799
FXUS62 KTBW 311831
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains aloft over the region this afternoon while the
surface ridge axis extends south of Florida. This setup has led to a
continuation of low-level southwest flow across the local area, with
showers over the Gulf this morning shifting inland this afternoon.
Storm coverage is not expected to be all that high through the rest
of the afternoon, but the best chances will continue to be inland.
Expect a similar setup for Friday, but with higher rain chances
especially over southwest Florida and the southern interior, where
moisture will be higher.

A weak boundary will move into the southeast and stall this weekend
into early next week, keeping southwest to west flow in place and
continuing the pattern of late night/early morning showers and
storms over the Gulf that eventually move inland through the
afternoon and evening. It looks like we switch to a more southeast
flow later in the week, with scattered storms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
A few showers and storms have popped up along the sea breeze and
these could briefly affect sites around the Tampa Bay region, though
better chances are for KLAL as everything shifts inland. Rain
chances go up a bit for tomorrow, starting around 18Z or so, but
mainly for southwest Florida sites and KLAL.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will continue over the waters for the next several
days, with no headlines expected. Showers and some storms can be
expected during the late night and early morning hours each day
before shifting over land for the afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will
continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  94  81  94 /  10  20  10  50
FMY  79  94  79  94 /  10  50  20  60
GIF  79  97  78  96 /  20  40  10  50
SRQ  80  93  79  92 /  10  30  10  40
BKV  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
SPG  82  91  81  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$