204
FXUS64 KSJT 311853
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
153 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances return this evening for the Big Country
  and expand across West Central Texas for Friday and Saturday
  afternoons.

- Warmer conditions expected to return for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

As of early this afternoon, the front is moving south through the
Big Country, turning winds to the north. The front is expected to
stall over the area for today and tomorrow. We could see a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening
behind the front, with some activity lingering overnight. The
HRRR is being particularly aggressive with overnight convection
in the Big Country tonight, but the other models show much less
coverage. This is something we`re going to have to keep an eye on.
Some of the CAMs are showing morning convection in the Big
Country and afternoon/evening convection further south in the
Concho Valley, Heartland, I-10 corridor area for tomorrow. Exact
locations of the isolated to scattered storms tomorrow is
uncertain, but we are expecting at least a few storms in the area.
Precipitable Water values look to exceed 1.5 inches tomorrow
afternoon, so any storm that develops could quickly drop around 1
to 3 inches before weakening. Heavy rainfall will have the
potential to lead to localized flash flooding. The WPC has us
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

There may be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across
mainly eastern areas during the evening hours Friday, but these
should end before Midnight.

On Saturday, a with weak outflow boundaries in the area, there
will continue to be isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
chances, but mainly southeast of an Abilene to Ozona line. These
precipitation chances, along with increased cloud cover could save
our area from hitting triple digits on a widespread basis, with
highs mainly in the upper 90s for Saturday. However, a few
readings of 100 aren`t out of the question. Sunday afternoon into
the evening hours, a shortwave trough is expected to move
southeast through the southern plains with the western fringe of
this feature potentially aiding in scattered thunderstorms for
areas north and east of a Sweetwater to San Saba line.
Temperatures will begin warming Sunday, with highs in the upper
90s to around 102 degrees.

From Monday through most of next week, a summer-like pattern is
expected to set up, with a strong upper level ridge centered
mainly in New Mexico and Arizona through next Friday. With that,
we will see temperatures continue to be warm, (highs in the upper
90s to near 105), lows mainly in the 70s, and a mainly dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

A cold front is moving through the Big Country, turning winds to
the north. The front is expected to stall over the area today into
tomorrow, leading to northerly or light and variable winds across
the area. We could see isolated storms this evening and tomorrow
morning in the Big Country. But confidence is too low to include
them in the Abilene TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  94  72  97 /  10  30  10  20
San Angelo  73  95  73  97 /   0  20  10  20
Junction    73  98  73  96 /   0  30  10  30
Brownwood   73  95  72  95 /   0  30  20  30
Sweetwater  74  94  72  98 /  10  30  10  10
Ozona       72  96  72  95 /   0  20  10  10
Brady       73  95  72  94 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...AP