912
FXUS64 KTSA 291654
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

 - Cooler and lower impact weather to close out this week.

 - A storm system is forecast to track east across Texas during
   the latter part of the week, increasing rain chances mainly
   south of I-40 Thursday into Friday.

 - Thunderstorm chances will return toward the middle of next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The much anticipated cold front has finally cleared all of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas, bringing cooler and decidedly,
lower impact weather to the region. Thunderstorms have developed
just south of the Red River late this morning, in response to a
weak disturbance moving through the area. A low chance of this
potential extending northward into far southeast Oklahoma exists
through the afternoon and into early evening, but any strong to
severe storms are likely to remain south of the area. Cloud cover
will hang on across southeast Oklahoma into the overnight, while
some clearing is expected across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. This will lead to a decent gradient in low temperatures
with lower 40s to the north and mid 50s to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A period of dry weather areawide will extend past daybreak
Thursday, lasting into at least midday, before shower chances
increase again across southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon in
response to the arrival of an upper level jet max in Central
Texas. Lightning potential will likely stay south of the area. The
POPs during this time frame have been adjusted upward some using
the short-term blended guidance from the lower NBM guidance. A
more substantial storm system remains on track to move through
Texas late Thursday and into Friday, with another round of showers
for mainly areas along and south of I-40. Once again, the
lightning potential will be low north of the Red River with this
round. Given the rainfall during the day Friday, temperatures will
remain quite chilly through the day across southeast Oklahoma,
only in the lower 60s at best.

Drier north-northwesterly flow develops across the region by the
weekend, pushing any impetus for rain south and east of the area
and leading to generally mostly clear skies. South to southwest
winds look to make a return Sunday, which will spur a warmup with
near to above normal temperatures that extends into next week.

Another storm system looks to organize in the southwestern United
States during early next week and move eastward through the area for
the middle part of the week. This will lead to an increase in the
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Although it is way too
early to talk specifics, the overall pattern would support some
severe weather potential during this time frame. After all, it`s
gonna be May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours, with BKN-OVC high level clouds through the period. Winds
stay light to moderate, with occasional gusts around 20 knots, out
of north or northeast into this evening and overnight before
veering more easterly by mid to late morning Thursday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  68  48  67 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   50  70  51  69 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   50  70  50  66 /  10  20  20  30
BVO   43  68  43  68 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   45  68  43  66 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   45  66  46  64 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   45  68  48  66 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   43  66  45  65 /   0  10  10  10
F10   46  67  48  65 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   55  68  52  61 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67