229
FXUS65 KTWC 252026
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
126 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft building in from the west will
result in dry conditions through at least Wednesday. Below normal
high temperatures will continue through Monday, warming to above
normal levels the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Below normal temperatures will continue through Monday
behind an existing storm system which brought valley rain and
mountain snow to southeast Arizona. High temperatures will be around
10 degrees below normal today and 4-6 degrees below normal Monday.
For tonight/early Monday morning, patchy fog is a possibility mainly
in the valleys of Cochise County, but confidence is too low to be
included in the gridded forecast (as was mentioned in the previous
forecast discussion). Breezy easterly winds of 10-20 mph and gusts
to around 30 mph are expected Monday in those locations prone to
easterly winds.

Dry conditions continue through at least Wednesday as shortwave
ridging moves across the desert southwest. High temperatures warm to
around normal Tuesday and then to 2-3 degrees above normal on
Wednesday. Weak troughing occurs across the area Thursday/Friday,
with the model solutions indicating only a very slight chance of
precipitation (<10 percent) across far eastern areas. Most likely
just virga and/or some sprinkles. Ridging then returns across the
desert southwest next weekend into early the following week, with
highs climbing back to 3-5 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 6k-9k ft AGL thru 26/03Z, then increasing high
level cirrus clouds through the remainder of the forecast period.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL aft 26/06Z. SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 7-12
kts thru 26/03Z and then variable wind at 10 kts or less between
26/03Z and 26/16Z. Increasing ELY/SELY SFC wind aft 26/16Z, with
wind speeds of 10-18 kts and gusts to 20-28 kts aft 26/18Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure aloft will build in from the west
resulting in dry conditions through at least Wednesday. There will
be a very slight chance of light rainfall Thursday and Friday across
eastern areas, with dry conditions returning next weekend. Below
normal high temperatures will continue through Monday, warming to
around normal Tuesday and then 2-3 degrees above normal Wednesday
into next weekend. Breezy easterly winds of 10-20 mph and gusts to
around 30 mph are expected Monday. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
generally be less than 15 mph and terrain driven Tuesday through
Saturday. Minimum RH levels will lower into the 18-28 percent range
by Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Zell

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