Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS National HQ
Issued by NWS National HQ
294 NOUS41 KWBC 311530 PNSWSH Public Information Statement 25-53 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD 1130 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 To: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPort Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees From: Geoff Manikin Chief, Statistical Modeling Division NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration Meteorological Development Laboratory Subject: Soliciting comments on the proposed thinning of percentile data for the next implementation of the National Blend of Models (NBM) through October 6, 2025 Through October 6, 2025, the National Weather Service (NWS) is soliciting comments on the proposed thinning of percentile data for the next implementation of the National Blend of Models (NBM), planned for Spring 2026. The NBM currently provides all percentiles (1-99) for its Maximum/Minimum Temperature, Wind, and Quantitative Precipitation, while Snow and Ice percentile products are limited to the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles. Additional percentile data will be computed for multiple new and existing parameters in Version 5.0. This means that the footprint of NBM probabilistic products will grow substantially in the next version, and the continued generation and dissemination of full (1-99) percentile distributions is untenable. For this reason, it is proposed to limit the number of NBM percentiles disseminated for each relevant parameter, reducing the data to more than every fifth percentile, 5th through 95th. Users will also be provided the maximum and minimum values of each probabilistic products cumulative distribution function (CDF) to assist with Impact- based Decision Support Services (IDSS). The minimum and maximum values will be labeled as the 0th and 100th percentiles, respectively. This proposed change applies to the distribution of NBM percentile data on all platforms. If you have comments regarding these changes, please contact: Geoff Manikin Chief, Statistical Modeling Division MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland geoffrey.manikin@noaa.gov or David Rudack National Blend of Models Team Lead MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland david.rudack@noaa.gov National Public Information Statements are online at: https://www.weather.gov/notification/