356
FXUS63 KTOP 310513
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1213 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect through tomorrow evening, except for
  counties along the Nebraska border. High temperatures of
  around 100 degrees with heat indices around 105 are expected.

- Staying mostly dry through the week. A few low chances for
  showers, mainly towards the Nebraska border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Another hot afternoon across the area, with an upper high sitting to
our south over Oklahoma. A few showers are still lingering just
northwest of Republic County, keeping a few clouds around there, but
elsewhere it is just hot and windy. Dewpoints are running a degree
or two yesterday`s values, and temperatures several degrees above.
This should take temperatures around or above 100 with another hour
or two of heating. As most places saw heat index values in the 102
to 105 range yesterday, more confident that most places will see
heat indices around or above 105 today. So have gone ahead and
issued a Heat Advisory for the entire area today and tomorrow, with
the exception of counties along the Nebraska border where cloud
cover may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. Tuesday through
the rest of the week, the upper high moves a bit farther east but
stays the dominant feature across eastern KS. Confidence is high in
continued high temperatures in the upper 90s through Friday, with
heat indices around or above 100 each day. So may an extension of
the Heat Advisory, particularly if dewpoints can creep up a few
degrees by mid-week. As mentioned yesterday, persistent southerly
winds will be a double-edged sword, slightly improving the feel of
the air but also not allowing temperatures to fall as much
overnight. Low temperatures will continue to be in the upper 70s
each day.

Aside from the heat, the only thing to watch over the next week will
be some very low rain chances, mainly over far north-central KS.
Similar to this morning, a weak boundary will stretch from northwest
Kansas into south-central Nebraska tonight. As the nocturnal LLJ
restrengthens, a few more showers and weak thunderstorms should
develop to our west near the boundary. These may move into Republic
County and nearby areas for a few hours tomorrow morning. While the
boundary should move off a bit to the northwest Tuesday and
Wednesday, by Thursday and Friday mornings it may move back close
enough to allow for some more isolated AM convection. Regardless,
expecting any rainfall that does occur through the week to stay very
light, and mainly confined to the Nebraska border.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A weak surface boundary remains north of the terminals and is progged
to lift north Monday morning. So the convection across western KS
should track north of the terminals overnight leaving VFR conditions
in place. Continued mixing of the boundary layer should limit
potential for LLWS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

August 31    Topeka     77, set in 1912 and 1947   79
             Concordia  81, set in 1947            77


September 1  Topeka     81, set in 2011            78
             Concordia  80, set in 1913            77


September 2  Topeka     80, set in 2011            79
             Concordia  79, set in 1929            78


September 3  Topeka     77, set in 1939            78
             Concordia  80, set in 1947            78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese