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FLUS44 KTSA 171003
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-181015-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
503 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Mid Afternoon.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing Eastern Oklahoma...Late Morning West Central
Arkansas.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
ONSET...Midday.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast
Oklahoma are forecast to weaken through the morning hours.
Additional low storm chances continue this afternoon and evening,
mainly along and south of Interstate 40 along and near the slowly
sagging southward frontal boundary. Increasing instability
interacting with max heating will create a limited severe
potential during the afternoon and evening hours with locally
strong downburst winds the main threat. The limited severe
potentials are higher over southeast Oklahoma, and should begin to
weaken late evening.

In addition to the storm potentials, dangerous heat and heat
stress are expected to continue for southeast Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas with heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees.
North of the boundary, across northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas, afternoon heat index values in the upper 90s
to 104 degrees are forecast.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat
 Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The break in the heat north of Interstate 40 will be short-lived
with very hot conditions returning areawide Tuesday and
especially Wednesday as the boundary retreats back northward.

Low thunderstorm chances return during the second half of the week
with another frontal boundary forecast to move into the region.
The greater potential for storms is Wednesday night and Thursday
for parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Even with
the rain chances this week, hot and humid conditions remain
forecast and heat stress will remain a near daily weather impact
into next weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$