953
FXUS63 KUNR 092333
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
533 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to track
  through the far southwestern corner of the area today. Severe
  weather is not expected at this time but stronger storm cells
  could produce gusty winds and small hail.

- A chilly, below-normal night is in store for some tonight. NE WY
  and NW SD will see overnight lows near the mid-30s. Elsewhere
  will see lows near 40 or warmer.

- The warming trend begins tomorrow. A much warmer with near-
  critical to critical fire weather pattern returns next week.

- The elevated fire weather conditions will be due to hot
  temperatures nearing 90 degrees, low humidities, and breezy
  conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Next Saturday)
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

The forecast for western SD and NE WY could be broken up into 3
parts: the continuing showers and isolated thunderstorms late
this afternoon through this evening, below-normal overnight temps
tonight into tomorrow morning, and the very warm weather next
week.

Currently, showers and thunderstorms are tracking southeast
through NE WY and SW SD. These showers will continue on this track
through the rest of today and are expected to fade out later this
evening. While no severe weather is expected, the stronger cells
could produce gusty winds and small hail.

Saturday night into Sunday morning could be on the chilly side for
folks in NE WY, the Black Hills, and far northwestern SD.
Overnight lows look to dip into the low to mid 30s. The rest of
the SD plains look to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Looking to next week, upper ridge slides over the Rockies and
into the northern and central plains. This will give much warmer
temperatures and dry conditions Monday through the rest of the
next week. Main forecast concern in this time frame will be
increased fire weather conditions given the hot temperatures, dry
air, and breezy winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 531 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. The minor
exception will be across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and far
southwestern SD, where isolated rain showers could produce brief
MVFR conditions through 02Z this evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM MDT Sunday for SDZ001-002-014-
     078.
WY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM MDT Sunday for WYZ054>056-
     058>060.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...GS
AVIATION...15