684
FXUS62 KTBW 060658
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
258 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Remnant mid level moisture convergent boundary remains across
west central Florida...and combined with weak onshore flow may
allow a few showers to develop over the coastal waters during the
next couple of hours which could advect locally onshore around
sunrise. Any showers that manage to push onshore will likely
dissipate rather quickly as they push inland.

The remainder of today, high pressure surface and aloft will
build over the region. However, the main phenomena to impact
sensible weather today and through the weekend will be a SAL that
will be move over the region. This will advect much drier air
aloft over the forecast area which will significantly inhibit
convection each day through the weekend. POPs will likely run
significantly below NBM guidance with only slight chance to low
end chance pops each day. Also, increased the max temps a degree
or two each day as the NBM high pops/cloud cover likely held
temps down a bit. Could even be a bit conservative with max temps
as they could be even a bit warmer than currently forecast should
the dry air aloft mix down during the afternoon hours...with this
most likely happening on Saturday and Sunday.

Early next week, the SAL will begin to give way on Monday with
deep layer moisture gradually recovering. The surface ridge axis
will remain well south of the forecast area with onshore west to
southwest boundary layer flow. This will allow the west coast sea
breeze boundary to push inland rather quickly...with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the coastal
counties during the morning/early afternoon hours, pushing inland
and increasing slightly in areal coverage over the interior during
the mid/late afternoon.

The surface ridge axis will begin to lift north across the
central Florida peninsula on Tuesday. This will likely cause the
west/east coast sea breeze boundaries to collide over the interior
during the late afternoon with showers/thunderstorms being
enhanced along the boundary collision/highest pops.

On Wednesday, the surface ridge axis will continue to lift north
with southeast boundary layer flow developing across west central
and southwest Florida. This will aid in holding the west coast sea
breeze boundary closer to the coast...with the east coast sea
breeze colliding with the west coast sea breeze during the late
afternoon enhancing shower/thunderstorm activity over the coastal
counties late in the day.

Although deep layer moisture will increase, trend below NBM POPs
all of next week as overall moisture profiles suggest generally
climo pops area wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Predominately VFR conditions will prevail today. Slight chance of
a shower vcnty PIE/TPA/SRQ around sunrise this morning with LCL
MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon with best chance vcnty LAL with LCL MVFR
CIGs and IFR VSBYs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025
High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with
winds below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard through the
weekend will be isolated to scattered mainly late night/early
morning showers and thunderstorms. Next week, timing of
shower/thunderstorm activity will shift to the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  92  79 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  94  76  94  76 /  30  10  20  10
GIF  94  75  95  75 /  30  10  20  10
SRQ  91  77  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  93  71  93  72 /  30  10  20  10
SPG  89  78  89  79 /  30  10  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby