263
FXUS62 KTAE 221017
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
617 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 616 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Minor coastal flooding is expected across western portions of
  Apalachee Bay and the Florida Panhandle coast this morning.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions are expected much of the work
  week. A High Risk of rip currents is forecast the next several
  day at all area beaches along with High Surf. It is strongly
  discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the
  beach flags and advice from local officials.

- Hazardous heat returns with a low (less than 20%) chance of
  needing Heat Advisories later this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move west away from the area. A
few tropical rain bands containing torrential rain and gusty winds
will swirl ashore, especially for the western half of our area
today. Slightly drier air to the east filters eastward today and
will help limit shower and thunderstorm chances along the I-75
corridor in Georgia and the southeastern Florida Big Bend this
afternoon.

Temperatures will vary from the upper 80s to near 90 for areas along
and west of an Albany, GA to Apalachicola, FL line to the middle 90s
for areas to the east, where rain chances are lower.

Minor coastal flooding remains a concern through the high tide cycle
this morning for the Emerald Coast and the western portions of the
Forgotten Coasts, where a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect.

Dangerous beach conditions will continue today and linger through
the rest of the week as the Gulf takes a while to calm down from the
winds, seas, and swell generated by Bertha the past few days. Please
heed the beach flags and advice from local officials.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Drier weather takes over Thursday and Friday as temperatures soar
back into the lower to middle 90s. A weakening front approaches the
region over the weekend, which will help to enhance rain chances on
Sunday. Otherwise, only isolated showers and storms are forecast the
next couple of afternoons. The combination of temperatures and
elevated dew points will lead to heat indices generally between 100
to 107 through the period. There is a low (less than 20%) chance of
the Florida Big Bend and Emerald Coast experiencing Heat Advisory
criteria (heat indices at or above 108 degrees) through the weekend
with more of the area having that chance early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Occasional MVFR ceilings are expected through the morning hours at
ECP as lingering bands of showers affect the area. Gusty winds
will return to all areas by mid-morning as daytime heating
commences. However, winds will not be as high as yesterday. The
best chance of seeing showers today is across the ECP to DHN
corridor as Bertha continues to move away from the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

At 10 PM CDT Tuesday, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located about 130 miles west-southwest of Panama City. Bertha was
moving to the west at 6 mph. A generally westward movement away
from the region and toward southeast Louisiana will continue on
Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph.
Winds over the northeast Gulf will decrease on Wednesday, and
gusty squalls will diminish around midday. However, it will take
until Thursday for substantial improvement in seas to get
underway. A small bubble of high pressure will settle over the
northeast Gulf on Friday night and Saturday. Westerly flow will
increase Sunday as high pressure moves to the Southeast Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Overall, fire weather concerns remain low the next several days. The
best opportunity of tropical downpours and gusty showers will be
along and west of a line from Albany, GA to Apalachicola, FL. High
dispersions are forecast across the entire area thanks to southerly
transport winds between 15 to 25 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Occasional tropical downpours are forecast across the Florida
Panhandle into southeastern Alabama today. These could lead to some
nuisance street flooding in more urban areas thanks to high rain
rates.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from the Aucilla River
west to the Walton/Okaloosa county line. Persistent onshore flow in
Apalachee Bay produced 2-2.5 ft of inundation Tuesday with observed
flooding in the Panhandle (around 2 ft at Panama City Beach) Tuesday
afternoon during low tide. Expect additional rises during the high
tide cycles through this morning. These values/observations
typically result in flooding of low-lying beach access roads and
other coastal adjacent properties in Apalachee Bay and beach access
areas into parking lots and some low-lying roads along the immediate
coast in the Panhandle.

As Tropical Storm Bertha moves further away from the area on today,
water levels along the coast should drop enough where advisories are
no longer necessary later this afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  75  95  74 /  40   0   0   0
Panama City   88  80  91  77 /  70  10   0   0
Dothan        92  74  95  73 /  50  10  10   0
Albany        94  74  96  75 /  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      95  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    94  74  96  74 /  10   0  20   0
Apalachicola  90  80  91  77 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for FLZ108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108-
     112-114.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ108-
     112-114.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ115-127.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for FLZ115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GMZ730-765.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ735.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ751-752-770-
     772.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ755-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Godsey