552
FXUS62 KTBW 071837
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
237 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered to
  numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The unsettled pattern continues over the next couple of days as a
front over north florida drifts slowly south before stalling along
the nature coast. Abundant moisture south of the boundary has led to
numerous showers and thunderstorms already today. Strongest storms
have shifted over towards the east coast. However, a few showers
and storms could continue to develop near the west coast through
the afternoon. Conditions over land begin to diminish later this
evening. However, with the boundary stalling over the nature
coast, isolated to scattered showers and storms will likely
continue to develop over the waters overnight which could
potentially move onshore early Tuesday morning.

By Tuesday afternoon high pressure to the north begins to take
control shifting the flow more easterly through Wednesday. This will
push showers and storms that develop inland, towards the west coast
in the late afternoon, evening hours. The easterly steering pattern
will not last long though, as the high pressure moves out over
the Atlantic, the flow over the area will shift back to the south
to southwest. Southwest flow will mean early morning coast showers
that move onshore, with further development inland and to towards
the east coast later in the day. Daily hazards will be the
possibility of strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy down
pours that could lead to localized urban flooding, in any storm
that develops.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Periods of below VFR conditions remain possible as showers and
storms continue to develop and move through the area. Though most
coverage has shifted over SWFL and towards the east coast, a few
pop up showers further north are still possible. Later in the
evening into the overnight hours, coast showers moving onshore
could lead to brief periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities. Coverage increases tomorrow through the day,
especially inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Though the flow remains on the light side, marine conditions
remain unsettled. Ample moisture lingers over the Gulf, which
continues to support the development of showers and storms. Though
conditions over the waters this afternoon have shifted mostly
onshore, development is expected to return later this evening into
the overnight/early morning hours. The pattern shifts by midweek,
favoring an easterly wind which will push showers and storms over
the waters later in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

No major fire weather concerns through the week as plenty of
moisture remains over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  90  77  91 /  40  70  50  80
FMY  77  93  77  93 /  30  40  40  80
GIF  75  93  75  93 /  50  60  40  80
SRQ  77  91  76  92 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  73  92  73  92 /  50  70  40  80
SPG  78  90  78  91 /  40  60  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce