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871
FXUS62 KCHS 160218
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1018 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through late today, followed by high
pressure into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this
weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A short wave trough will pull east through the area, with
considerable dry air and NVA to follow in its wake. By daybreak
heights aloft will begin to rise as ridging approaches from the
west. Showers are just about done with given a Normalized CAPE
less than 0.1, poor lapse rates, and limited CAPE. We still
have slight chance PoPs in some places through 12-1 am, but
that`s it. The air mass behind the front does have a little
cooler air with it, as we look for lows down in the lower and
middle 60s inland, upper 60s near the coast. Closer to sunrise
some low stratus could form to the north and advect toward I-26
after dawn.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A relatively progressive pattern will exist during the short
term period. A shortwave ridge will move through on Thursday,
yielding warm temps and dry weather. Highs expected to be in the
mid to upper 80s.

A deepening southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture
on Friday. A shortwave trough will lift northeast through the
area late Friday, potentially bringing a few showers or tstms in
from the west Friday afternoon.

A longwave upper trough will shift into the eastern United
States Friday night and Saturday. A tropical airmass will
overspread the area with PWATs approaching 2". A weak warm front
will lift north through the area Friday night, then a potent
shortwave will move through on Saturday. Fairly widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected during this period with
many areas potentially receiving more than 1" of precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper trough axis will swing through on Sunday, potentially
producing a few showers or tstms. Then, dry and warm weather
expected as an upper ridge gradually builds from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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KCHS/KJZI: Nearby -SHRA will end by 04Z, and that`s the last of
any rainfall with the latest TAFs. There might be some low
stratus for a few hours between 10Z and 14Z Thursday. But the
probabilities are too low, so prevailing VFR through 00Z Friday.

KSAV: Maybe a brief -SHRA nearby early tonight, otherwise VFR
will prevail.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could
bring flight restrictions to all terminals Saturday and Saturday
night as a low pressure system impacts the region.

.MARINE...
Tonight: A cold front will continue to push into and through the
waters, resulting in winds that are W or WNW as high as 15 or 20
kt. With the offshore trajectories the initially elevated seas
will slowly start to come down, and are mainly 3 or 4 feet. The
risk for any strong t-storms has ended for the night.

Thursday through Monday: Conditions through the period are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High
pressure will build in at the surface on Thursday, then a cold
front pushes through on Saturday. High pressure returns early
next week.
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&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...