396
FXUS65 KVEF 060342
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
845 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
  expected mainly over the higher terrain and northern Owens
  Valley today/tonight.

* Strong upper ridging will build into the Western U.S. from late
  this week into early next. This will result in a rapid increase
  in temperatures, especially this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A compact upper low continues to shift eastward across Southern
Nevada and California. This feature has brought breezy conditions,
cooler temperatures, and some shower and thunderstorm activity
mainly over the higher terrain and parts of central Nevada. Recent
hi-res ensembles suggest we may be in for one more day of showers
and isolated storms, although coverage appears to be more paltry
than it has over the last couple of days. Trends would suggest a
mid to late afternoon initiation with activity gradually shifting
to the west/southwest. Any stronger activity may produce gusty
winds, small hail and lightning. Otherwise, activity is expected
to largely diminish by mid-evening with a return to drier
conditions by tomorrow as the system shifts to the east.

The next weather feature of note will be a large upper ridge
expected to develop across much of the Western CONUS. This will
result in rising temperatures each day Wednesday through Friday. A
weak upper wave will flatten the ridge a bit Friday into Saturday
mainly over the Pacific Northwest. However, large scale ensembles
show this feature rebuilding Sunday into the first half of next
week. This will bring large scale subsidence and building heat to
the Desert Southwest with temperatures some 10-20 degrees above
normal for mid-May. In fact, many areas may see their first
triple- digit temperatures this year as we enter the workweek.
Moderate to Major Heat Risk also looks to increase in coverage,
especially across Death Valley and the Colorado River Valley. As
confidence increases we may need Extreme Heat Watches and/or
Warnings.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Generally light South to southwest winds are expected
overnight before becoming variable toward sunrise. Light winds are
anticipated for most of the day Wednesday, with winds favoring
easterly directions during the afternoon and early evening. Skies
will be mostly clear.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty west winds are
expected around KDAG through midnight with gusts to 25 knots. Winds
will gradually ease through Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, northerly
winds will remain favored near KDAG with afternoon gusts over 20
knots. Elsewhere, generally light winds are favored through
Wednesday evening with mostly clear skies.
. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Austin
AVIATION...CO

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