Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
217 FXUS64 KTSA 311736 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Dangerous heat and humidity along and south of Interstate 40 this afternoon with heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees. Heat indices may locally climb above 110 degrees for portions of southeast Oklahoma. - Cold front continues to push through the region with 20-50% shower and thunderstorm chances today/ tonight and 20-60% storm chances Friday. - Additional shower and storm chances Sunday into Monday as one or more shortwaves affect the area. - Warming trend with temperatures near/above average by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Today likely marks the last day of heat headlines for awhile as a cold front makes steady progress into the region. This will result in high temperatures struggling to climb out of the 80s across northernmost parts of the FA, becoming warmer with southern extent. Locations along and south of I-40 will likely not escape the heat quite yet, though, as highs remain in the mid-upper 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. Resultant heat indices are forecast to climb between 105 to 109 degrees and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM this evening. Dewpoints have been higher across portions of southeast Oklahoma late this morning, and heat indices here may locally climb above 110 degrees. An upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning may become necessary if dewpoints do not mix out as much as expected and widespread 110s become likely this afternoon. As remnant outflow boundaries and parent cold front move south today, expect redevelopment of convection this afternoon, especially for southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This should help to limited heat intensity and duration across this area. Lower precip chances also exist north of the sfc boundary...near the lagging 850mb frontal zone. While organized severe weather is not expected, there is at least a limited threat for damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall, mainly across SE OK/ NW AR this afternoon and evening. Going into tonight, the elevated boundary will linger over the area keeping low rain/ storm chances through the overnight period (10-40%). Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 60s (north) and lower 70s (south). && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The elevated front makes slow progress Friday and Friday night, before tending to wash out Saturday. This will keep low PoPs in the forecast through Saturday morning, becoming increasingly confined to SE OK with time. Severe weather is not expected with this activity, though lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary hazards. Rain chances tick up again early Sunday through Monday as one or more waves embedded in the northwest flow aloft influence the region. Will need to keep an eye on MCS and associated severe potential during this time. With the higher cloud cover and rainfall potential, temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow through early next week... running close to 10 degrees below average. By mid to late next week the ridge is projected to shift east again, likely reducing rain potential and increasing temps/ HIs again. Another round of heat headlines may eventually be needed later next week under this scenario. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Mostly VFR conditions Are being experienced across the area currently as cigs have lifted over the last hour. Additional TSRA chances will increase again this afternoon both across SE OK into NW AR and across NE OK sites along two boundaries draped across the region. A lull in activity is expected after sunset with more storm chances late tonight into tomorrow morning first across NE OK sites drifting southward throughout the morning hours. MVFR cigs could also filter back into the region late tonight into tomorrow morning behind the frontal boundary, with best chances across NW AR sites. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 86 70 86 / 30 20 10 10 FSM 74 87 71 89 / 50 50 10 10 MLC 72 87 70 88 / 50 70 20 20 BVO 68 85 62 86 / 20 10 0 0 FYV 68 84 63 85 / 50 30 10 0 BYV 67 84 62 84 / 30 20 0 0 MKO 71 86 69 87 / 50 50 10 10 MIO 68 85 61 86 / 20 10 0 0 F10 71 85 68 86 / 40 50 10 10 HHW 73 87 71 86 / 30 50 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-072>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...04