813
FLUS44 KTSA 311737
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West-Central Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West-Central Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Along and South of Interstate 40.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Afternoon heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees are forecast
along south of I-40 by early this afternoon. Heat index values
may locally climb above 110 degrees across portions of southeast
Oklahoma this afternoon before increases in cloud cover and
storms provide some relief by late afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along an advancing
cold front this afternoon from northwest and west-central Arkansas
to southeast Oklahoma. The atmosphere is expected to become very
unstable this afternoon from east-central Oklahoma over into
west-central Arkansas along or just ahead of the front. Storms
that develop here will have a limited risk of becoming severe,
with locally damaging winds the primary threat. Locally heavy
rainfall in excess of 1 inch is also possible.

Additional storms are expected to develop overnight from east-
central Oklahoma over into west-central Arkansas. These storms are
not expected to be severe but could drop locally heavy rainfall.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from east-
central Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas with a continued
locally heavy rain threat. Storm chances will shift down into
southeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon and evening. Low storm chances
will persist over southeast Oklahoma on Saturday. Another round of
higher storm chances is expected Sunday into Monday as an upper
wave drops southeast across the region on the eastern side of an
upper ridge to the west. Organized severe weather is not expected,
but pockets of locally heavy rainfall are possible.

A ridge of high pressure aloft is expected to build back over the
region by the middle of next week. Expect a return of hot and
humid weather and heat headlines by Wednesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$