305
FXUS65 KMSO 171956
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
156 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

.DISCUSSION...Westerly wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be the main
impact as a cold front pushes through the Northern Rockies this
afternoon. Brief, localized gusts over 50 mph will also occur
near ongoing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Southwest Montana and the Missoula/Bitterroot valleys will be the
most susceptible to these isolated convection induced stronger
gusts. Lakes will continue to be choppy as well, so use caution
if you are recreating on the water. Valley winds and showers will
gradually diminish this evening.

Given the lighter winds, dry air, and partial clearing tonight,
lows will drop into the low to mid 30s in lower western Montana
and higher central Idaho valleys. Protect any sensitive vegetation
that is susceptible to frost. Saturday will be a fairly nice day
overall under zonal flow. Valley high temperatures return to
seasonable levels (mid/upper 60s) along with afternoon breezes and
a few showers returning by late afternoon.

Upper level troughing settles in Sunday accompanied by cooler
temperatures and scattered showers. Snow levels drop to around
5000 feet but no impact is anticipated for road surfaces. There is
a 30-50% probability of at least 0.25 inch of precipitation from
the Flathead Valley eastward into the Glacier region. Overall,
precipitation amounts will be light for the rest of the Northern
Rockies.

As the trough lingers, scattered instability showers pop up on
Monday afternoon. Frost will continue to be a concern in valleys early
next week but overnight temperatures will be very dependent on
cloud cover.

By next Wednesday- Friday (22nd-24th), about 80% of ensemble
clusters support a pattern favorable for closed low development
across the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies. Closed lows often
bring widespread precipitation to the Northern Rockies this time
of year, stay tuned!


&&

.AVIATION...Westerly winds gusting 30-40 kts will be the main
impact of a cold front pushing through the Northern Rockies this
afternoon. Brief, localized gusts over 45 kts will also occur near
ongoing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Southwest
Montana and the Missoula/Bitterroot valleys will be the most
susceptible to these isolated convection induced stronger
gusts. Showers will briefly lead to visibility and ceiling
reductions at terminal sites with mountain obscurations common.
Valley winds and showers diminish around sunset with breezy
afternoon winds again on Saturday.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Flathead/Mission
     Valleys.

ID...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eastern Lemhi
     County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$