Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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096 FXUS63 KLSX 130846 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 346 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Waves of numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected from late this morning through Tuesday afternoon. An isolated strong thunderstorm with gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall is possible this afternoon and evening. - The next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will be between Wednesday night and late Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An upper-level closed low, apparent across the Central Plains in early morning GOES-16 water vapor imagery, is progged to approach the Mid-Mississippi River Valley today and slowly pass overhead late tonight into Tuesday, leading to an extended period of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Coverage will increase this morning as large-scale ascent ahead of the closed low overspreads the CWA, but one or more waves of numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected between late morning and late this evening as subtle shortwave troughs round the closed low in tandem with bands of enhanced low-level WAA and moisture convergence. Showers and thunderstorms may be relatively more persistent in northeastern MO and west-central IL today, in proximity to a stationary front. Widespread cloud cover and rounds of precip will limit high temperatures to the low to mid-70s as well as overall instability. However, some surface-based destabilization through weak insolation in thinner/broken clouds is indicated to generate SBCAPE up to locally 1000 J/kg, with highest probabilities of SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg in the latest HREF across central, east-central, and southeastern MO late this afternoon. Deep-layer wind shear will remain rather weak (20 to 30 kt) for this amount of instability, but some loose organization/aggregating of thunderstorms into a few multicell clusters could occur. Modest low and mid-level lapse rates will limit thunderstorm intensity, but an isolated thunderstorm with gusty winds or small hail is possible this afternoon and evening in central, east-central, and southeastern MO. A relative lull in showers and thunderstorms is anticipated late this evening into Tuesday morning with a nocturnal decrease in instability and a gap in deeper large-scale ascent between shortwave troughs and the arrival of the closed low itself Tuesday morning. However, abundant low-level moisture and low-level convergence/ascent associated with a weak surface cyclone tracking into the CWA will be favorable for areas of drizzle and fog to develop overnight into Tuesday morning. Redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms is expected late Tuesday morning through the afternoon across much of the area behind the closed low and surface cyclone within weak large-scale deformation and daytime destabilization. Showers and thunderstorms will end rather quickly Tuesday evening as the sun sets the closed low continues to pull away. Similar to today, clouds and precip will keep temperatures cool and slightly below average. The HREF interquartile range of total rainfall from today through Tuesday evening is between 0.25 and 1" across the CWA, with the highest amounts being achieved where there are multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Locally heavier rainfall cannot be ruled out where thunderstorms become slow-moving or can backbuild, captured by the HREF localized probability matched mean (LPMM) containing very localized amounts of 2 to 4" of total rainfall. However, the threat of any flash flooding appears low, since soils have recently had some time to dry and any heavy rainfall should be very localized. Pfahler && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Sunday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, there are still differences across global model guidance regarding the upper-level wave pattern over the CONUS, but there is at least better agreement on the longwave pattern. An upper-level ridge is anticipated to dominate the Mid-Mississippi River Valley with dry conditions on Wednesday, followed by passage of an upper-level trough around Thursday and Friday. Uncertainties associated with this trough are how it interacts with a southern stream trough/closed low ejecting out of the Inter-Mountain West and the presence and timing of embedded shortwave troughs. Despite a range in potential trough evolutions, a vast majority of ensemble model membership contains showers and thunderstorms across the CWA at some point between Wednesday night and late Friday but coverage will be impacted by trough structure. A small portion of ensemble model members continue showers and thunderstorms through the upcoming weekend with slower ejection of the southern stream trough, others are dry with upper-level ridging. Temperatures through the rest of the weekend into the upcoming weekend are more clear--a gradual warming trend after Tuesday with temperatures returning to average at the end of the work week and then above average over the weekend. This notion is well-supported by warming of NBM interquartile temperature ranges through that time. Pfahler && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A weather system will continue its eastward trek overnight and bring with it increased chances for rain showers. Expect increasing cloud cover with lowering ceilings as this system makes its way into the region by Monday morning. Rain chances will continue to increase through the day on Monday and persist through the TAF period. Confidence in embedded thunderstorms on Monday afternoon remains lower, therefore stuck with the mention of VCTS. MVFR ceilings are forecasted to accompany rain showers and impact each terminal. Confidence in IFR ceilings late Monday night remains low but cannot be completely ruled out, especially at KUIN and the St. Louis Metropolitan terminals. Visibility reductions in the heaviest rain showers are possible. MMG/Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX