054
FXUS62 KFFC 150235
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1035 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024


.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

As the warm front advances northeastward, scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed within the warm sector, mainly along
a line roughly from Columbus to Macon. Meanwhile, a broken line of
showers and thunderstorms is advancing into far northwest Georgia
ahead of the cold front to the west. With the loss of daytime
heating, the threat for severe weather has diminished accordingly.
With MLCAPE values of over 500 J/kg and deep layer bulk shear
between 30-40 kts, an isolated storm or two may become strong
enough to produce gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Currently, the warm front is draped across central Georgia just
north of a line from Lagrange to Macon and will continue to attempt
to progress northward. The northward progression this morning has
been somewhat slow as the relatively cooler airmass over north
Georgia from the earlier isentropically lifted showers is in place.
The big question today will be how far north and east that boundary
will drift as the cool airmass across far northeast Georgia may be
able to hang on a bit longer than models suggest. While the wedge of
cooler air typically wins out most days, this is likely not going to
be the case today with only light rainfall amounts observed. Current
satellite trends reveal some clearing cloud coverage along and just
north of the I-20 corridor. As the surface is able to warm, that
boundary should be able to drift northward with relative ease. If
locations are able to get enough diurnal surface heating this
afternoon, a conditional severe weather threat is expected to play
out this afternoon and evening. As the upper level shortwave passes
overhead with the surface low passing to our north later this
afternoon/evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
to fire within the warm sector and along the frontal boundary.
Storms may become multicell clusters as they march eastward. With an
increasing gradient of SBCAPE ~500+ J/kg from north Georgia to 1500
J/kg across northern central Georgia, low level lapse rates around
6.5 C/km, and effective bulk shear between 30-40KT, a few storms
could become strong to severe. The best chance for severe weather
will be across north Georgia today where there is better upper level
support in place. SPC has placed these locations in a Slight Risk
(Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather with areas further south in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather. The greatest
hazard in any thunderstorm this afternoon and evening will be
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Hail up to 1 inch may also be
possible in the strongest storms with mid level lapse rates around 6
C/km. While there is a nonzero threat for a brief spin up tornado,
those probabilities are on the lower end today.

Overnight, the cold front to our west will push through the area.
Moisture wrapping around the backside of the low pressure system
could produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday for areas north of the I-20 corridor. However, the
environment to support strong to severe storms will not be as robust
tomorrow as it is today. A few storms could still become strong
tomorrow with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the primary
concerns. Rainfall through the short term forecast period will be
around a quarter to a half inch, with locally higher amounts
possible in the strongest storms. Maximum high temperatures today in
the 70s to low 80s are trending cooler than average, but will
rebound tomorrow closer to climatological norms with highs topping
out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will only drop to the
60s thanks to considerable cloud coverage.

KAL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Beginning the long term with Thursday, ridging looks to be firmly in
place over Georgia with the low pressure system off into the
Atlantic. Sfc high pressure and NW winds will lead to conditions
drying out and an overall pleasant albeit slightly breezy day.
Pattern change comes Friday as the low -pressure system over Texas
moves over the mid Mississippi valley. At the surface we have seen
rain chances backing off for Friday as this system has slowed down
slightly. The system looks to begin affecting our area Friday
overnight into Saturday. Current thinking is that the low pressure
system is to move out over the Atlantic by the end of the weekend,
with rain chances tapering off Sunday into Monday. There does still
remain model spread when it comes to if this system affects north
and central GA or if it is more a central GA affected area. The
dynamics and instability exist further towards central GA so this
will be our main area to watch for thunderstorm activity but overall
not expecting a big severe event.

One thing we have been keeping an eye on is the amount of rainfall
expected. We are currently looking at forecasted PWs at 2-2.5" which
is high for this time of year based on climatology. This is mostly a
swath over central and southern GA (generally south of the fall
line) which is a slight positive in that area. Should this system
move through fast, we probably won`t see as much affect for flooding
but should the storms and showers decide to stick around there will
be more of a flooding threat for this area. The slight risk for
flooding is just barely clipping the Columbus area so as models come
into more agreement tomorrow and THursday we will get a better idea
of the threat possible when it comes to flooding.  Current QPF
values are up to 2.5-2.75" for this area.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Ceilings have improved through the afternoon, reaching VFR as the
TAF period begins. MVFR ceilings are forecast to redevelop by
02-03Z this evening, along with increased coverage of SHRA/TSRA.
As a cluster of storms moves in from the northwest and more storms
continue to develop from west-central Georgia, the most likely
time for TSRA at the ATL sites appears to be from 02-06Z.
Ceilings are anticipated to drop to IFR by 08Z on Wednesday
morning, with some scattered LIFR clouds possible. Cannot rule out
the development of LIFR ceilings in the early morning hours, but
this will depend on how much rainfall occurs this evening at a
given site. PROB30 for SHRA/TSRA will return on Wednesday
afternoon for northern TAF sites. Winds will be primarily SW at
5-10 kts through the morning hours, shifting to W at 8-12 kts with
occasional gusts up to 20 kts on Wednesday afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on winds.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  80  61  86 /  30  30  20   0
Atlanta         64  80  62  85 /  40  30  20   0
Blairsville     58  73  57  78 / 100  70  50   0
Cartersville    61  79  59  84 /  50  40  30   0
Columbus        66  83  62  88 /  30  10   0   0
Gainesville     63  77  62  84 /  40  50  30   0
Macon           65  83  62  88 /  20  10  10   0
Rome            61  79  59  85 /  60  50  30   0
Peachtree City  63  81  61  86 /  40  20  10   0
Vidalia         69  86  66  88 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...King