Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
605
FNUS75 KTFX 120120
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Poorman RX...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
720 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 MDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

For tonight, expect benign conditions and a modest RH recovery.
Tuesday will be warm and dry with generally light, terrain-driven
winds expected throughout the day. RH recovery Tuesday night will be
worse compared to tonight with max RH values in the 40s.

On Wednesday, winds will start to pick up out of the west/southwest
in the afternoon with min RH values in the 20s. Gusts up to 35 mph
are possible Wednesday afternoon under peak mixing conditions.
Additionally, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms with
the highest risk for thunderstorms between 3 PM and 8 PM. The main
concerns will be lightning and gusty, erratic winds.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....36-41.
Max humidity........55-60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to the east
                    overnight.

TIME (MDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........9   7   10  6   5   5   6   5   6   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............59  53  50  47  45  44  42  40  40  39
RH..............28  33  38  42  45  47  50  54  56  58
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  5   5   5   5   10  10  5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.10  10  5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....72-77.
Min humidity........12-17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light and variable winds throughout the day.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 10 mph shifting to the west late in
                    the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   7   7   6   7   11  20  21  16  23  15  19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  40  44  49  56  60  63  66  69  72  73  74
RH..............60  56  51  42  36  31  27  22  19  17  17  17
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   0   0   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.5 6.5 6.0
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....46-51.
Max humidity........41-46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph shifting to the northeast
                    early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    southeast in the late evening and overnight.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35  35  35  27  27  27  28  28  28  51  51  51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............74  72  69  61  57  55  53  53  52  50  50  50
RH..............17  18  24  30  35  38  40  40  41  43  45  45
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   NE  E   E   E   SE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.10  10  5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 25 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...22 percent.
Max temperature.....72-77.
Min humidity........24-29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 20 mph in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  24  24  43  43  43  68  68  68  68  68  68
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   30  30  30  30  30  30
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20  20
Temp............48  50  53  57  62  66  69  71  71  69  67  63
RH..............46  45  42  38  34  31  29  28  29  31  33  36
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 6.5 7.5 8.0 6.5 5.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  20  20  20  20  20

$$
Forecaster...Glinskas
Requested by...Hannah Pinkerton
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613279.1/TFX
.DELDT 05/11/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL hannah.pinkerton@usda.gov,jarel.kurtz@usda.gov,donald.iles@usda.gov,nicholas.boucher@usda.gov,jason.l.gilbert@usda.gov,tfx.ops@noaa.gov