454
FXUS65 KMSO 140812
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...Scattered rainshowers will continue to spread across
western Montana through the morning hours. Other than brief
reduction in visibility as the showers pass overhead, impacts
through the mid morning hours will be minimal. After some warming
early this afternoon, a few thunderstorms may develop, most
likely east of the Highway 93 corridor along the Continental
Divide.

We continue to track a relatively strong jet stream poised to
move south out of British Columbia into northwest Montana Thursday
morning. This will allow for a tightening of the westerly
pressure gradient, producing gusty west winds by the early
afternoon. Probabilities are quite high (70-90%) for widespread
wind gusts of 30 mph, with scattered locations, particularly the
mid slopes and higher, seeing gusts reaching 40 mph. Area lakes,
especially Flathead Lake, can expect to experience choppy
conditions during the afternoon and evening hours. The jet will
continue to slowly move south through the late afternoon,
spreading these gusty winds throughout the rest of western Montana
and north-central Idaho. Outside of the higher terrain, the
strongest gusts of 40 mph will occur along I-90 from Drummond to
Butte.

For Friday, breezy conditions will continue, along with scattered
rainshowers developing across northwest Montana as a surface low
dives south out of British Columbia. The majority of the ensemble
forecast models continue to show a breezy, cool, and unsettled
weather pattern setting up over the region through the weekend.
40% of these models show a much deeper trough, resulting in more
widespread cool and wet conditions with snowlevels lowering to
5500-6000 feet. Stay tuned to future forecast changes.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rainshowers will continue to spread across
western Montana through the morning hours. Other than brief
reduction in visibility as the showers pass overhead, impacts
through the mid morning hours will be minimal. Later this
afternoon isolated thunderstorms will be possible, mostly likely
remaining confined to the Continental Divide and in the vicinity
of KBTM between the hours of 14/1900Z-14/2300Z.





&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$