648
FXUS63 KTOP 092006
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
206 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several days of slightly above normal temperatures this week.

- Low chance for rain overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Temperatures recovering nicely today as the clouds and drizzle
associated with the upper low have shifted off to the east and
north, leaving clearing skies and increasing southerly winds in
its wake. Some wrap around clouds holding highs in the 50s in
central Kansas, while eastern areas are close to middle 60s this
afternoon. The upper low makes its way out of eastern Nebraska
to western Iowa by morning, leaving more zonal westerly flow
over the area for Sunday and becoming southwesterly through
Sunday evening. This should bring most areas from upper 50s west
to lower 60s east to finish out the weekend. A back door cool
front approaches the state from the north on Monday, but not
before increasing mixing into warmer temperatures aloft ahead of
the front and bringing middle to upper 60s to the southern two
thirds of the area on Monday with lower 60s in the north.

The next system moves out of the Rockies by late Tuesday,
bringing southerly winds and another day of above normal
temperatures for the area. The surface front associated with
this wave moves across eastern Kansas overnight into Wednesday
morning with some low chances for rain and possibly a rumble of
thunder.

Thursday through Saturday brings another round of flow becoming
zonal behind the departing Wednesday wave, then increasingly
southwesterly as the next longwave trof develops across the baja
into the southwestern states. Slightly above normal temperatures
continue, with a low probability rain chance returning late
Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Primarily a wind forecast for the next 24 hours. Winds are gusty
out of the south today, becoming more southwest with time and
diminishing as the sun sets and inversions form. Some stronger
wind speeds at the top of those inversions, but not enough for
a LLWS group. Some high end MVFR cigs may clip MHK as the upper
system departs late this afternoon into the evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Craven