278
FXUS65 KMSO 151916
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
116 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...Recent model trends are showing increased agreement
for a trough to move in on Thursday and deepen over central Idaho
and western Montana by Friday.

On Thursday, expect a ridge flattening which will bring another
day of above-average temperatures. However, it`ll also strengthen
the westerly and southwesterly pressure gradient, leading to gusty
winds. Most areas have a 70-90% chance of gusts over 35 mph. Wind
advisories have been issued for the Flathead/Mission and
Missoula/Bitterroot valleys Thursday afternoon, with winds
expected to ease up by evening, remaining breezy overnight.

Friday brings cooler temperatures and increased shower chances as
a cold front passes and the trough arrives. Breezy conditions
kick off the day and are forecast to intensify with the frontal
passage. Expect common 35-40 mph wind gusts, with west-central and
southwest Montana having a 60-80% chance of gusts over 40 mph,
possibly prompting more wind advisories.

After a brief return to average temperatures on Saturday, Sunday
looks cooler again, with models converging on a trough dominating
the region. There`s a 30-50% chance of a wet closed low between
Monday and Wednesday within the model clusters.


&&

.AVIATION...This afternoon`s satellite loops show fair weather
cumulus clouds forming over the terrain, while high cloud cover
moves in from the northwest. As mixing continues into the evening,
expect winds of 10-20 knots to remain common.

Looking ahead to Thursday, the ridge of high pressure is expected
to flatten, leading to a tightening pressure gradient. This will
increase the likelihood of wind gusts exceeding 30 knots in the
afternoon, with a 70-90% chance.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...None.
&&

$$