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046
FXUS61 KCLE 150743
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will slowly move east across the area today as low
pressure tracks east across the Ohio River Valley and off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure returns for Thursday. Another
low pressure system will impact the area late this week, moving a
warm front north on Friday followed by a cold front east late
Saturday into Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A surface low centered over southern IL/IN will continue to drift
east today as an upper level trough allows the system to be a bit
more progressive. With this, a near stationary boundary over NW OH
will also become progressive and move east across the area as a weak
cold front. Overall synoptic and mesoscale forcing continues to
remain very weak allowing for only isolated, light showers to occur
this morning and into the early afternoon. Ahead of the boundary
this afternoon, models suggest a nose of increased instability
pushing north over the eastern portion of the CWA which should
provide additional support for shower development ahead of the the
departing boundary this afternoon into the early evening. There
remains a slight chance of thunder, but no severe weather is
expected. By tonight, high pressure will build over the area and
allow for any lingering showers to diminish from west to east. This
high will remain dominant through Thursday.

Highs today will reach into the upper 60s to low 70s before warming
a bit on Thursday into the mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the
low to mid 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Isentropic lift will increase Thursday night as a warm front moves
across the region into early Friday. The entire region should be in
the warm sector by Friday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms
possible. We are concerned that we are setting ourselves up to a
similar scenario to what is currently going on over OH early this
morning with only scattered coverage for the most part. However we
will go with likely POP`s for now and adjust from there over the
next couple days. A weakening cold front sags southward across the
region Friday night into Saturday as low pressure move eastward near
the Ohio Valley. So expect to see rain chances through Saturday
night but it doesnt look like much more than scattered coverage.
Maybe slightly higher chances across the southern half of the CWA
near the weak frontal boundary. Above average temperatures are
expected through the short term period.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Models are differing on the timing of some weak pieces of jet energy
that look to ride the north side of an upper level ridge that should
build overhead. Not overly confident in shower/thunderstorm chances.
However there is enough of a signal to at least mention them in the
forecast. Isolated to scattered in coverage if they end up forming
at all. Temperatures become more summer-like in the long term
period, especially Monday into Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Primarily VFR conditions continue across the area tonight with
scattered light showers being reported primarily across portions
of NW OH. Looking upstream, a mixed bag of MVFR and IFR ceilings
are being reported which are expected to gradually build over
the area in the coming hours. Have opted to bring all terminals
down to MVFR this morning into the early afternoon hours with
the exception of KMFD where there is higher confidence in IFR
ceiling heights. In addition, the aforementioned showers should
scattered more to the east over the next couple hours, although
the scattered nature will persist as weak synoptic and surface
forcing inhibit any organization of showers. With high
uncertainty in the placement of these showers opted to handle
any overnight and early Wednesday precipitation with a TEMPO. As
the cold front pushes east it will slow again somewhere along or
east of I71 late this morning into the early afternoon. Ahead of
this boundary, there will be an increase in instability which
should provide additional support for shower development and the
potential of a few rumbles of thunder. Opted to include this
line of showers in the KCAK, KYNG, and KERI TAFs where
confidence is highest, but will continue to monitor for any
shift west.

Winds through the period will persist out of the northeast at
4-10 knots before becoming light and variable Wednesday night.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
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Northerly winds in the wake of a weakening cold front will occur on
the lake today. Speeds shouldn`t exceed 15 knots. So it will be
difficult to build waves beyond 3 feet. At this point a small craft
advisory is not anticipated, although it likely becomes choppy in
the nearshore waters. The lake is impacted by another weakening
storm system Thursday night through Saturday. Winds return to the
south ahead of a cold front on Friday but speeds should remain under
12 knots. A weakening cold front sags southward across the lake
Friday night which will help to direct low pressure across southern
OH on Saturday. The main impact on the lake will be to turn winds to
the east and northeast Saturday into Saturday night. However wind
speeds should be under 15 knots so no small craft advisories are
anticipated.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...MM