553
FXUS62 KFFC 160000
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
800 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The main focus for this AFD is the showers ongoing over the area
with isolated thunderstorms. Overall, expecting very summerlike pop
up showers when it comes to this afternoon and evening, with no real
severe threat. After the upper level low centered over Tennessee
causing these showers moves to the east, your forecast should remain
dry until Friday. Gusty winds will be the main concern with gusts up
to 25mph this afternoon into the evening.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The first 2 days of the extended period will likely be the majority
of the sensible weather for the extended period. The period begins
with a mid level disturbance located over the Mid MS valley early
Friday within the modest mid level flow of the jet extending back
over TX and Mexico. The tail end of the CAMS including the WRF FV3,
ARW, NAM3km and HRRR in fairly good agreement that a remnant or
decaying MCS could be approaching the region by early Friday..which
is entirely possible given upper support and surface based
instability available to the west of the region during the day on
Thu. If that`s the case, early Friday may be more of a rain shield
with embedded thunderstorms type of start to the day...which in turn
could limit the amount of destabilization that occurs during the day
Friday. The NAM3km tries to surge north much higher CAPE values
behind the departing MCS but fails to reach the southern CWA by the
end of the run Friday eve. Similar to the thinking in the previous
AFD, there is likely going to be a significant increase in
instability toward the gulf coast which may act serve as a deterrent
to convection further north and help keep the main axis of any MCS
development further to the south. All of that being said, there is
still a higher likelihood of widespread showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms north of any MCS which tracks to the south...hence NBM
guidance is ranging 60-80 pops late Friday through Saturday.

Saturday`s forecast remains a bit more uncertain given the
uncertainty in how Friday plays out, however, given the proximity of
the upper support over TN, modest mid and upper level jet energy,
sufficient deep and low level shear, there is a risk for severe
storms early through mid day Saturday....under the assumption that an
MCS to the south or early in the day doesn`t disrupt surface heating
processes. GFS soundings for W. GA midday Saturday certainly support
a severe risk, but given the many uncertainties in how things evolve
leading into Saturday, SPC correctly went the conservative route
with no outlined risk for Saturday. The CSU MLP severe risk outlined
for Day 4(Saturday) is in line with what the potential could be IF
other factors don`t come into play, which is possibly a 15% including
some Tor and wind risk. Stay tuned for updates.

Beyond Saturday...the main upper system from Friday/Saturday shifts
east and basically becomes stationary well offshore of the SE
coastline, but close enough to keep the region within a mid level NW
flow and pleasant weather through the remainder of the extended
period.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity has mostly been winding down over
the last hour or so. There are a few showers over N GA that have
increased in intensity a bit as some lingering shortwave energy
skirts by, but they should begin to weaken again with the loss of
daytime heating. Gusty winds are diminishing at this time. VFR
conditions are expected overnight with light W-NW winds. Light winds
will continue during the day Thu with few clouds.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High for all elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  86  61  80 /   0   0  10  50
Atlanta         61  86  65  80 /   0   0  10  60
Blairsville     57  79  57  74 /  20   0  20  70
Cartersville    57  85  62  79 /  10   0  20  60
Columbus        62  89  67  84 /   0   0  20  60
Gainesville     61  85  62  77 /   0   0  10  60
Macon           63  88  65  84 /  10   0  10  40
Rome            58  86  62  80 /   0   0  20  70
Peachtree City  60  87  63  80 /   0   0  20  60
Vidalia         65  88  68  87 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...SEC