478
FXUS62 KFFC 060740
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
340 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The mid levels continue to remain active across the CWA during the
short term period of the forecast. High pressure remains in control
of the sensible weather at the surface.

500mb analysis shows a shortwave moving through the CWA early this
morning. The system has provided just enough lift for showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning. A secondary shortwave is noted
over northern MS, in the base of a trough. This second shortwave may
skirt the CWA just to the north, but maybe provide just enough lift
for sct shra/tsra this afternoon and evening. With the system
passing further north, the highest pops should be across far N GA
this afternoon/evening. Shortwave ridging should build in for
Tuesday, but isold/sct afternoon/evening storms are expected again.

With the early morning activity, convection may end up getting
somewhat of a later start this afternoon and evening over the
southern two thirds of the CWA. A few strong storms will be
possible, producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Transient shortwave ridging will begin to transition back to west
southwest flow aloft on Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday will
likely reach the warmest levels of the week with afternoon ranging
from the mid-to-upper 80s in north Georgia to lower 90s in Middle
Georgia. With a quasi-stationary surface front situated across the
Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, PoPs Wednesday will be highest
across north Georgia with lower chances farther south.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop in response to a
shortwave moving along the aforementioned frontal zone Wednesday
afternoon. This activity will shift southeastward through Thursday
morning, likely in the form of a gradually decaying convective
complex. As such, PoPs will begin to increase across north
Georgia by Thursday morning, and the potential for any strong to
severe thunderstorms with an attendant damaging wind threat will
need to be monitored as it pushes into our area.

The surface cold front will get a kick into the state through the
day Thursday as the upper trough swings through the Great Lakes
region. Depending on how morning activity pans out and the degree to
which afternoon instability recovers ahead of the front, additional
thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon and evening could pose
a further severe threat. With PWATs in advance of the front
potentially nearing 2", locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

By Thursday night into Friday, the bulk of PoPs should be relegated
into Middle Georgia as the front continues to push southward. A
cooler and drier airmass will gradually filter from north to south
in the wake of the front, setting up a much cooler and less active
weekend forecast. Below normal temperatures are likely to persist
into early next week.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Patchy light ra/shra will continue until around 08-09Z. Patchy
MVFR cigs are possible, but not confident enough to go prevailing,
will keep tempo. Wind may stay light and on the west side for much
for the next couple of hours, but should go light/variable towards
08-10Z. Sct afternoon convection possible again this afternoon, do
think a later start is likely due to the overnight ra/isold tsra.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  64  87  67 /  40  40  30  20
Atlanta         84  67  86  68 /  30  30  30  30
Blairsville     76  61  80  63 /  60  40  40  40
Cartersville    84  64  86  66 /  40  30  40  40
Columbus        88  67  90  69 /  20  20  20   0
Gainesville     80  65  85  68 /  50  40  30  30
Macon           87  65  89  68 /  30  30  20   0
Rome            84  65  85  66 /  40  30  40  40
Peachtree City  86  65  87  68 /  30  30  30  20
Vidalia         88  68  91  70 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa