520
FXUS63 KTOP 311841
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
141 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry weather through Saturday.

- Rain and storm chances increase Saturday night into Monday,
followed by a warming trend for the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Much cooler air is present over northeast Kansas this afternoon. The
broad trough over the Great Lakes has pushed yesterday`s cold front
well south of the area. Cloud cover behind this front has also
helped to hold temperatures so far around or below 80. A weak
secondary front is located across southern Nebraska, and will bring
drier air over the course of the evening and overnight. A few very
light showers are over far north-central Kansas with this front, but
these should quickly fall apart by early evening as diurnal heating
weakens. Strong high pressure will remain centered over the Upper
Midwest through Sunday morning, keeping cool/dry easterly flow in
place. Exact temperatures will be somewhat dependent on cloud cover
(as usual, clouds will generally lead to cooler daytime but warmer
nighttime temps), but overall expecting highs near 80 and lows near
60 through Sunday.

This weekend as the surface high begins to move off to the east and
several shortwaves move through the northwest flow aloft, rain
chances will gradually increase. As the instability axis and main
shortwave track will stay to our west, the higher PoPs stay across
our western counties. Some rain may occur as early as Saturday
morning towards central KS, but the better chances will occur late
Saturday night and again on Sunday night. Exact timing and location
will be heavily dependent on what convection does well to the west
of our forecast area. After this, there is good consensus on an
upper ridge quickly expanding across the Southern/Central Plains by
mid-week. This should result in a warming/drying trend with highs
returning to the 90s. Will still need to watch for some low-end rain
chances though, with any thunderstorm complexes to our
north/northwest that can move southeast around the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Ceilings have gradually risen over the past few hours to
become predominantly VFR, though some scattered MVFR ceilings will
likely persist into the evening hours. Otherwise, expecting VFR
conditions with 5-10 kt northeast winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese