-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
580
FXUS61 KCLE 010525
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
125 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front tracks through tonight into early Tuesday. High
pressure will build into the region for Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Another cold front will move through the area early
Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9:30 PM Update...

Convection has exited the area, with just some lingering showers
along and south of the US 30 corridor. The cold front is still
upstream across Lower Michigan and will move through late
tonight and Tuesday morning. The atmosphere is pretty worked
over from the earlier convection, and this along with poor
diurnal timing will limit anything organized overnight. With
this all being said, just some additional showers are expected
with the front late tonight and Tuesday morning, and the severe
weather and flooding threat has ended. Updated PoPs to reflect
much lower coverage the rest of this evening into tonight.

Original Discussion...

Scattered convection across the region is working to increase in
coverage for the afternoon and evening hours as southwest flow
aloft becomes more active ahead of a cold front tonight. Low
level moisture advection on the increase during this time frame
with a budding low level jet over the eastern CWA this afternoon,
and have some concerns going forward on this moisture
converging in terms of multiple rounds of storms over western
Pennsylvania. Have added a Flood Watch to this area as a
result. Should have decent progression of individual storms and
clusters, and mainly concerned with repeated hits to the same
area through early tonight. As has been the case much of the
last week to ten days, have a high PWAT atmosphere and also a
relatively wet recent history for the area. Rapid update models
are hinting at a lull in the action early tonight before
additional storms with the cold front come through towards
morning. This may be more of a southern Ohio issue late tonight,
however. Cold front through the CWA Tuesday morning, but some
convection could fire up again along the southeastern fringe of
the CWA with the upper trough axis trailing behind. Otherwise,
high pressure will settle into the southern Great Lakes and the
forecast ultimately dries out completely later Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Not a huge change in the airmass, with only about
2-4 degrees cooler and the same change for the dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure influences will fairly rapidly exit the CWA
Wednesday night with another cold front entering the picture
from the northwest, through the CWA by early Thursday afternoon.
Low POPs with this cold front. Upper level ridging builds back
in over the Mississippi Valley Thursday into Thursday night with
surface high pressure over the lower Ohio Valley. Airmass
modification leads to a slight uptick in temperatures from
Wednesday into Thursday, as temperatures overall remain slightly
above normal across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure shifts east, and puts the CWA in return flow and
back into the warm sector as low pressure tracks from the
northern plains towards James Bay in Canada. Probably back into
the lower 90s for many areas at this point for the weekend,
ahead of a late weekend cold front. POPs through the long term
overall are on the lower side. Likely cooler into Monday in the
wake of yet another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
This aviation period should be a bit calmer than yesterday given
high pressure is expected to slowly build across the area.
Currently, an area of convection over southern Indiana is
continuing to produce heavy rainfall and diminished aviation
conditions. This system is expected to track northeast towards
the area tonight, although weakening as it does. The current
projected timing of this system will bring the potential for
showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern terminals
first beginning around 10Z and expanding north east through late
morning before conditions quickly dry out. Periods of heavy rain
will likely result in non-VFR visibilities at terminals with as
low as IFR possible in the heaviest showers. By this afternoon,
all conditions should rebound to VFR and persist for the
remainder of the period.

In addition to the potential convection later tonight/early this
morning, patchy fog may supersede showers at terminals including
KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. Not expecting visibilities to drop much
below MVFR but will need to continue to monitor given the fact
that there will not be much time between potential fog
development and onset of precipitation.

Winds through late morning will remain light and variable before
increasing from the west-northwest to 5-10 knots. After sunset,
winds will return to light and variable.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected through
Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front has lifted north of the lake this morning, allowing
for winds to shift and become southwest at 5-10 knots. These
conditions will persist today until a cold front moves east
tonight into Tuesday. During the shift from southwest to more
west-northwesterly, winds will briefly increase up to 15 knots.
By Tuesday morning, these winds will persist with onshore flow
resulting in waves building to 1-3 feet across the central and
eastern lakeshores. High pressure building in behind the
departing front will allow for winds to gradually weaken once
again to 5-10 knots through Wednesday night. Another cold front
is expected to arrive on Thursday, once again shifting winds to
have a more northerly component. No marine headlines are
anticipated through the next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04/Kahn