950
FXUS63 KSGF 292337
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
637 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm to near record temperatures continue today. Highs
  10 to 20 degrees above normal for late October in the lower
  to middle 80s.

- Strong southerly wind gusts of 30-45 mph will continue through
  tonight. Winds and low humidity will continue elevated fire
  conditions this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
  areas west of Springfield today and tonight.

- Line of severe storms is expected overnight Wednesday night
  into Thursday. Slight to Enhanced risk for severe storms with
  the highest chances along and west of Highway 65. Rainfall
  amounts between 0.5 to 1 inch.

- Unsettled pattern with high rain chances for the weekend into
  next week (60-80% chances).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a southwest upper level flow pattern as
shortwave energy moves into the rockies. Low level moisture
continues to increase into the area with low 60 dewpoints
advecting into the area. An expansive cumulus field was located
across the area however breaks in the clouds were allowing for
temps to surge into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds were gusty
as low pressure continues to strengthen out west with gusts up
to 45mph west of Springfield. Clouds have kept the RH values a
little higher today however areas northeast of Springfield have
seen more sunshine with RH now down into the 40-50% range.

Through Tonight: Temps will continue to climb this afternoon
with some records in jeopardy depending on cloud cover. The low
levels will remain mixed through the overnight hours with wind
gusts in the 30-35mph range. The Wind Advisory will remain in
effect overnight. Temps will remain very mild with most places
remaining in the 60s which could create record warm lows.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: A shortwave trough will
continue to push out into the plains during the day with a cold
front moving east across Kansas. HREF data suggests increased
cloud cover again during the day given the low level moisture however
given the warm start we expect highs to increase into the upper
70s to lower 80s. Wind gusts look to remain in the 30-35 mph
range.

By late afternoon and early evening, there are indications that
a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may begin to form well
out ahead of the front across southeast Kansas and western
Missouri. However the higher chances and severity of storms
looks to occur Wednesday night (generally after 9pm) as the cold
front moves in with a line of thunderstorms. One trend we have
seen over the last 24 hours is an increase in ML CAPE values. We
are now in the range of high res guidance with HREF data
suggesting mean CAPE values around 500j/kg with some CAMS
showing as high as 1000j/kg across southeast Kansas. The
instability will likely be in a narrow corridor, however and
could still increase or decrease. The overall kinematic
environment will be supportive of organized storms with 0-6km
shear of 40-50kts, 0-3km shear of 35-40kts and 0-1km SRH of
300-400m2s2 (decent low level curvature in hodographs west of
Springfield). Therefore a line of storms with bowing segments
seems to be favored. Damaging winds up to 70mph and a few
tornadoes will be the most likely hazards since lapse rates will
not be as supportive for large hail above 1 inch. SPC has
increased the tornado and wind probs, with the highest chances
along and west of Highway 65. We will need to closely monitor
instability trends, especially if they continue to increase as
that could push the severe threat further east through the rest
of the area as well as increase the severity. Rainfall amounts
from the HREF LPMM generally support a 0.5-1inch spectrum.

As stated above this looks to be a night time severe threat with
the bulk of the storms southeast of the area by 6-8am Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Thursday and Friday: Surface high pressure looks to build in for
the remainder of Thursday and Friday with dry conditions. 850mb
temps do cool down with northerly winds therefore NBM data is in
good agreement with highs in the 60s (average).

Saturday through Monday: Ensembles continue to suggest a large
trough pushing through the western US this weekend into early
next week. This should open the door to continued precip
chances as several waves move up from the southwest. The main
difference currently is when the precip begins as ensemble
guidance with the GEFS is much quicker than EURO ensembles.
Precip chances do look high for Sunday and Monday however
(60-80%) as a continual fetch of low level moisture will
interact with approaching energy. Latest NBM data continues to
show the potential for heavy rainfall with >50% of 2 inches of
rainfall Sunday - Tuesday for areas along and northwest of I-44.
This axis could shift therefore stay up on later forecasts for
additional rainfall forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

VFR and gusty conditions will persist through most or all of the
TAF period. The exception could be at KJLN where thunderstorms
may move in toward the end of this TAF period late Wednesday
evening. The storms will then move across KBBG and KSGF
tomorrow night. Some storms may be severe.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024


Record High Temperatures:

October 29:
KSGF: 86/1950
KJLN: 87/1950
KVIH: 86/1950


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

October 29:
KSGF: 63/2004

October 30:
KSGF: 64/1946

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ066-077-088-093-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Burchfield