901
FXUS62 KFFC 160553
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
153 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024


...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The main focus for this AFD is the showers ongoing over the area
with isolated thunderstorms. Overall, expecting very summerlike pop
up showers when it comes to this afternoon and evening, with no real
severe threat. After the upper level low centered over Tennessee
causing these showers moves to the east, your forecast should remain
dry until Friday. Gusty winds will be the main concern with gusts up
to 25mph this afternoon into the evening.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The first 2 days of the extended period will likely be the majority
of the sensible weather for the extended period. The period begins
with a mid level disturbance located over the Mid MS valley early
Friday within the modest mid level flow of the jet extending back
over TX and Mexico. The tail end of the CAMS including the WRF FV3,
ARW, NAM3km and HRRR in fairly good agreement that a remnant or
decaying MCS could be approaching the region by early Friday..which
is entirely possible given upper support and surface based
instability available to the west of the region during the day on
Thu. If that`s the case, early Friday may be more of a rain shield
with embedded thunderstorms type of start to the day...which in turn
could limit the amount of destabilization that occurs during the day
Friday. The NAM3km tries to surge north much higher CAPE values
behind the departing MCS but fails to reach the southern CWA by the
end of the run Friday eve. Similar to the thinking in the previous
AFD, there is likely going to be a significant increase in
instability toward the gulf coast which may act serve as a deterrent
to convection further north and help keep the main axis of any MCS
development further to the south. All of that being said, there is
still a higher likelihood of widespread showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms north of any MCS which tracks to the south...hence NBM
guidance is ranging 60-80 pops late Friday through Saturday.

Saturday`s forecast remains a bit more uncertain given the
uncertainty in how Friday plays out, however, given the proximity of
the upper support over TN, modest mid and upper level jet energy,
sufficient deep and low level shear, there is a risk for severe
storms early through mid day Saturday....under the assumption that an
MCS to the south or early in the day doesn`t disrupt surface heating
processes. GFS soundings for W. GA midday Saturday certainly support
a severe risk, but given the many uncertainties in how things evolve
leading into Saturday, SPC correctly went the conservative route
with no outlined risk for Saturday. The CSU MLP severe risk outlined
for Day 4(Saturday) is in line with what the potential could be IF
other factors don`t come into play, which is possibly a 15% including
some Tor and wind risk. Stay tuned for updates.

Beyond Saturday...the main upper system from Friday/Saturday shifts
east and basically becomes stationary well offshore of the SE
coastline, but close enough to keep the region within a mid level NW
flow and pleasant weather through the remainder of the extended
period.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Patchy IFR/MVFR contains will occur over the higher terrain of
northern Georgia through 15Z today. VFR conditions (FEW-SCT AOA
4000 FT AGL and unrestricted visibility) will prevail between 15Z
today and 12Z Friday. Northwest winds (290-340 degrees) will
continue through 00Z Friday, then light and variable winds should
occur.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence in all elements of the ATL TAF is high.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  80  65  80 /  10  50  80  70
Atlanta         65  80  67  80 /  10  60  80  70
Blairsville     57  74  61  74 /  20  70  90  80
Cartersville    62  79  64  80 /  20  60  80  70
Columbus        67  84  69  80 /  20  60  70  70
Gainesville     62  77  66  79 /  10  60  80  80
Macon           65  84  68  81 /  10  40  60  80
Rome            62  80  64  81 /  20  70  80  70
Peachtree City  63  80  66  80 /  20  60  80  70
Vidalia         68  87  71  84 /   0  30  60  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Albright