925
FXUS65 KGJT 160517
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1117 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
  again today and tomorrow. Gusty outflows, brief heavy rain,
  and small hail are the main threats.

- Drier and warmer conditions move in for this weekend, with
  temperatures running around 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Another shortwave trough is dropping southward today and will pass
over the Four Corners region this evening. As mentioned earlier the
wave from yesterday has dragged a dry slot over the central portion
of the forecast area. This midlevel dry air will impact the coverage
of showers and storms later today. The best chances for showers will
be in the southern mountains and adjacent valleys this afternoon and
evening. These showers may end up producing more wind than rain
with gusts upwards of 45 mph possible. More isolated showers are
possible across other locations in the area. The convection looks
to dissipate this evening towards sunset. Clouds will clear from
north to south tonight and low temperatures should not be much
different than this morning. If clouds hang around then temps
overnight may be warmer. Tomorrow the shortwave passes over New
Mexico which pulls more dry air into the region. The only place
that will still have moisture is the San Juans, so expect another
round of afternoon showers and storms. These storms will form in
the early afternoon and move southward over the highway 160
corridor through the evening. Brief heavy rain, small hail and
gusty winds are possible with these showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Our attention turns to a couple of upper level features Friday
morning for the weekend forecast. A shallow upper level trough moves
ashore over the PACNW behind the weak, tilted transitory ridge
breaking down ahead of the next disturbance(s). An offshore low in
the eastern Pacific is cutting off southward of the PACNW system.
The upper wave passing to our north will clip the north of the CWA
Friday afternoon with a weak shot of moisture dragging south of the
main front. This will likely just include some cloud cover for us,
but a few showers on the terrain will likely crop up. The pinched
low sitting in the Pacific lifts a front into the Four Corners by
Saturday afternoon. Winds will ratchet up turning west to southwest
Friday into Saturday and peaking Sunday with winds across the region
gusting into the 30 to 40 mph range according to current model
outputs. Another stream of moisture works in on the front and keeps
some shower activity alive for Saturday, mostly on the terrain
though. Forcing shifts northward on Sunday, along with showers.
Moisture looks rather stingy with this feature though, so cloud
cover may be the best we can do this weekend, along with the wind.
The broad low drifting across Canada starts pushing east on Sunday
and begins to pull the main front through the region Monday and
Tuesday. Winds will remain spirited as the front and the strong
winds aloft hold their grip on us Monday and Tuesday afternoon.
Shower activity should pick up Monday night too, waning by Tuesday
morning following the front. A few showers likely remain hung up on
the Divide Tuesday afternoon, but things dry out and winds shift
back southwest on Wednesday ahead of another low moving ashore in
the Northwest. Temperatures will feel summer-like across the area on
Friday and through the weekend in the generous warm air advection.
Some of our desert valleys will approach 90 degrees, while the
mountain towns will see temperatures approach the mid 70`s. This
warm trend will get knocked down early in the work week following
the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions under mid to high cloudiness is expected over the
next 24 hours. A few showers and storms are possible over SW
Colorado on Thursday afternoon but coverage will be limited
enough to omit from TAF forecast for now. Gusty winds remain the
main threat near storms.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...GJT