251
FXUS64 KTSA 070207
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
907 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 907 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances continue tonight into
    Tuesday, along with cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
    following the passage of a cold front.

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures return late week through the
    weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

As of this writing, the edge of the anticipated cold front is
just now about to move into Osage and Pawnee counties. Radar from
KINX shows a deteriorating line of showers with isolated
lightning falling along the boundary in northwest Osage County and
far western Pawnee County. Consensus in the short-term guidance
has this activity dissipating over the next couple of hours.
Additional showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop later on tonight and through mid-morning
Tuesday behind the frontal boundary as a subtle shortwave trough
moves across the KS/OK border; most precipitation likely falling
north of I-44. Latest CAMs are not too impressed with rainfall
amounts, generally a few hundredths of an inch to a couple of
tenths of an inch by day break Tuesday. A few models show patchy
drizzle developing near the KS/OK border behind the front early-
mid morning Tuesday. Not confident enough to include drizzle in
the forecast at this time, but it is certainly a possibility.

Patchy to areas of fog remains probable developing after midnight
tonight, specifically across far eastern/southeastern OK and
west-central/northwest AR. Any fog that develops will erode/lift
by mid-morning Tuesday as the cold front approaches.

The northeast-to-southwest oriented cold front will advance south
of the I-44 corridor by sunrise. Temperatures are expected to
steadily fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s behind the front, with
temperatures generally in the mid-upper 60s ahead of the front by
daybreak.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

As of early this afternoon, a weak frontal boundary was positioned
from the Texas Panhandle through northwest Oklahoma and eastern
Kansas up northeast into the Great Lakes region. Along this
boundary scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing within
an area of warm advection and deeper mid level moisture. At the
same time, an area of low pressure was lifting north/northeast
from southern Arkansas with scattered rain showers on the
northern/eastern side of the disturbance. Between these two
features, increasing cloud cover was observed across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with temps warming above the
seasonal average.

Through this evening, the weak frontal boundary is expected to
slowly sag southeast nearing the CWA, while the area of low
pressure continues its track off to the northeast. Before the
disturbance begins to push away from the region, there remains low
chances for isolated to widely scattered showers/storms to spread
into northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma. Mid to late
evening, the low should be moving into eastern Arkansas, and as
such precip chances for the eastern half of the CWA should taper
off. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Overnight tonight, a shortwave currently over the Rocky Mountains
is progged to move eastward out into the Plains and help push the
weak frontal boundary into the CWA. A slight chance of rain/storms
develops along and near the Oklahoma Kansas border tonight and
remains forecast into Tuesday morning with the boundary moving
southeast through the region. Ahead of the boundary tonight,
increasing low level moisture and light winds will aid in the
potential for fog development across southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Meanwhile, behind the boundary, breezy
northerly winds and widespread cloud cover are expected to spread
across northeast Oklahoma. Low temperatures tonight in the upper
50s to upper 60s from north to south are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The weak boundary moves through the CWA during the day Tuesday
with northerly winds spreading over the region. Will hold onto a
slight chance of showers/storms for parts of northeast Oklahoma
Tuesday morning before the mid level shortwave exits the Plains.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy and cooler conditions are anticipated
across the northern half of the CWA. Across the southern half of
the CWA, a slight chance of rain/isolated storms remains Tuesday
afternoon, though latest indications continue to trend a weaker
signal for afternoon precip across the CWA. High temperatures
Tuesday will be tricky with the cloud cover and the movement of
the boundary. For this forecast highs around 70 deg near the
Kansas border to the mid 80s near the Red River look probable.

The cooler conditions and east/northeast winds are forecast to
continue Wednesday while the region remains in a nearly zonal
mid/upper level flow. However, these conditions look to be short
lived as latest model solutions continue to reestablish the ridge
of high pressure over the Southern Plains Thursday through the
weekend. Model solutions have trended back toward eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas being more underneath the ridge
compared to yesterday where the CWA was on the eastern periphery.
Thus, any shortwave engorge rounding the top of the ridge Friday
now looks to remain to the northeast of the CWA. These conditions
will allow for a warming trend to develop Thursday with above
seasonal average temperatures returning through the weekend. At
this time, forecast high temperatures are mid 80s to near 90 deg
with lows in the 50s/60s. Late weekend, breezy southerly winds
develop ahead of another shortwave looking to move into the
Plains. These winds and the warm temperatures could increase fire
weather dangers for parts of northeast Oklahoma Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR expected to prevail at all TAF sites through at least midnight
tonight. Areas of patchy to dense fog may develop across parts of
northwest AR around or just after midnight tonight. Guidance
suggests MVFR/IFR ceilings, with possible LIFR ceilings associated
with thicker fog, possible at XNA, ROG, and FYV. Forecast
confidence with regards to fog timing, duration, and coverage is
low at this time. Reduced visibilities may need to be added to the
FSM TAFs if a few models are right. A shallow cold front will
push through eastern OK and western AR late tonight into early-mid
morning Tuesday. Models are not too supportive of excessive gusts
behind the front, but decided to maintain occasional to frequent
northerly gusts between 15-20 knots behind the front for a few
hours, especially at the northeast OK terminals. MVFR ceilings
will likely develop behind the passing cold front, but should
break apart late in the afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Rain
should dissipating as the cold front approaches northeast OK.
However, light rain and/or drizzle cannot be ruled out at BVO,
TUL, and RVS along and just behind the frontal boundary;
confidence was too low to include any mention of -RA or -DZ in
the TAFs for TUL and RVS at this time.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  56  77 /  10  20   0   0
FSM   68  83  62  82 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   63  81  59  82 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   57  71  51  75 /  20  20   0   0
FYV   62  79  55  77 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   64  77  56  74 /  20  10  10   0
MKO   64  78  59  80 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   60  72  53  76 /  10  20   0   0
F10   62  78  57  80 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   66  86  64  82 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67