798
FXUS65 KTFX 311505
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
805 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Winds gradually decrease through the day today, but another
   period of strong and gusty winds is likely to occur from Sunday
   night through Monday morning.

 - Temperatures will be well above normal through the next week,
   with the warmest days occurring on Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Dry conditions persist across lower elevations through the next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...

800 AM: Today it will be warm and mostly dry across North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This evening there
will be an isolated rain/snow shower along the Rocky Mountain
Front. For the update, temperatures in the Helena Valley down to
the Gallatin Valley were increased to better reflect current
observations and trends. Pops along the Rocky Mountain Front were
increased this evening to reflect the latest hi-res model
guidance. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG


551 AM: Early morning update has been published, with the main
change being to cancel the High Wind Warning for the East Glacier
Park Region, Northern High Plains, and Eastern Glacier, Western
Toole, and Central Pondera as winds have fallen below criteria and
are largely expected to remain below criteria. While a rogue wind
gusts approaching high wind criteria remains possible through the
morning hours, with cross barrier flow decreasing over Central
and North Central Montana the likelihood of widespread high winds
has greatly diminished. - Moldan

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 551 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

H500 shortwave, which brought strong and gusty southwest to west
winds to the plains of Central and North Central Montana overnight,
will continue to slide east over the International Border and
Canadian Prairie Provinces through tonight. This will lead to an
overall decrease, albeit slowly, in winds and mountain precipitation
across Southwest through North Central Montana through the day today
as transitory H500 ridging slides back in over the Northern Rockies.
High temperatures will warm some 5 to 10 degrees beneath
aforementioned ridge today before another quick moving shortwave
begins to flatten the ridge through the day on Sunday. This
shortwave will bring another period of strong and gusty winds to the
plains of Central and North Central Montana from Sunday night
through Monday morning, along with increasing precipitation chances
to the Continental Divide.

Northwesterly flow aloft in wake of the departing shortwave on
Monday will deliver the "coolest" temperatures of the upcoming week
to the Northern Rockies, with temperatures warming precipitously
through the middle to end of the work week as H500 ridging amplifies
over the Western CONUS. Overall dry conditions are expected beneath
the ridge from Tuesday through next Saturday. - Moldan

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

High Winds from Sunday night through Monday morning...

Climate anomaly indicators such as the NAEFS and ECMWF EFIs suggest
the potential for another climatologically unusual wind event along
the Rocky Mountain Front during the overnight hours of Sunday;
however, as compared to the most recent wind event (i.e. Friday
night through Saturday morning) the pressure gradient along the
Rocky Mountain Front and ridgetop stability will both be
significantly weaker. None-the-less, H700 flow per NAEFS analysis is
still prog`d to reach 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above normal,
with EFIs with respect to winds ranging from 0.5 to 0.6. NBM
probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 48kts for both Cut Bank
and Mission Lake generally range from a 40-50% chance, with the
probability for gusts in excess of 64kts for portions of the
Northern High Plains and Eastern Glacier Park Region ranging from a
10-40% chance. Given these overall low probabilities and a lower
chance for mountain wave activity we have held off on issuing any
High Wind Watches for these areas over this timeframe; however,
future shifts will need to monitor later trends.


Mild temperatures through next week...

ECMWF EFIs with respect to high temperatures continue to support a
prolonged period of unusually "warm" temperatures, with respect to
climatology, across all of Southwest through North Central Montana
for the next week as an anomalously strong upper level ridge remains
entrenched over the Western CONUS. Confidence is growing in the
potential for numerous locations to set or tie record highs during
the middle to end of the upcoming work week, most noticeably on
Wednesday and Thursday. One thing that could hold temperatures down
slightly through the work week would be upper level cloud cover, but
with NBM25th Percentile values on Wednesday and Thursday ranging from
the upper 50s to mid-60s confidence is high that temperatures will
be unseasonably mild. NBM probabilities for temperatures exceeding
70 degrees over the plains of Central Montana even range from a 10-
20% chance on Wednesday to a 20-60% chance on Thursday.

The table below reflects the probability of breaking the current
record high temperature for select cities across North Central,
Central, and Southwest Montana. - Moldan

LOCATION                Wednesday       |         Thursday
Cut Bank        48% breaking 63 degrees | 50% breaking 65 degrees
Havre           19% breaking 61 degrees | 46% breaking 58 degrees
Great Falls     61% breaking 62 degrees | 88% breaking 62 degrees
Lewistown       60% breaking 62 degrees | 90% breaking 60 degrees
Helena          29% breaking 61 degrees | 33% breaking 63 degrees
Bozeman         35% breaking 62 degrees | 53% breaking 65 degrees
Dillon          70% breaking 57 degrees | 92% breaking 57 degrees

&&

.AVIATION...
31/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 3112/0112 TAF period;
however, strong mid-level winds over Central and North Central
Montana through 15-18z Saturday will continue to bring instances
of low level wind shear and the threat for mountain wave
turbulence. Mountain obscuration will persist through 18z Saturday,
with improving visibility thereafter with the exception of the
Continental Divide where obscuration is likely for much of the
next 24 hours. - Moldan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  36  59  41 /   0  10  10   0
CTB  53  35  56  38 /   0  20   0   0
HLN  55  33  53  32 /   0  10   0   0
BZN  54  27  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  37  14  37  10 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  50  27  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  52  28  49  33 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  52  31  58  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls