435
FXUS21 KWNC 291753
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT April 29 2026

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure continues to be favored over the eastern
contiguous U.S. (CONUS), bringing anomalously cold air and gusty winds to much
of the region. There are increased chances for much below normal temperatures
with freezing and near freezing conditions possible in some areas, potentially
damaging early spring blooms. A series of surface lows and trailing fronts may
bring heavy precipitation to parts of the Deep South and eastern Texas at the
beginning of week-2.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Plains,
Midwest, Great Lakes region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians,
Thu-Sun, May 7-10.

Slight risk of high winds for much of the eastern U.S., Thu-Sat, May 7-9.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of eastern Texas, the Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Southeastern U.S., Thu-Sat, May 7-9.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY MAY 02 - WEDNESDAY MAY 06:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR THURSDAY MAY 07 - WEDNESDAY MAY 13: Multiple models continue to indicate
amplified mid-level troughing over the eastern CONUS weakening towards the end
of week-2. The center of the mid-level low is anticipated to start off centered
over Ontario. With this feature being more amplified and expansive compared to
yesterday in the models, the signals for cold are expanded slightly westward
into the north-central CONUS. Therefore slight risk of much below normal
temperatures includes the Northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes region,
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Appalachians, May 7-10, with the expectation of
this hazard slowly shifting eastward with time associated with the trough
moving eastward. In the highlighted risk area both the GEFS and ECMWF
Probabilistic Extreme Tools (PETs) indicate at least a 20% chance of minimum
temperatures falling below the 15th percentile climatologically and
uncalibrated guidance shows temperatures dropping below 38 degrees F (freezing
temperatures across the northern portions). Any residual cold with freezing or
near freezing temperatures may threaten vulnerable springtime vegetation,
particularly in areas that have experienced early growth due to antecedent
warmth during April.



Surface low pressure and a trailing front ahead of the mid-level trough may
support lingering heavy precipitation across southern portions of the East,
with the majority of the heaviest precipitation anticipated to occur at the end
of week-1. A slight risk of heavy precipitation is designated for portions of
eastern Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeastern U.S., May 7-9,
where there is good agreement among the PETs indicating at least a 20% chance
of 3-day rainfall exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch. Thunderstorms are
possible across this region and adjacent areas of where this risk is
highlighted, which could lead to localized flooding. A slight risk of high
winds remains highlighted across much of the eastern CONUS, May 7-9 associated
with these surface lows and fronts. With ongoing drought conditions and above
near to above normal temperatures favored for Florida and southern portions of
Georgia and enhanced winds anticipated, there may be increased wildfire risk
across these areas which already are experiencing active wildfires. Any
precipitation occurring in the region may be brief and localized which may not
offset the enhanced potential for wildfires.



Over Alaska, models indicate possible surface low formation over the Gulf of
Alaska which could bring unsettled weather to southern portions of the state.
However, no widespread hazards are anticipated at this time. Additionally, the
typical peak of the river ice breakup season is approaching, and ice jam
flooding can occur this time of year with little or no notice as conditions on
frozen rivers can change quickly. Please check with the Alaska Pacific River
Forecast Center for the latest conditions and advisories.

FORECASTER: Melissa Ou

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