213
FXUS64 KTSA 221739
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

 - A potent arctic front will bring life threatening cold to the area
   beginning Friday night, continuing into early next week.

 - A high impact winter storm is expected Friday through Sunday, bringing
   climatologically extreme snow and sleet totals to the entire
   forecast area.

 - Travel is expected to become very difficult to nearly impossible
   at times.

 - Temperatures will be slow to moderate next week, so societal impacts
   will linger for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Mild conditions are expected today with high temperatures in the
50s. Cloud cover will increase and lower throughout the day in
advance of the next storm system. The leading edge of the arctic
airmass will move through this evening, with northerly flow
beginning in northeast OK. North winds will then gradually spread
south and strengthen during the overnight hours. Cold air will
initially be sluggish in its southward push, with subfreezing air
roughly making it to a line from Henryetta up through Fayetteville
by daybreak. Temperatures will range from the mid 20s near the KS
border to low 40s near the TX border at daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Cold air will increasing push into the area Friday, especially near
and north of Highway 412, with gusts of 25-35 mph. Further south, it
is unclear what kind of progress the cold air will make during the
day. The AIFS and NAM models are typically more reliable with cold
air, and they suggest temperatures remaining just above freezing to
the south of I-40 until the afternoon hours, with temperatures then
going below freezing areawide. We are within the window of CAM
guidance at this point. Much of which shows some light rain showers
in southeast OK from roughly noon to 3 PM. Any storm preparations or
travel should be completed by midday Friday across the area. For the
later afternoon hours, precipitation will increase across southeast
OK, with rain transitioning to either freezing rain or sleet,
depending on the exact cold air progression. Any wet roads will
freeze during this period. Precipitation will spread north to the
remainder of the forecast area during the evening hours.
Precipitation type will be mostly snow north of I-40, with mostly
sleet to the south. There will be variation in this generalization
in both time and location. Some freezing rain near the Red River may
occur, but is generally expected to remain below 0.2 inches. But
again, this depends on how quickly the cold air surges south.

Moderate to heavy precipitation will then continue overnight into
Saturday morning as moist isentropic upglide intersects lift from an
upper level jet. Exact totals remain uncertain given questions of
how far north sleet occurs, exact heavier precipitation axis, and so
on. But total snow will be multiple inches for most areas in the
north, with an inch or two of sleet in the south. There is
uncertainty during the day Saturday, but the majority of guidance
leans towards either a break or at least weaker precipitation rates
for a time. Given gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph, some blowing
and drifting of snow is likely. Temperatures will hover near 8-15 F
in the north during the daytime, and 15-25 F in the south.

The main trough axis will then swing through later Saturday into
Sunday, reinvigorating precipitation rates. With cooling upper
levels this will cause snow ratios to increase in the north, and
nudge the precipitation type towards snow with time in southern
areas. There is still a decent subset of guidance that keeps this
second surge weaker and further south, which would limit totals. The
majority of guidance, however, shows this second band as robust with
low density snow, meaning it will accumulate efficiently. Snow may
linger as long as early Sunday afternoon before totally shutting
off.

These factors together point to a widespread storm total of 6-12
inches of snow north of I-40. If some of the higher end guidance
were to develop (less likely) it is possible local accumulations
could be as high as 18-20 inches somewhere. Conversely, the low end
scenario (also less likely) would be 6-8 inches in the north.
Blowing and drifting of snow will make travel very difficult if not
outright impossible for a time. South of I-40, sleet accumulations
will be prolific, potentially up to 3-4 inches in spots. These types
of totals will cripple many area roads. Typically sleet takes a long
time to melt so impacts will linger for multiple days. A couple of
inches of snow may fall on top of the sleet near the end of the
storm. Additionally, some icing near the Red River could result in
localized power outages. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect to
cover these expected storm totals.

Very low wind chills will develop Friday evening in the north,
spreading to all areas Saturday. Wind chills will fall below zero
for at least a time in most locations. Actual high temperatures
Saturday and Sunday will mainly be in the teens. Lows are expected
to be well below zero Monday morning for many areas. The Extreme
Cold Watch was upgraded to a Warning to account for this danger.

Temperatures will slowly moderate into the middle of next week, with
highs climbing into the 30s but lows remaining below 20 each night.
This will refreeze and compact existing snow and sleet, keeping road
conditions treacherous into at least late week. There is a bit of a
signal in the ensemble guidance for a weak system near next Friday,
but no additional precipitation should occur after Sunday until at
least then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of
this forecast period. Low clouds will begin to stream north and
westward overnight and may pass or impact KMLC with lower chances
further north and east. Cold front moves into NE OK after midnight
and makes slow but steady progress southward with winds becoming
gusty from the N after the passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  26  28   8 /   0   0  20 100
FSM   54  33  39  17 /   0   0  20 100
MLC   56  35  39  14 /   0   0  50 100
BVO   52  21  24   4 /   0   0  20  90
FYV   53  26  32   9 /   0   0  20 100
BYV   49  25  27   8 /   0   0  10  90
MKO   54  32  33  12 /   0   0  30 100
MIO   52  22  23   5 /   0   0  10  90
F10   56  32  32   9 /   0   0  40 100
HHW   54  40  42  19 /   0  10  70 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
     OKZ049-053>076.

     Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
     Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 3 PM CST Sunday for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

     Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST
     Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07