075
FXUS64 KSJT 060644
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
144 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions expected this weekend.

- Severe thunderstorms possible across the Big Country Saturday
  and Sunday.

- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated for at least the first
  half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A few showers and storms continue across portions of the Permian
Basin and South Plains early this morning, and will continue to
monitor their eastward progress to see if they can reach West
Central Texas before dissipating. Meanwhile, finally got rid of
the dissipating showers south of San Angelo that produced 60 to 90
minutes of 50+ mph winds across the area from Mertzon to San
Angelo.

For today, almost a repeat of Thursday expected. Upper level ridge
axis to the south and an upper trough to the west will help
confine the best location for convection across the Permian Basin
north into eastern New Mexico, South Plains, and Panhandle. Much
like this morning, some of the activity may make an eastward run
towards West Central Texas, but odds are relatively low and POPs
will be kept to a minimal for now. The RRFS-A may have the best
chances for the northwest Big Country this evening and will make
sure that area as a mention of POPs.

As for temperatures, not much difference this afternoon, with
highs perhaps climbing into the mid 90s in many locations.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Look for an active weather pattern with a few rounds of
thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday. The combination of a
stationary front and mid level westerlies will result in scattered
thunderstorms developing Saturday and Sunday late afternoons and
evening across the South Plains north Permian Basin on east into
the Big Country. The combination of strong instability and
favorable vertical wind shear will result in a few severe storms,
with isolated significant severe weather possible mainly north of
I-20. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and an
isolated tornado. A few storms may make it as far south as the
Concho Valley and Heartland.

For Monday and Tuesday a favorable upper level west-northwest flow
pattern may bring more thunderstorm complexes into much of the
area. Can not rule out isolated severe weather on these days.
Also, northwest flow is more favorable for nocturnal convection
and this may happen. A better chance for heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding mainly across the northern 2/3 of the
area. Going with low to medium chance of rain Sunday through
Tuesday. Still going with low chances of rain Wednesday and
Thursday.

Expect hot temperatures this weekend with highs in the mid 90s to
around 102 areawide and from the 80s across the Big Country to
upper 90s along I-10 corridor Monday then cooling to the 80s to
lower 90s middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Evaporative cooling from the showers just south of the airport
will continue to put out wind gusts to 50 mph for the next hour or
a little more, but eventually the showers will completely
dissipate and the wind speeds will die down. Otherwise, generally
VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. There may
still be a brief period of MVFR cigs right around sunrise across
the southern and central terminals, but these should not last
through mid morning. South winds will gust near 20 kts mainly
during daylight hours, and with any situation like we have this
morning around dissipating convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  73  98  74 /   0  10   0  10
San Angelo  95  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    94  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   93  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  96  73 100  74 /  10  10   0  10
Ozona       92  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       92  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...07