997
FXUS64 KTSA 060652
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
152 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

  - Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall today. Similar
    pattern tonight into Saturday. Focus may shift slightly
    southward Saturday night into Sunday and even more southward
    Saturday night into Sunday.

  - The multiple rounds of rainfall will result in an increased
    flash and main-stem river flooding threat.

  - A cold front will bring a chance for storms early next week,
    with drying conditions expected midweek. Odds favor below
    average temperatures for this time of year through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

MCS continues to organize across N OK with storms strengthening
and likely spreading severe weather into portions of NE OK through
early morning. The warm front currently near Interstate 40 through
east central OK may arc northwestward into the developing complex
as it enters NE OK and offer a potential an uptick in complex
intensity. Otherwise, a slightly more stable airmass does reside
north of the warm front and the advancing complex may trend toward
a more isolated severe threat with eastward extent. Additionally,
potential for preceding convection north of the warm front may
expand in coverage ahead of the main wave and produce a zone of
enhanced heavier convection which would quickly raise flash flood
potential. This scenario could develop in a short time frame and
impacts could develop quickly. The overall system will be
progressive through the morning with widespread coverage becoming
more scattered by mid afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A similar pattern is likely to develop again tonight into the
morning hours on Saturday. While details often change depending on
the preceding convective influences, the idea of storms developing
by evening and expanding in coverage across the forecast area
tonight is generally well agreed upon at this time. Storms would
again be exiting the forecast area by afternoon on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday may mark a more southward focus for the
heaviest precip and favor the southern half of the forecast area.
Troughing deepens through the central CONUS on Sunday and drives
a stronger front and yet another storm complex southward. Current
indications are that this MCS would again favor areas west and
possibly the southern half of the forecast area. All the above
scenarios would pose a risk of severe weather and potential
flooding.

The active storm period likely wanes for early to mid next week
with seasonably pleasant weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible near the
Oklahoma Kansas border into the early morning hours ahead of a
developing MCS currently over far northwest Oklahoma. This complex
moves into northeast Oklahoma early this morning and spreads east
and southeast across the CWA through the late morning hours.
Within the convection, IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds are
currently anticipated. Behind the storm complex, a period of
IFR/MVFR ceilings are forecast into late morning and early
afternoon hours before lifting back to VFR for the rest of the
TAF period. Additional showers/storms look to develop again just
outside of this TAF period. Winds remain variable into the morning
hours, become west southwesterly for the afternoon hours, and
then go back to variable Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  70  84  66 /  70  80  70  20
FSM   86  72  86  69 /  80  60  70  50
MLC   87  73  87  66 /  80  50  60  50
BVO   82  66  82  63 /  60  80  60  10
FYV   82  69  82  64 /  90  70  80  30
BYV   82  67  81  64 /  90  70  80  30
MKO   84  69  84  65 /  90  60  80  40
MIO   81  67  81  64 /  90  70  70  20
F10   85  68  85  65 /  80  70  70  40
HHW   88  73  89  69 /  50  10  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20