373
FXUS63 KSGF 102030
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph taper off through
  the late afternoon and evening.

- Near to above average temperatures through Friday. The warmest
  temperatures will be focused across the south and west with
  highs in the middle to upper 50s.

- Cooler temperatures gradually settle into the are Friday night
  through Sunday, with the coldest temperatures on Sunday. High
  confidence in minimum wind chills on Sunday morning around -5
  to 10 degrees.

- Dry through most of the period, with precipitation chances
  around 10-20% returning mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Through Tonight:
Northwest flow persists across the region today with a longwave
trough stretching through the eastern half of the CONUS. An
associated surface low has translated into the eastern Great
Lakes region. Northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph persist
through the remainder of the afternoon before dissipating after
sunset with the system sliding east. Surface high pressure
settles south into the area tonight, with winds becoming light
and variable. Meanwhile, widespread cloud cover overspreads the
area overnight, with lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s. The
coldest temperatures will be across the eastern Ozarks.

Thursday:
By Thursday, a surface warm front is progged to lift through the
area with a developing low across the Plains. This will support
a switch of winds back out of the south-southwest, with
afternoon gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph. Additionally, a surge
of warmer temperatures overspreads the area with highs ranging
from upper 40s (east) to middle/upper 50s (west). The warmest
temperatures will be focused across southeast KS into southwest
MO, where NBM probabilities of exceeding 55 degrees range from
70-90%. A few locations may even approach 60. A mix of sun and
some clouds through Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

This Weekend:
For Friday, a dip in the jet stream will allow a cold front to
sink into portions of the area with winds turning out of north.
The latest trends in the guidance has made the forecast more
clear for the weekend ahead, with a better consensus on
temperatures. The mostly likely scenario supports the initial
cold front slowly filtering in cooler air into the northern half
of the area, with a wide range of temperatures from north to
south on Friday and Saturday. The temperature gradient will
range from upper 30s/lower 40s (north) to upper 40s/lower 50s
(south). As referenced, interquartile temperature spreads have
shrunk significantly over the last 24 hours, thus higher
confidence in the forecast. No precipitation is expected through
the weekend.

As we progress into Saturday night and Sunday, a stronger cold
front and associated high pressure dive south of the Arctic.
This will bring us an invasion of much colder air, with current
guidance depicting overnight lows into Sunday morning ranging
from single digits to teens across the area. Breezy north winds
around 10 to 15 mph will support minimum wind chills as a low as
-5 to 10 degrees on Sunday morning. With a strong 1040 surface
high over the area, highs will struggle to warm too much on
Sunday with temperatures forecast to range from middle 20s
(north) to lower 30s (south). Based on NBM probabilistic
guidance, there are high probabilities (60-90%) that most
locations top out at or below freezing on Sunday afternoon.
Overnight lows drop into the teens to lower 20s Sunday night. As
we hone in on the forecast this weekend, there is the potential
for guidance to come in even colder as it gets a better handle
on the airmass.

Next Week:
A cold start to the week on Monday morning, with wind chills in
the single digits. The late weekend cold snap will be fairly
short-lived as a ridge builds into the region on Monday.
Southerly flow returns, ushering in a warmer airmass, with highs
rebounding into the 40s on Monday. The warming trend is forecast
to continue into mid-week, with highs back above normal for mid-
December in the 50s. This return of mild temperatures will put
the area 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Confidence is medium to
high in this return of mild temperatures, in addition to a
mostly dry stretch of weather. NBM suggests low PoPs (10-20%)
clip the area in the later part of the forecast period, though
confidence is low. This mostly dry stretch of weather may
further worsen ongoing drought conditions across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Northwest winds continue to gust through the afternoon,
before tapering off this evening. Wind gusts approach 25 to 35
knots. Winds become light and variable overnight, before
turning back out of the south-southwest on Thursday morning.
Additionally, some cloud cover overspreads the area through
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez