193
FXUS21 KWNC 211902
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST January 21 2026

SYNOPSIS: Multiple Arctic air outbreaks are likely to continue overspreading
the central and eastern U.S. through at least late January. By the end of the
month, the most anomalous cold is forecast to become focused across the Ohio
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. Following this weekends winter storm,
there is an elevated chance for additional hazardous winter weather along the
East Coast. However, the exact timing and location of any low pressure
development are uncertain at this time. Enhanced onshore flow increases the
chance of heavy precipitation for southeastern Alaska from late January through
the beginning of February.

HAZARDS

High risk of much below normal temperatures for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, Thu-Sun, Jan 29-Feb 1.

Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for much of the central and
eastern U.S., Thu-Mon, Jan 29-Feb 2.

Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for much of the central and
eastern U.S., Thu-Wed, Jan 29-Feb 4.

Slight risk of high winds for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Thu-Fri, Jan
29-30.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for southeastern Alaska, Thu-Wed, Jan 29-Feb
4.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 24 - WEDNESDAY JANUARY 28:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 29 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 04: A negative phase of the Arctic
Oscillation (AO) has become well-established over the Northern Hemisphere with
positive (negative) 500-hPa height anomalies at the high (middle) latitudes.
The GEFS and ECENS depict this -AO peaking around -4 standard deviations during
the early to middle part of next week. This unusually strong negative phase of
the AO will promote a series of Arctic highs to shift south from Canada into
the central and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) through the beginning of
February. Although the ECENS remains the coldest model solution during week-2,
the ECENS and GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) have converged on their
probabilities of minimum temperatures falling below the 15th percentile. The
spatial extent of the high and moderate risks of much below-normal temperatures
are consistent with yesterday, but the latest model solutions indicate that
this anomalous cold persists longer. A high risk of much below-normal
temperatures, valid for January 29-February 1, is posted for the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys along with parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast where the
ECENS and GEFS PETs have near a 60 percent chance that minimum temperatures
fall below the 15th percentile and close to NWS cold advisory criteria. Due to
the likelihood for a swath of snowfall from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys east
to the Mid-Atlantic preceding week-2, the colder ECENS PET was preferred for
the Southeast. The ECENS PET indicates a 20 to 40 percent chance of near record
lows across the Tennessee Valley, Central to Southern Appalachians, and
Mid-Atlantic. Based on the PET guidance, a moderate risk of hazardous cold
extends from the Great Lakes and Northeast south to the Florida Peninsula
through February 2. There remains an increased chance of a freeze/frost as far
south as Central Florida. Since wind chill values could at least briefly drop
into the 30s even in South Florida, this part of the Sunshine State was
included in a moderate risk of hazardous cold. A slight risk of much
below-normal temperatures is designated for much of the eastern and
south-central CONUS. for the entirety of week-2, but temperatures are expected
to moderate across the Upper Mississippi Valley by the beginning of February.



The highly amplified 500-hPa trough could result in surface low development
near or offshore of the East Coast anytime from January 29-February 4. However,
at the beginning of week-2 (January 29), the spread among the ECENS ensemble
members has increased with where low pressure development occurs. A predicted
tight pressure gradient between low pressure over the western Atlantic and an
Arctic high across the Midwest supports a slight risk of high winds for the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through January 30. These gusty winds could result
in dangerously low wind chill values. Looking further out to early February,
the persistent mid-level trough coupled with a weakening west-based negative
NAO favors another winter storm risk for the East. These winter storm risks
will be closely monitored and a heavy snow hazard may be warranted for parts of
the eastern CONUS in subsequent outlooks.



Multi-model ensemble means are in good agreement with a persistent and
anomalous 500-hPa trough extending from Aleutians to the north-central Pacific.
This amplified mid-level trough is forecast to enhance onshore flow and
increase the chance for periods of heavy precipitation across southeastern
Alaska. Based on the GEFS and ECENS PETs (20-40% chance of 3-day amounts
exceeding the 85th percentile) and the persistent longwave pattern, the slight
risk of heavy precipitation goes through the entirety of week-2. Later in
week-2, the ECENS (wetter) and GEFS (much drier) diverge on whether enhanced
onshore flow begins to affect California. These large model differences
preclude the designation of any hazardous precipitation for California at this
time.

FORECASTER: Brad Pugh

$$