-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
192
FXUS61 KCLE 151040
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
640 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move east across the area today as low
pressure tracks east across the Ohio River Valley and off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure returns for Thursday. Another
low pressure system will impact the area late this week, moving a
warm front north on Friday followed by a cold front east late
Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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630 AM Update...
Showers this morning have finally arrived across the south
central portion of the CWA and are gradually spreading north.
Adjusted the timing and location of PoPs to reflect this and
delayed the onset of any precipitation a bit more for the
eastern counties. Unfortunately with this slow moving system
clouds will linger throughout the day. Aside from these minor
adjustments, no other changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
A surface low centered over southern IL/IN will continue to
drift east today as an upper level trough allows the system to
be a bit more progressive. With this, a near stationary boundary
over NW OH will also become progressive and move east across
the area as a weak cold front. Overall synoptic and mesoscale
forcing continues to remain very weak allowing for only
isolated, light showers to occur this morning and into the early
afternoon. Ahead of the boundary this afternoon, models suggest
a nose of increased instability pushing north over the eastern
portion of the CWA which should provide additional support for
shower development ahead of the the departing boundary this
afternoon into the early evening. There remains a slight chance
of thunder, but no severe weather is expected. By tonight, high
pressure will build over the area and allow for any lingering
showers to diminish from west to east. This high will remain
dominant through Thursday.

Highs today will reach into the upper 60s to low 70s before warming
a bit on Thursday into the mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the
low to mid 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Isentropic lift will increase Thursday night as a warm front moves
across the region into early Friday. The entire region should be in
the warm sector by Friday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms
possible. We are concerned that we are setting ourselves up to a
similar scenario to what is currently going on over OH early this
morning with only scattered coverage for the most part. However we
will go with likely POP`s for now and adjust from there over the
next couple days. A weakening cold front sags southward across the
region Friday night into Saturday as low pressure move eastward near
the Ohio Valley. So expect to see rain chances through Saturday
night but it doesnt look like much more than scattered coverage.
Maybe slightly higher chances across the southern half of the CWA
near the weak frontal boundary. Above average temperatures are
expected through the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are differing on the timing of some weak pieces of jet energy
that look to ride the north side of an upper level ridge that should
build overhead. Not overly confident in shower/thunderstorm chances.
However there is enough of a signal to at least mention them in the
forecast. Isolated to scattered in coverage if they end up forming
at all. Temperatures become more summer-like in the long term
period, especially Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
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Low pressure entering the Ohio River Valley has pushed light
rain showers north into the southern portion of the area,
bringing with it diminishing conditions from VFR to MVFR and
even dipping into IFR at various terminals. The general trend
will be for these conditions to push across the remainder of the
terminals this morning with low ceilings being the primary
driver of diminished conditions. As the aforementioned low
pressure continues to move east, a cold front will push east
across the area aiding in shower development. The best chance of
more widespread precipitation with a chance of thunder will be
ahead of this boundary this afternoon when diurnal instability
peaks. Have included the mentioned of VCTS or TSRA in terminals
along and east of I71. Behind the boundary, conditions this
afternoon will rebound to VFR but lingering moisture will
reintroduce MVFR conditions tonight as light and variable winds
coupled with moisture may result in patchy fog development.

Winds through the period will persist out of the northeast at
5-12 knots before becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds in the wake of a weakening cold front will occur on
the lake today. Speeds shouldn`t exceed 15 knots. So it will be
difficult to build waves beyond 3 feet. At this point a small craft
advisory is not anticipated, although it likely becomes choppy in
the nearshore waters. The lake is impacted by another weakening
storm system Thursday night through Saturday. Winds return to the
south ahead of a cold front on Friday but speeds should remain under
12 knots. A weakening cold front sags southward across the lake
Friday night which will help to direct low pressure across southern
OH on Saturday. The main impact on the lake will be to turn winds to
the east and northeast Saturday into Saturday night. However wind
speeds should be under 15 knots so no small craft advisories are
anticipated.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...MM