665
FXUS63 KSGF 221742
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some areas of fog through this morning, with localized dense
  fog in locations along and south of the Ozark Plateau. Reduced
  visibilities around one mile or less at times. Potential for
  additional fog development tonight into Sunday morning.

- Widespread rain chances (60-90%) return Sunday night through
  Monday. Exact timing and amounts will continue to fluctuate
  due to some remaining uncertainty with this next system.

- Increasing confidence in below average temperatures by mid
  next week into Thanksgiving, and potentially continuing into
  next weekend. Highs in the 40s to near 50, and lows in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

This Morning:
Cold air advection continues on the backside of a departing low
pressure system to the east. Sufficient low-level moisture
remains in place, with a low cloud stratus deck around 200 to
400 feet over the Ozarks region. As some of the stratus builds
down, there will be some areas of fog that develop. Reduced
visibilities around 1 mile or less may occur at times through
this morning, though the extent of coverage is not expected to
be widespread. Instead, localized areas of dense fog is the more
likely scenario. Confidence in localized dense fog is highest
along the Ozark Plateau and south towards the MO/AR border.
Additionally, the areas of fog have been transient in nature,
with visibilities fluctuating over short periods of time and
distance. Given this setup, have elected to not issue a Dense
Fog Advisory for the time being. Monitor for updates or changes
through the morning.

Today-Tonight:
As we progress into this afternoon, clouds will linger over much
of the area. The latest guidance keeps the cloud deck in place
through at least early to mid afternoon before clearing
gradually occurs from north to south. As a result, high
temperatures may underachieve, with the current forecast in the
middle to upper 50s. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are
expected through today with subtle mid-level ridging into the
region ahead of the trough building over the Baja/Four Corners.
Lows fall into the lower to middle 40s tonight. Some localized
areas of fog cannot be ruled out, especially along waterways
and valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Sunday-Monday:
Mid-level height rises overspread the region into Sunday,
supporting highs returning into the lower to middle 60s. Dry
weather is expected the majority of the day on Sunday before the
next system begins to build out of the Southern Plains. This
system will feature the return of widespread rain chances
(70-90%) late Sunday night into Monday. Ensemble guidance trends
continue to support widespread measurable rainfall, primarily in
the form of showers with a low chance (10-20%) for a few
embedded thunderstorms along the MO/AR border. This system is
supported by increasing southerly flow advecting moisture into
the area. Southerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph can be expected
through Monday. Rain chances remain highest Monday morning
through Monday afternoon. As for potential amounts, NBM depicts
the highest to occur along and south of Interstate 44. NBM
probabilities are a bit lower than previous forecasts for this
area:

Prob > 0.5 inch: 40-70%
Prob > 1.0 inch: 20-50%

With this in mind, we not looking at any flooding with this
system despite widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in this area
over the last few days. Instead, this will remain a beneficial
rainfall given the lingering drought conditions. Rainfall
amounts will fall off further north of Interstate 44. It is
worth noting there remains some uncertainty amongst the
guidance, with exact details of timing and amounts to be pinned
down over the next 24 to 48 hours. Rain chances look to diminish
into Monday night from west to east.

Tuesday-Next Weekend:
By Tuesday, the early week system slides east of the region with
a cold front progged to translate through the Middle Mississippi
Valley. This cold front is tied to a passing trough across the
north, ushering in a cooler airmass for mid week. This will
support highs in the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday, and
overnight lows in the middle to upper 20s. The cooler weather
will be accompanied by mostly dry weather through mid to late
week. This includes the Thanksgiving Holiday next Thursday,
with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

By next weekend, confidence is a bit lower with regards to
temperatures, as NBM interquartile spreads remain 10 degrees or
greater. For the time being, the forecast is leaning towards
seasonable to below average temperatures. Additionally, the
upper-level pattern appears to become more active, supporting
the return of rain chances next weekend. Confidence remains
lower given the differences from model run to run and
timing/position of synoptic features.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

An area of persistent stratus is expected to keep the region in
IFR flight conditions through this afternoon into the overnight
hours. With weak surface and middle level flow clearing for the
regions terminals will be slow to occur. Some improvement to
MVFR ceilings is expected this evening before temperatures fall
enough to bring lower ceilings and visibilities again late
tonight into Sunday morning.

Flight conditions are expected to improve to VFR late Sunday
morning. This will occur in advance of a storm system that will
being the potential for more rain to the region Sunday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Hatch