207
FXUS63 KTOP 112256
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
556 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Anderson County may see storms briefly this afternoon, which could
produce large hail or damaging wind before moving east.

- Relatively cooler and drier Friday before rain becomes likely
Saturday. Flooding is the main concern along with large hail and
damaging winds with any severe storms that may develop.

- Early next week looks much cooler and drier with highs in the 70s
  to start, then warming into mid-week.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Cold front is almost through the forecast area and is along the I-35
corridor as of 19Z. Southeast of the boundary, the sfc obs show
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points in the
low to mid 70s. The atmosphere remains unstable there with 3000+
J/kg of CAPE. Meanwhile behind the boundary, temperatures have
cooled to the low to mid 80s with dew points in the 50s and 60s.
Most of us are clear of any severe weather risk the rest of the day
with the front passing through. Those areas southeast of it (mainly
Anderson County) still can`t be ruled out until the front goes
entirely east of the area. Some radar echoes have developed there
and CAMs have been showing storms there between 20-21z before
quickly moving off to the east. If anything strong enough can get
going before then, large hail would be the main hazard with wind as
a secondary hazard.

High pressure builds in this evening and takes hold for Friday,
giving us a quiet and pleasant day. Highs are forecast in the low to
mid 80s with dew points mostly in the 50s give or take a couple of
degrees.

By late Friday night into early Saturday morning, we have an upper
air pattern consisting of a ridge across the Southern Plains and
Deep South with an expansive trough centered over Ontario, leaving
broad cyclonic flow across the northern CONUS. This places our area
in zonal flow aloft. Isentropic lift looks to strengthen Friday
evening and overnight along with a weak embedded perturbation within
the flow aloft. We should see some showers and storms associated
with this during this time frame, but timing and coverage are a bit
uncertain. An early look at CAM guidance (which goes until 12z
Saturday) shows one cluster through the TX/OK panhandle region and
barely into southern KS. Another area of activity looks to develop
in far eastern KS into MO overnight. However, that appears to be
displaced east of where the better speed convergence from the LLJ
would be. If we were to see more convection in the early morning and
if rain/clouds were to linger longer, that could have an impact on
any severe risk later in the day Saturday.

Speaking of Saturday, the severe risk will depend on what setup
we`re left with after any morning convection. A shortwave from the
Northern Rockies and Plains is progged to push a sfc frontal
boundary southward through the day. The placement of that boundary
will also dictate where the greatest overall risk will be. Some,
though not all, of the 12z guidance is hinting at the front being
about halfway south through the area by the mid to late afternoon.
Still, much of eastern KS still is progged to have enough
instability and shear to support severe storms with large hail and
damaging wind as the main threats. Regarding rainfall, the surge in
moisture Saturday will return Pwat to between 1.5 and 2". The latest
NBM has the eastern half of the area likely to see rain amounts
above 1" (50-80% chance). Areas near and southeast of the Turnpike
have a 50-70% chance of receiving above 2", and even the NBM mean
shows potential for 3" totals in our far southeast. While it`s
uncertain how far south the heaviest rainfall may end up being, the
atmosphere looks primed for efficient rain producers in areas that
are already well saturated from heavy rain recently, so a Flood
Watch will at least need to be considered. We should have better
confidence in whether that is needed in the next couple of forecast
cycles.

The front is favored to push south of the area by Sunday, leaving a
much cooler and drier air mass to start next week. Highs are
forecast in the 70s with dew points in the 40s and 50s. Northwest
flow aloft with increasing heights favors gradually increasing
temperatures through the 80s. A few weak disturbances are currently
progged to stay outside of the area through Tuesday. Wednesday sees
the next notable trough swinging across the Upper Midwest, which may
bring another round of showers and storms, but timing and placement
of that feature are quite uncertain at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A northwest breeze calms overnight before winds return to a southerly
component around mid-morning to midday Friday from west to east. A
dry airmass continues to work into the region with mainly clear skies
through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Drake