795
FXUS63 KSGF 161916
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
216 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers across the southeast coming to an end
  this afternoon.

- Dry and becoming unseasonably warm through the rest of the
  work week; hottest day Friday with highs near and above 90.

- Next rain chance this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Missouri is currently situated at the western periphery of a Rex
block over the east coast, with high pressure over the great lakes
and a low over North Carolina associated with potential tropical
cyclone Eight. There is a weak low over the AR/LA border, advecting
some upper level vorticity into our area this afternoon. Tropical
moisture is being slung into the area between the two lows, and we
have experienced some light rain showers all through the overnight
into this afternoon. As the low to the south lifts out, showers will
come to an end across southern Missouri later this afternoon.

Many are experiencing thick cloud cover today, keeping temperatures
largely in the 70s with a few 80s out west where the sun is has been
shining a bit more. Clouds will diminish through the evening as the
lift for the showers ends, but we are looking at some fog and low-
level stratus development in the early morning hours, primarily
affecting the south and east. The HREF is showing widespread
probabilities of 60-70% for visibilities less than 5 miles around
sunrise with more localized areas having an 80%+ for less than 3
miles. Fog is finicky and confidence is difficult to pin down,
so stay tuned for the evening and overnight forecasts that will
have a better handle on the potential as we get into the evening
hours. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for the Tuesday
morning commute.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s in valleys out east and up into
the low 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As we head into Tuesday, upper level ridging begins to build in from
the west. This will warm us up into the mid to high 80s with some in
the west reaching 90. It will be mostly sunny with a few passing
clouds being pushed through by the dissipating tropical system to
the east. The ridge will build over us for the next few days while
two lows in the northwest do some really fun Fujiwara-ing. This
ridge will keep us dry through the rest of the week and also
bring some unseasonably warm temperatures, with the ECMWF EFI
showing forecast highs for Friday and Saturday in the 80th
percentile of the M-climate. Friday will be the warmest, with a
forecast high of 94 in Joplin and 86 in Rolla. (See Climate
section below.)

The spinning low pressure systems in the west will work together to
impact the Ozarks Saturday. Stay up to date with future forecasts
for expected accumulations and impacts as these systems move
closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Light showers are currently scattered from near SGF northeast
along the I-44 corridor and south. These showers and their
associated cloud deck are producing MVFR and IFR ceilings across
southern MO (lower near AR border). They will linger through the
early afternoon and slowly fizzle away. No lightning is
expected. Ceilings will gradually lift and bring VFR conditions
by 0Z (beginning earliest, around 20Z, in the west). Winds are
generally light out of the east-southeast with some isolated
gusts to 15 mph. Winds will diminish further going into the
overnight.

Fog may be a concern for especially BBG tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Record High Temperatures (Joplin):

September 19:
98/1954     Forecast: 93

September 20:
99/1954     Forecast: 94


Record High Minimum Temperatures (Springfield):

September 21:
73/1931     Forecast: 73

September 22:
70/2017     Forecast: 70

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson
CLIMATE...Nelson