572
FXUS63 KTOP 252305 AAA
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Another round of record setting warmth expected this afternoon &
 tomorrow (Thursday).

-Extreme fire danger conditions develop tomorrow, so a Fire
 Weather Watch has been issued.

-A few locations could (50-60% chance) see a rain shower or
 storm tomorrow evening/night.

-A brief late week cool down will be followed by another big
 warm up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

There is a lot to highlight again in the forecast discussion,
with extreme early spring heat and fire danger conditions being
the main concerns. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
Thursday -- see details in the fire section below.

The large scale pattern over the CONUS features an expansive mid-
level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and western Mexico.
That combined with southerly low level flow is creating another very
warm day for this time of the year. Temperatures will top out near
90 degrees this afternoon and will be even hotter tomorrow, likely
setting record highs both days.

The mid-level ridge will start to flatten tomorrow as a surface
low and associated cold front sweep through the central High
Plains. Temperatures will soar ahead of the front tomorrow. The
25th to 25th percentile from NBM for highs range from 96 to 99
degrees for TOP, with the going forecast closer to the 25th
percentile for now. If TOP exceeds 95 degrees, we will set
another record for hottest temp in the entire month of March,
just days after initially accomplishing that last weekend!

Hot and windy conditions combine to create extreme fire danger
tomorrow, and as already mentioned, a watch has been issued.
Winds will shift from the west-southwest to the north-northeast
throughout the days as the front moves southward. Winds will be
gusty ahead of the front and again behind it. A few showers and
storms may also develop behind the boundary, mainly in east-
central KS during the evening. Severe weather is not expected,
and unfortunately, QPF is low with only around a quarter of an
inch expected where rain occurs.

Much cooler temperatures are expected on Friday with highs only in
the mid to upper 50s, which is actually more seasonably
appropriate. Dew points will drop drastically, which will again
create fire concerns with RH falling into the teens for most
locations. Winds will again be breezy (not uncommon for March),
so fire headlines will be strongly considered. Temperatures
quickly warm through the weekend and into next week as another
mid-level ridge builds over the southern CONUS, and fire danger
concerns will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

The only issue overnight will be the potential for LLWS to
develop after 06z as sfc winds decouple and back while winds
AOA 1kft are expected to be 40kts or higher. Sfc gusts should
develop after 14z with VFR conditions expected through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Updated at 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Rain chances remain sparse and/or QPF remains low where POPs do
exist tomorrow, as windy conditions and very low afternoon RH
values continue for the next several days. Thus, concerns
continue for with regards to fire weather and fire behavior. A
few hours this afternoon will be near RFW criteria, mainly in
north-central and central KS. A Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Thursday for much of the CWA. A cold front will
complicate the fire fighting efforts with gusty west-southwest
winds and hot conditions ahead of it, then a shift to gusty
north winds behind it for the afternoon and evening (the front
will move southward through the area throughout the day).

Winds stay elevated overnight into Friday. Even though
temperatures are cooler for Friday and Saturday, RH recovery
won`t be dramatic during the overnight hours through Sunday,
and daytime RH will drop into the teens to low 20s both Friday
and Saturday, and to around 30 percent on Sunday. Such low RH
tends to exacerbate fire behavior, even as winds diminish.
Afternoon wind gusts Saturday and Sunday are forecast in the
20-25 mph range. Overall conditions over the weekend are far
from ideal for prescribed burning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2026

Record High Temperature for March 25

              Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka          91 (1907)                91
Concordia       92 (1907)                94


Record High Temperature for March 26

              Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka       85 (1910, 1991)             95
Concordia       86 (1907)                87

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Omitt
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...Flanagan