Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
816 FXUS65 KTWC 052054 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 154 PM MST Tue May 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and potentially a thunderstorm this afternoon in eastern Pinal, Graham, and Greenlee counties. Cooler and breezy today as a storm system crosses the region. High temperatures will rise back above normal through the second half of the week. Well above normal temperatures are likely by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Southeast Arizona is under partly cloudy skies with cool temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s this afternoon. Currently there are isolated showers and thunderstorms in areas north and east of Tucson including portions of Pinal, Graham, and Greenlee counties. There is just enough instability, lift and moisture in place for showers/thunderstorms to continue as a low pressure system continues to move across the region this afternoon and early evening. With this system passing through, there has been gusty southwest winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph for much of the region, with locally higher winds at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in Santa Cruz and Cochise counties this afternoon and evening. The low pressure is beginning to separate slightly from the main upper level flow, keeping the area under general low pressure through tomorrow. This will keep just enough moisture and instability will be around tomorrow afternoon in the White Mountains, bringing slight chances (10-15%) for showers/thunderstorms. This will also keep high temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s in the valleys tomorrow afternoon. Once this passes through tomorrow, high pressure begins to build over the great basin into next week, keeping the area warm and dry. Temperatures will quickly increase into the upper 70s to mid 80s in the eastern valleys and mid 80s to low 90s in the western deserts Thursday, then mid 80s to low 90s in the eastern valleys and low 90s to upper 90s Friday. Temperatures look to peak early next week with the NBM giving a 60% and 75% chance for Tucson to reach 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z. FEW-SCT 5k-8k foot cumulus clouds areawide thru 06/15Z. Isolated to scattered showers and potentially a thunderstorm possible north and east of KTUS through KSAD thru 06/01Z. SFC winds SW-ly/W-ly at 15-20 kts with gusts to 35 kts at KDUG and 12-16 kts with gusts to 30 kts at other terminal. SFC winds diminish to less than 10 kts after 06/02Z. SFC winds NW-ly/W-ly at 10-15 kts with an occasional gust to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Pacific storm system moving through the region will bring isolated to scattered showers with potentially a thunderstorm this afternoon mainly from eastern Pinal through Graham and Greenlee counties. Gusty southwesterly winds at 18-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph through Santa Cruz and southern Cochise county, and 15-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph elsewhere east of central Pima/Pinal through the evening when winds diminish. Cooler temperatures and increased moisture will keep minimum relative humidity above 25 percent today and above 40 percent in the Catalinas, Pinalenos, and White Mountains. A drying and warming trend is expected through the second half of the week with generally light winds Wednesday onwards. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JT Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson