822
FXUS62 KTAE 311856
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
256 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Pattern change is not too far off in the distance for the region but
until that pattern change, we`ll potentially go through at least one
more day of heat advisories for some of the region.

In the upper levels, a ridge is will begin to break down into the
weekend as a broad upper level trough slowly drops down into the
southeastern US on Friday. This will begin to bring more widespread
southwesterly flow to the region along with increasing PWATs into
the short/long term period below. With moisture on the return, and
the influence of the ridge beginning to dissipate, shower/storm
coverage will be a little greater than this afternoon. The best
chances will remain across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama where
the influence of the ridge is not as large and deep-layer moisture
content is better.

As for heat advisory potential, we`ll still likely need another
round of heat advisories for some of the forecast area on Friday.
However, given increasing coverage of storms, and slightly lower
temperatures in some areas, will leave it to the midnight shift to
decide once we get a little more confidence on potential convective
evolution for Friday. The most likely locations for heat advisories
will be across our Florida counties, and possibly into some of
Georgia counties where rainfall chances are lower compared to our
western counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Friday night through Saturday night will be a transition period,
transitioning from the ongoing hot weather, to weather that is
less hot with more clouds and abundant convection.

Friday evening will start off with the service area located within
the northern portion of a strong 500 mb subtropical ridge axis
across Florida. However, a distinct break or weakness will develop
in our portion of the subtropical ridge on Saturday and Saturday
night, with 500 mb heights falling around 30 meters in a single
12-hour period on Saturday. This will open the door to an
uncommon early August cold front, which will sag south through
Alabama and Georgia. The front will never quite reach the Gulf,
instead turning up stationary and stalling across Middle/South
Alabama and Georgia starting Saturday night.

The air mass in the vicinity of the stalled front will be very
moist. GEFS plume diagrams show Precipitable Water (PW) values
most likely in the very moist 2.1 to 2.3 inch range. With such a
moist air mass, it will not take much lift to wring out
precipitation. However, we will have a few large-scale forcing
mechanisms to aid lift. The low- level front will be a focus for
surface convergence, thanks to NE winds on the poleward side of
the front, and SW winds on the equatorward side of the front. On
Saturday, our Georgia counties may come under the right entrance
region of an upper-level jet streak sweeping across the U.S. Mid-
Atlantic region. Of course, we will still have common summertime
mesoscale sources of lift such as the seabreeze front. See the
hydro section for more specifics on rainfall.

By Sunday, our northern counties along the north of the U.S. 82
corridor may actually get into the cooler air north of the front.
Between clouds, rain, and a NE wind north of Albany and Tifton,
highs may only top out in the low-mid 80s. South of there, upper
80s will still be several degrees below normal for early August.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

The stalled front will still be in place on Monday across south
Alabama and south Georgia. Large-scale surface convergence and the
very moist air mass will make Monday another day with abundant
showers and thunderstorms.

The front will lose definition on Tuesday and become indiscernible
on Tuesday night. We should come under deep south-southwest flow
next Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to the subtropical ridge
trying to rebuild across the Bahamas and South Florida, and lower
pressure near the Louisiana and/or Upper Texas coast.
Thunderstorm coverage should diminish to a more normal scattered
coverage, and daytime temperatures will return to more typical
early August highs in the low-mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the day. Hit or miss
showers/storms could bring brief MVFR/IFR visibilities to area TAFs
with the greater probabilities being at DHN/ABY this afternoon and a
lower probability at TLH/VLD/ECP. Shower and storm activity
should end later this evening and quiet conditions are expected
overnight. Brief MVFR cigs/vis can`t be ruled out at some
terminals overnight, but confidence in any locations remains very
low so have not mentioned in the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Gentle to moderate southwest breezes will prevail through Monday,
as the subtropical ridge nudges in from the Bahamas to the
southeast Gulf, and a summer cold front stalls north of the
waters across Alabama and Georgia. The front will wash out by
Tuesday, and lower pressure across the upper Texas and Louisiana
coasts bring a more southerly wind to the northeast Gulf waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Above normal temperatures and dangerously high heat index values
will continue through Friday, and possibly into Saturday. A summer
cold front will sag south across the region later Saturday and then
stall out on Sunday and Monday. With a stalled front and a very
moist air mass, abundant thunderstorm coverage and widespread
wetting rains are expected from late Saturday through at least
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Saturday through Monday will be the main hydrologic period of
concern. Isolated flash flooding is possible on these days, with
our Georgia counties likely to get isolated flash flooding on
Saturday.

An uncommon early August cold front will stall out across our
Alabama and Georgia counties from late Saturday through Monday
night or Tuesday. The very moist air mass and larger-scale lift
from the stalled front will support thunderstorms with intense
rainfall rates. The stationary front could support training or
perhaps some backbuilding storms, which would allow rainfall
totals to add up quickly.

From Saturday through Monday, most places should pick up 2-4
inches of rain. The heaviest rains are expected Saturday PM
through Sunday. Spotty amounts of 4-7 inches are possible,
especially in our Georgia counties. Rises are likely on many area
rivers early next week, but rivers are expected to be able to
handle these rains and remain well within their banks.

Where those higher-end totals happen in a short duration, then
isolated flash flooding should be expected. WPC has outlooked
most of South Georgia with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of
Excessive Rainfall for Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  94  76  91 /  10  70  20  90
Panama City   80  92  80  91 /  20  60  40  80
Dothan        76  93  75  90 /  20  70  20  90
Albany        76  95  75  90 /  20  60  40  90
Valdosta      76  96  76  93 /  20  50  30  90
Cross City    77  94  76  93 /   0  30  20  70
Apalachicola  80  90  80  89 /  10  60  30  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ125>131-143>148-
     155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner