717
FXUS63 KSGF 090550
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1150 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures will continue today and Monday, as highs
  warm into the 50s.

- Periods of rain will continue to move across portions of
  southern Missouri this afternoon into early this evening,
  mainly southeast of I-44. Rainfall chances and amounts will be
  highest across south central Missouri where up to around a
  quarter to a half inch will occur.

- Patchy drizzle and fog will be possible at times this evening
  into Monday morning.

- Brief cool down on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
  middle/upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024

An upper level trough is currently located across Oklahoma this
afternoon. Ahead of the trough a warm air mass is in place
as highs are in the middle 50s to the lower 60s currently this
afternoon. Scattered rain showers are also moving across
portions of the area as a larger area of showers is located
across Arkansas ahead of the trough. The upper level trough will
continue to move east through the region this evening into
tonight. The rain showers currently located across Arkansas this
will continue to move northeast across portions of southern
Missouri the rest of this afternoon into this evening, mainly
southeast of I-44. The highest chances and rainfall amounts
will occur across south central Missouri where up to around one
quarter to locally one half of an inch of rainfall will occur.

Low level clouds will linger across the area this evening into
Monday. With lift from the trough some patch drizzle and fog will
be possible at times this evening into Monday morning, which
could lower visibilities at times into Monday morning.

Lows will only cool into the 40s tonight into Monday morning as
highs warm into the 50s on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024

Another upper level trough will move across the plains Monday
night and across the the region on Tuesday. An associated cold
front will move through the area Monday night with a colder air
mass advecting in behind the front. Highs on Tuesday will only
warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s. There is a low chance,
less than 10%, for some very light precipitation occurring with
the passage of the trough on Tuesday. A drier air mass will be
in place across the area which will limit the overall
precipitation chances with the trough.

The colder air mass will remain over the region as highs again
warm into the middle 30s to the lower 40s again on Wednesday.
Lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will drop into the
lower to middle 20s as lows in the middle teens to lower 20s
occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The ensemble model members overall show a warming trend late
week into next weekend with temperatures near to slightly above
normal overall, as a more zonal upper level flow pattern sets
up across the region. Models show a few shortwave troughs moving
across the region at some point from late week into the
weekend, but there are still differences on the exact track and
timing of these waves and there is still a range in potential
temperatures each day depending on the exact timing of these
troughs. There will be some scattered rain chances across the
area with the passage of the shortwaves late week into the
weekend depending on the exact timing of the troughs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2024

Low cloud cover and areas of light drizzle were in place across
the region late this evening and are expected to linger into
the early morning hours across the top of the plateau. Fog is
expected to develop across southern Missouri impacting the KJLN
and KBBG terminals around sunrise. Flight conditions will be
primarily IFR with low clouds slowly lifting into the afternoon
on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Hatch