695
FXUS64 KSHV 311850
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
150 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

 - The Extreme Heat Warning/Heat Advisory both remain in effect
   until 7PM this evening. Expectation is for a Heat Advisory
   along and south of I-20 for Friday afternoon to be issued
   in our overnight zone package.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
   across much of the Four-State area tonight and "Some may be
   Heavy" on Friday and Friday night with slow movement along the
   cold front. Per coordination with WPC, some of NE TX will have
   a Slight Excessive Risk Outlook through Friday and overnight.

 - The cold front remains on track with drier air from the NE
   during the mid to late day north of I-20 and then dropping
   southward Friday evening and overnight. So we are still looking
   good to be able to part with the heat headlines this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Cool pool formation is well underway with thunderstorms
clustering in central Arkansas and expanding southwestward. The
cold front lies just to the north and will have much work done in
the wake of this activity. Meanwhile, the heat today has been
here and there with lots of AC and cirrus early, but lots of
sunshine is now looming for the remainder of this afternoon. And
still perhaps some compressional heating ahead of the cold front
to spike calculations through the late afternoon hours.

The SPC day one outlook has a Marginal Risk for severe with wind
damage the primary threat with this approaching cluster and rain
cooled air crashing down into the hot air near surface. As per key
messages, the WPC is planning for a small Slight Risk ERO for NE
TX tomorrow day and night. While not widespread enough for a
Flood Watch, we may see an isolated warning or at least some
flood advisory criteria with the likely pops and the slow
movement of storms expected to persist. The cold front looks to
spread around even more upper 80s on Saturday as clouds will
linger with the refreshing NE winds. Sunday morning looks to be a
nice day with mid to upper 60s north and low 70s across our
southern tier of Co/Pa.

The air temps remain below average for a couple of days and then
ease back to average and above b mid to late work/school week.
The chance for rainfall will linger beyond the weekend, as
tropical moisture and the associated easterly wave propagation
underneath, run along the boundary of the midWest 1029mb air mass
sprawling all the way down across I-20 for days. Modification of
the air mass is always a truth apart from it`s continental source
region. However, the push into August is already looking up with a
secondary air mass of 1020+mb during next weekend. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Starting to see isolated convection early this afternoon across
portions of Southwest Arkansas and Deep East Texas. This convection
should continue to develop and could impact most any terminal across
our airspace through 03z this evening. Have therefore prevailed VCTS
at all terminals beginning at 20-21z this evening. Model time/height
cross sections support the possibility of MVFR ceilings near and
north of the I-20 Corridor late tonight just before sunrise and
continuing through the end of the 18z TAF period on Friday so did
add this mention as well. Otherwise outside of convection, look for
VFR conditions to prevail, at least until the predawn hours Friday
Morning.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  94  76  90 /  30  60  40  50
MLU  76  94  73  91 /  30  70  30  40
DEQ  72  87  69  88 /  30  50  20  20
TXK  75  93  73  91 /  30  50  30  30
ELD  73  89  70  88 /  40  50  20  20
TYR  76  97  73  89 /  10  50  40  50
GGG  76  96  73  88 /  20  60  50  60
LFK  76  98  75  91 /  30  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 7PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ050-051-059>061-70>073

LA...Extreme Heat Warning until 7PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-
011>014-018>022 and Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for
LAZ010-017.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 7PM CDT
Thursday for TXZ097-112 and Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday
for TXZ096-108>111-124>126- 136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13