704
FXUS63 KLSX 160322
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1022 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather returns to the region late tonight through
  Friday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
  Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois could see locally
  heavy rainfall that could produce minor flooding on Friday.

- Warmer weather returns to the region late in the weekend and
  through next week. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees above
  normal by Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A weak surface ridge will continue to slide off to the southeast
tonight as the next system over the Northern/Central Plains moves
into western MO by 06z Thursday. A warm front will develop along the
MO/AR border this evening and lift northward as an upper level
shortwave associated with the system lifts northeastward out of the
Southern Plains. Still some uncertainty on the exact location of the
warm front through the period and where the main axis of showers and
storms will develop. The latest deterministic model runs range from
across northern MO (NAM) to across southern MO (GFS), while the
majority of the HREF ensembles have the main axis along and south of
I-70 tonight through Thursday. So kept the highest POPs along and
south of I-70. Since the activity will take awhile to reach the
region, still have high confidence that it will be weakening as it
moves into the area due to weakening instability and veering low
level jet. There is still some uncertainty on how much the
atmosphere will recover by Thursday afternoon due to the morning
rain and cloud cover. However, as a remnant MCV, associated with the
morning activity, slides along the MO/AR border Thursday afternoon
combined with MU CAPEs between 1000-2000 J/kg and 0 to 6km bulk
shear of 30 to 40 kts, could see isolated severe storms develop over
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, as well as a small
portion of east-central Missouri. The main threats will be damaging
winds and large hail between 2 pm and 8 pm Thursday.

The activity will taper off by late evening Thursday with the
boundary stalling out along the MO/AR border. This boundary will be
the focus for additional activity developing after 06z Friday as the
main shortwave/trough over the TX panhandle slowly slides east
northeast towards the region.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The shortwave with associated surface low will continue to slide
east northeast on Friday towards the forecast area. With the
surface boundary lingering across southern Missouri, the
combination of a southerly low level jet (25 to 35 kts), PWATS in
excess of 1.5 inches and deep layer ascent at the left exit region
of the upper jet will generate widespread showers and storms.
Thus portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois could
see locally heavy rainfall that could produce minor flooding on
Friday.

The latest ensembles as well as deterministic models still have
differences in timing, strength and location of the system as moves
through the region this weekend. For now still expect low chances
(20-40%) of showers and a few storms Friday night through Saturday,
especially across portions of east-central/southeast Missouri and
southwest/south-central Illinois. Otherwise, a majority of the
region will be dry this weekend.

Beyond the weekend, warmer weather is expected with above normal
temperatures by Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, there is the
potential for another active period as multiple shortwaves move
across the region.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Primary concern throughout the 06Z TAF period will be the
potential for scattered thunderstorms at various times, along with
lowering ceilings. A few weak showers and thunderstorms have
already developed in the vicinity of COU/JEF as of 03Z, and this
initial activity may periodically impact these areas over the next
several hours and into the beginning of the TAF period. More
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to move
into this area near daybreak and spread east, likely impacting
all terminals to varying degrees. This round is also likely to
drop ceilings to MVFR levels at times, potentially visibilities as
well.

A lull in shower activity is likely after this initial round by
mid afternoon. However, redeveloping thunderstorms will be
possible in the late afternoon and evening. Most of this activity
is likely to remain south of local terminals, but additional
showers and storms will be possible at all terminals. St. Louis
area terminals would be most likely to observe the strongest of
these storms, and this will all likely be followed by additional
showers and thunderstorms by early Friday morning.

BRC

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX