994
FXUS65 KGJT 170515
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1115 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and breezy conditions expected through the weekend.
  Temperatures up to 10 degrees over climatology expected.

- A frontal boundary straddling the CWA will spark additional
  showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Gusty
  outflows, lightning, and small hail are possible.

- Temperatures cool behind a front at the beginning of next
  week, then warm back up midweek and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

A loosely organized low is slowly drifting east across New Mexico
this afternoon. Wraparound moisture on its northern periphery is
interacting with the northerly orographics on the San Juans and
along the southern Continental Divide to produce a persistent batch
of thunderstorms and showers on the terrain. This will continue into
the early evening as the eastward progression of the low strips away
some moisture and sunset takes away some afternoon instability. A
few showers will likely get a longer lease on life in the Pagosa
Springs area as they remain within reach of forcing into the late
evening hours. A few gusty outflows are possible along the southern
shoulders of the San Juans as storms degrade. Things will quiet down
after midnight and clear skies will prevail overnight. The tap of
cooler, drier air gets turned off on Friday, as we shift more
westerly ahead of another weak frontal boundary settling southward,
thanks to the broad trough working across the Intermountain West to
our north. An isolated shower can`t be ruled out Friday afternoon
along the northern half of the CWA. Winds aloft pick up too, so
gusty surface winds(25-35 mph) north of the Colorado River can be
expected. Elsewhere, hot and dry conditions quickly take charge, with
desert valleys in the upper 80`s and the mountain valleys in the
50`s and 60`s Friday afternoon. A few clouds along the frontal
boundary will take some bite out of the warm and sunny conditions.
Some of this cloud cover sticks around Friday evening and into the
overnight. Weekend warriors will want to take note of the warm and
breezy conditions Friday, as this will be a precursor for Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

On Friday night a system passes over the northern Plains causing a
cold front to enter our area from northwest. This system will advect
moisture our way, but a midlevel cap looks to prevent convection. On
Saturday a weak shortwave makes landfall in southern California,
which causes the previous front to switch gears and lift northward.
Midlevel warm advection ahead of the wave should improve the lapse
rates and with moisture in place there is a chance for afternoon
convection. The lifting warm front could act as a focus for lift so
showers and storms may develop along that as well as the high
terrain. On Sunday a broad trough remains anchored over the western
CONUS keeping us is in southwest flow. The moisture from previous
days will concentrate across the northern third of the area, which
is where showers and storms are possible in the afternoon. The
pressure gradient increases on Sunday as well so afternoon wind
gusts could approach 45 mph for some locations. Warm advection
causes highs to top out at 5-10 degrees above normal.

On Monday the western trough comprised of several troughs becomes
elongated and pushes eastward through our region later in the day.
Strong southwest flow ahead of the system is expected once again and
convection returns to the northern half of the area. Those precip
chances could expand over the rest of the area since a weak cold
front is expected to move through. Conditions dry out Monday night
as the trough axis swings east of the Divide. Quasi-zonal flow aloft
develops in the wake of the trough. This should keep the weather
fairly quiet into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions under mainly clear skies can be expected the next
24 hours...with a few afternoon gusts over 25 mph possible
tomorrow.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT