405
FXUS63 KUNR 070651
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1251 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mild and dry the rest of the week with temps above normal by
 Wednesday

-Breezy at times in the period

-A cold front will bring chances for rain this weekend with much
 cooler weather to start next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Upper low will park in the Pac NW most of this week and support
downstream ridging over the central CONUS. This will allow for a
warming trend and dry weather the rest of the week as southwest
flow persists aloft, supporting mild weather and above normal
temps. Expect highs in the 60s today, with 70s and a few 80s
common the rest of the week on the Plains. Southerly LLJ will
develop Wed as a lee-side trough deepens, supporting breezy
weather across the region, with adv level winds possible across
scentral SD. An upper trough will to top the ridge and support a
weak backdoor cool front into the area Thurs. This will support a
slightly cooler day Friday, but temps will still be above normal.
Pac NW upper trough will begin to shift east by this weekend,
phasing with a deeper northern stream trough. This will allow for
local shortwave ridging Sat, supporting the warmest day in the
period as temps will climb into the 80s most places. Would not be
surprised to see a couple 90s across south central SD given mean
ll thermal progs and expected mixing. It will also be breezy per
south winds ahead of the expected cold front. Cold front will move
into the area later Sat, with increasing chances for showers Sat
night into Sunday. Cooler and unsettled weather looks likely to
start next week, with mean upper level troughing progged over the
western and central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1123 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for SDZ001-002-030-
     031-041-042-075-076-078.
WY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for WYZ054>056-
     058>060.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13