256
FXUS64 KSJT 102320
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
620 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
  through late tonight. Potential hazards include a few tornadoes,
  very large hail peaking at 3.5+ inches in diameter, damaging
  wind gusts peaking at 74+ mph, and frequent lightning.

- There is also a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the
  thunderstorm activity this afternoon through late tonight. This
  could result in flash flooding and urban/small stream flooding.

- Strong north winds will follow a cold frontal passage on
  Wednesday.

- Thursday morning lows down in the 30s possible in at least parts
  of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening and tonight)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Severe weather potential is still fairly high across West Central
Texas as a potent upper level system approaches. Latest CAMs
continue the trend of a dryline approaching the western border of
the area by mid/late afternoon. Cape values expected to increase
to 2000j/kg or more, with plenty of shear provided by the upper
system. CAMs show rapid convective initiation developing across
the southwest portions of the area and spreading northeast. These
storms may rapidly become severe. SPC has this well covered and
not going to rehash at this point. Forcing increases as the
pacific front overtakes the dryline and the storms may transition
into a line and sweep across the Heartland and Hill Country.

Will want to keep an eye on the southeast portions of the area
this evening once the low level jet begins to redevelop. If the
transition to a line hasn`t happened yet and storms are still
discrete, the potential for an increase in tornado potential may
exist.

Also want to keep an eye on the Hill Country and Heartland for
heavy rainfall potential. Latest HRRR lingers the heavy rainfall
across areas like San Saba, Brady, and Junction as the low level
jet expands the rainfall back to the northwest. Movement of the
squall line may be fast enough to prevent this from happening, but
if its not then rain totals may add up fast over there in some
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...Turning Windy and Cooler Wednesday...

A cold front with strong north winds will move into the Big Country
mid/late morning Wednesday and early afternoon across the rest of
West Central Texas, bringing windy conditions. North winds will
likely reach wind advisory speeds in the Big Country in the
afternoon, with gusts of 40 to 45 mph. Will not put out wind
advisory at this time, but let the next shift monitor for its
inclusion, after tonight`s severe weather.

While rain chances were left out Wednesday, there is a non zero
chance of a sprinkle or shower, in Heartland...Mcculloch, San
Saba, Brown, Mason counties...as the upper low moves overhead.

Weakening winds and clearing skies Wednesday night, will bring
cooler temperatures, with lows of 35 to 40 degrees expected, The
coldest readings will be in Haskell and Throckmorton counties, where
winds will be lightest.

Much warmer temperatures expected by Friday and Saturday, with highs
potentially reaching 90 degrees Saturday. Windy on Sunday with
another cold front, and will be monitoring Monday and Tuesday
mornings for the potential for a brief light freeze, particularly in
low lying areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms from Abilene to San Angelo to
Sonora at 23Z will move east across KBBD and KJCT between 1 and
3Z. Variable winds 40 to 50 KTs possible with the storms along
with IFR visibilities in heavy rainfall and hail. Storms should be
east of KABI and KSJT by 1Z and KSOA 2z. A cold front will bring
strong north winds up to 30 to 35 KTS late morning into the
afternoon.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     54  72  38  67 /  70   0   0   0
San Angelo  51  75  39  70 /  70   0   0   0
Junction    51  78  38  68 /  90  10   0   0
Brownwood   53  76  38  67 /  90  10   0   0
Sweetwater  53  69  39  69 /  50   0   0   0
Ozona       50  77  40  70 /  70   0   0   0
Brady       54  74  40  64 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04