538
FXUS64 KSHV 060554
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1254 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

As of 930 PM CDT, temperatures continue to slowly cool from the
lower 80s under mostly cloudy skies. Ongoing cloud cover from
upstream activity will moderate temperature minimums into the
mid-to-upper 70s, making for another mild night across the Four
State Region. With weather and observed trends continuing as
anticipated, additional forecast and hazard grid adjustments were
not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Warm and muggy/hazy this afternoon with only a light S/SW wind
for most of us with several locales even showing calm. Dew points
are up there in the low to mid 70s and our heat indices are
edging into triple digit "feels-like" territory for a few spots.
Our skies are partly to mostly cloudy and we have lower and upper
decking at this time. Some TCUs with a light peppering of showers
few and far between, likely due to the elevated concentrations of
particulates with the Saharan dust encroachment. The closest
lightning is well north of Little Rock and there are some larger
clusters in W OK.

There is an inverted surface trough over W TX and much of OK and
this breeding ground will persist for new development under the
light W/SW flow aloft with a weak air mass around 1015mb over the
plains. The upper trough will slowly be sliding E/SE in the
coming days ahead of the air mass activity. This will boost our
convective coverage into the weekend, but rising heights aloft for
now us will amount to more heating on the surface in the short term.
Highs will make a nudge toward more low to mid 90s and lows will
see low to mid 70s as the muggies build under this weak dirty
ridging aloft we have right now and through the short term. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

We will eventually see enhanced convective coverage for the
weekend, much of which may be nocturnal initially. The overnight
low level jet action sets up over the dust layer and the coming
shifting aloft to W/SW will help with the lift as well. The GFS
and ECMWF both show weak high pressure well to our north this
weekend, and then early next week, a more substantial air mass at
1018/19 mb will move over the plains states and help to focus the
better lift over the Red River Valley and across the ArkLaTex
Sunday into Monday.

So pretty normal motions for late spring really as the storm
track has been to our north for a good while already and we just
left to hover in between the super muggy and cooler and drier
air masses. The good news is that the added clouds associated
with the convection will bring less insolation, and then the
lowering heights aloft will as well along with the changing
directions up stairs will help as well. The WPC depicts these
changes for us with their excessive rainfall forecasts. We see the
Slight Risk settle into our far north early over the weekend and
then persist overhead for us with a Marginal Risk into the new
week on the days 3-5. So, as is typical this time of year, slow
storm motions play the greatest role in these numbers each day.
And increased storm numbers goes right along with that, despite
weakening production in the pattern with descending latitudes.

The WPC days 4 & 5 QPF sport the highest daily totals for us
early next week as the air mass sinks into the muggy Gulf air with
some 1 to 3 inch expectations. The greatest risk for us severe
wise will come this weekend, with the SPC Slight Risk area sinking
closer in each day, still damaging winds primary. Eventually, the
severe threat will circle back around to the isolated flooding
threat as the numbers of players (thunderstorms) on the field
increases. Our temperatures will ease back to more normalized
climatology with the added clouds and rain. Highs will see more
and more 80s by late weekend and perhaps areawide early next week.
Low temps will fall back a handful of degrees with mid to upper
60s and lower 70s in the long term picture. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the 06/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail for the moment
with just cirrus blowoff from upstream convection. However, low
stratus cigs are expected to make a return closer to daybreak at
our East TX terminals as S/SE flow maintains a steady moisture
transport. Farther north and east across our AR and LA terminals,
stratus is not expected to be as concentrated so although cigs
aren`t currently advertised, some 1Kft-2.5Kft SCT decks will be
possible through late morning before lifting into an afternoon cu
field. Any convection that does manage to advance southward into
our airspace should be confined to the KTXK terminal so have VCTS
by 06/17Z to account for this possibility. Otherwise, remaining
terminals should stay convection-free with light S/SE winds this
morning trending more SW between 6-12 kts on Friday afternoon.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  77  96  77 /  20   0   0  30
MLU  93  76  95  75 /  30   0  10  40
DEQ  88  71  90  68 /  30  10  30  50
TXK  91  75  94  73 /  20  10  10  50
ELD  91  72  93  70 /  20  10  10  50
TYR  90  75  92  75 /  20   0   0  20
GGG  91  74  93  74 /  20   0   0  30
LFK  94  74  95  75 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19