439
FXUS65 KTWC 060839
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
139 AM MST Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot weather for Southeast Arizona through
next week. Near normal temperatures today, warming to around 5
degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. Tucson will flirt with
105 degrees both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southeast Arizona will experience a quiet, yet hot
weather pattern over the next week. The upper pattern this morning
is defined by two strong ridges of high pressure over SRN TX/NE
Mexico and the Gulf of AK, with a weak trough in between these two
features in the Great Basin into California. Look for the upper
high over SRN TX this morning to slowly broaden and shift west
through the weekend, eventually finding residence off the coast
of the northern Baja by the first half of next week. As this
occurs, expect 850-700 mb thickness values to increase to near
1675-1680m across Southeast Arizona late this weekend, which
according to our local weather study would represent an afternoon
high temperatures for the Tucson International Airport (KTUS)
near 104 degrees. This matches up well with the unmodified 06/05Z
NBM values of 104 degrees on both Sunday and Monday.

Although the upper high strengthens the first half of next week
off the coast of the northern Baja, we may see a degree or two of
cooling as weak troughing slides down along the easterly periphery
of the upper ridge into Southeast Arizona. Granted, this cooling
may not be noticeable as temperatures will still remain hot across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z. SKC thru the period. SFC winds variable
at 10 kts or less thru 06/18Z, then westerly-southwesterly 8-12 kts
with gusts 20 kts thru 07/03Z. Occasional afternoon gusts to 25 kts
will be possible due to strong surface heating. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less into next
week with occasional afternoon gusts around 20-25 mph. Expect a
drying and warming trend through the weekend into next week. Min
RH values will be in the single digits into next week with the
exception of a few mountain peaks that will be around 10 percent.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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