Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
394 FXUS63 KEAX 160829 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 329 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers expected through the morning south of HWY-36. No severe weather expected at this time. - Isolated showers and storms possible Thursday afternoon for areas primarily south of I-70. - Nice weather expected for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 There is a surface low currently residing in MN with a weak surface boundary extending down into western MO. This boundary has provided enough lift resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms that are currently moving in from eastern KS. These storms are expected to move to the east of our area later this morning/early afternoon. No severe weather is expected with these storms. Friday morning, a trough moves in from the southwest of our area. Additional rounds of showers are expected mainly south of I-70. Due to weak shear and CAPE values, no severe weather is expected at this time. Saturday, mid-level ridging will build into the area resulting in dry conditions. A nice weekend is expected with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Sunday night into Monday morning, a surface low pushes to the northwest of the area over South Dakota. As a result, our winds shift to the south and begin advecting warm, moist air from the Gulf slowly increasing instability. An embedded shortwave also moves through the area which could lead to some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in eastern KS/western MO. Storms are anticipated to move eastward through early Monday morning. Stronger instability and increased moisture are expected to the southwest of our area, which suggests the higher potential of severe weather south of the CWA. For Monday, another mid-level trough pushes through the area from the west. At the lower levels, a surface low moves in from the southwest. The associated cold front is expected to pass through Monday night into Tuesday. Winds shift to the south out ahead leading to increased instability for our region. There is a potential for some strong to severe storms with the passage of the frontal boundary. The next chance for precipitation will be Tuesday afternoon as another trough moves through the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Conditions across the terminals range from VFR to LIFR (STJ). Expect conditions to worsen with thunderstorms moving in from the west around 7Z-8Z and fog continuing to develop for STJ. Thunderstorms are expected to move to the east of the terminals by 9Z-10Z. Fog at STJ is expected to dissipate by 15Z. Winds will be fairly weak and variable for the duration of the TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier