Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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341 FXUS62 KFFC 150746 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 346 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 339 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Key Messages: - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. - A warming trend will arrive Thursday as high temperatures return to the mid and upper 80s. Today through Thursday: The driving forces behind today`s weather will be an upper level trough and surface low over the southern Appalachians. Westerly flow around both features will bring westerly winds to the region today. Gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range can be expected between noon and 6 PM today. Once the winds and diurnal heating kick in this morning, the ongoing low clouds and patchy fog should dissipate. By this afternoon diurnal heating should be sufficient to produce MLCAPE values between 400 and 800 J/kg. This instability should help widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop between noon and 8 PM today. Given the modest instability and weak shear (~20 kt), severe weather isn`t expected. The best thunderstorms chances should be over northern Georgia this afternoon where 700-500 mb lapse rates will be highest (near 5.5 C/km). Smaller lapse rates and narrow mid level CAPE profiles should make thunder harder to come by in central Georgia. Any rainfall today is expected to be light, brief and spotty in nature. Cloud cover should inhibit temperatures today, especially in northern Georgia where highs in the 70s are expected. More sunshine and a greater distance from the trough should allow highs to reach the mid 80s from Macon southward. Any lingering rain showers will dissipate quickly tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. By Thursday, the upper level trough that has been with us for a couple days will be replaced by a transient upper level ridge. Subsidence from the ridge should bring fair skies and dry weather to the region on Thursday. Temperatures should respond accordingly by rising to 3 to 6 degrees above seasonal averages. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 339 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Beginning of the long term forecast sees our next weather system moving into the area. By Friday morning, several of the 00Z convective allowing guidance show a reasonable scenario, in which moisture is being lifted isentropically across the area ahead of the upper level low moving out of the southern Great Plains. This will likely be relatively light to moderate rain, though can`t rule out some elevated convective elements. Going forward, have chosen to "cap" our PoPs a bit here in the CWA Friday night and Saturday, as beginning to think we may see similar evolution convectively to the weather system moving through the area now. Most models, including ensembles, show a pretty sharp theta-e gradient down towards the coast, and the development of the surface low in tangent with the moving upper level low isn`t anything too special. This keeps the surface mass response modest and the theta-e gradient further south. This would likely be reinforced by any rain/T-storm development along and north of the gradient with rain-cooled air. Some of the deterministic guidance shows the potential for MCS development upstream that would likely stay along said theta-e gradient, which would keep the heaviest rainfall and thunderstorms out of the CWA (though some rain is likely to still occur). That all said, if that doesn`t play out, there is certainly the potential to see some decent rainfall out of the system as plenty of moisture returns, with the higher probabilities towards central GA which would have the best chance of seeing an organized convective system. QPF amounts are in the 1-3" range at this time, but understand that the overall potential spread is high dependent on how convection plays out...and this forecaster will fully admit to not being good enough to tell you those details 48-72 hours out. The system looks to finally lumber its way out by Sunday. Some precip chances linger as the upper level trough still could form a surface low off the coast, but guidance has shifted that a bit to be less impactful to our CWA. We should get a few days of clearing thanks to shortwave ridging that builds into the area. Moisture begins to return by Tuesday thanks to upper level system to the north, and PoP chances will slowly increase as diurnal thunderstorms become possibly (summer is almost upon us). Our next system may be impacting us by mid next week, but that is well out into the realm of uncertainty. Temperatures on days without rainfall should be pretty seasonable, generally within 5 degrees of climatology. Lusk && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible in the region through 12Z. Impacts are most probable at KMCN or KCSG. Low ceilings (200-2500 ft AGL) and patchy fog will also be possible. These conditions may impact any of the TAF sites for a brief period, mainly between 09Z and 13Z Wednesday. A transition to prevailing VFR conditions and more consistent west winds is expected between 13Z and 18Z Wednesday. Isolated showers and storms are possible between 16Z Wednesday and 02Z Thursday. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Overall confidence in the ATL TAF is moderate. Confidence in the ceiling, visibility and precipitation forecasts is moderate. High confidence in the wind forecast. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 79 61 86 62 / 30 10 0 0 Atlanta 80 61 86 65 / 30 0 0 10 Blairsville 72 57 79 57 / 60 20 0 0 Cartersville 78 58 84 61 / 40 10 0 10 Columbus 83 62 88 66 / 0 0 0 10 Gainesville 77 61 85 63 / 40 10 0 0 Macon 84 62 87 65 / 10 10 0 0 Rome 79 58 85 62 / 40 10 0 10 Peachtree City 80 60 86 63 / 20 0 0 10 Vidalia 86 66 88 67 / 10 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...Albright