542
FXUS63 KSGF 310730
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect across the entire area today through
  Friday. Daily highs in the middle 90s to low 100s. Maximum
  afternoon heat index values around 100 to 105. Minimal
  overnight relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

- Little to no rain chances over the next week, with hot and dry
  conditions amplifying a rapid onset drought across the area.
  Worsening drought conditions may allow for an early onset to
  the Fall fire weather season.

- Increasing confidence in above average temperatures (70-80%
  chance) and dry conditions continuing into mid-September.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Today-Tonight:
An upper-level ridge continues to strengthen over the region
today, with increasing mid-level heights (850mb temperatures of
20 to 24 C). This will correlate to another hot and dry
afternoon, with highs in the middle to upper 90s. A few
locations will reach/exceed 100. Dewpoints remain relatively
"low" in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As a result, maximum
afternoon heat index values peak around 100 to 105 degrees.
Overall, a "dry" heat today with relative humidity values
dipping to around 25 to 35% again as peak mixing occurs in the
afternoon. South- southwest winds this afternoon, with
occasional wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph along and west of Highway
65. This will support some localized areas of fire weather,
particularly with regard to finer fuels such as grass. Despite
this being a drier heat to begin the week, hot is hot. A Heat
Advisory begins this afternoon and will run through the
remainder of the week. Minimal overnight relief tonight, with
lows remaining in the middle to upper 70s across most of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Tuesday-Friday:
The well above normal temperatures and daily heat index values
of 100 to 105+ degrees will be accompanied by minimal overnight
relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s. There is the
potential for record temperatures through this period (see
Climate section). The extent of the extreme heat is well
captured by the NWS HeatRisk product, with widespread Major
(3/4) to Extreme (4/4) Heat Risk over the area on Tuesday
through Thursday. Other days peak into the Major (3/4) category.
This outlines the potential for heat- related impacts, with
increasing concerns as the prolonged heat envelops the entire
area. At this time, it appears the heat wave remains locked in
place through at least Friday. However, ensemble guidance
suggests the heat persists beyond the seven day forecast period,
with WPC and CPC highlighting extreme heat over the region well
into early/mid September. NBM interquartile temperatures
spreads are shrinking and trending towards at least the western
half of the area remaining in extreme heat.

Currently, the highest heat index values of 100 to 105+ degrees
overspread the area Tuesday through Friday. This time period is
when dewpoints are progged to be highest, in the middle to upper
60s. Confidence remains high for heat index values to remain
between 100 to 105, with much lower confidence in exceeding 105.
Any locations that do exceed 105 will generally be confined to
north and west of the Ozark Plateau. Thus, a Heat Advisory
remains the most appropriate product, though a localized
corridor of an Extreme Heat Warning may be warranted if
confidence increases.

This period of extreme heat will be dry with no mentionable
PoPs in the forecast through much of the upcoming week. The
extent and coverage of this heat wave will further amplify
drought conditions over the area, with D1 and D2 now in effect
for portions of southeast KS and southwest MO. CPC continues to
highlight concerns for a rapid onset drought. Additionally, this
could support an early onset of Fall fire weather season.
Continue to monitor trends and observations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Minimal cloud cover, with southerly winds overnight
around 5 to 10 knots. Winds turn a bit more south-southwest on
Monday afternoon, with occasional gusts around 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026


Record High Temperatures In Jeopardy:

August 30:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 103/2000
KVIH: 99/2000

August 31:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 100/2000

September 1:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1953
KUNO: 101/2000

September 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1899
KUNO: 101/2000

September 3:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 100/1897

September 4:
KJLN: 102/1954

September 5:
KSGF: 99/1998
KJLN: 103/1998


Record High Minimum Temperatures In Jeopardy:

August 30:
KSGF: 73/2013
KJLN: 76/1945
KVIH: 75/1951

August 31:
KSGF: 76/2011
KJLN: 80/2011
KVIH: 75/1980

September 1:
KSGF: 77/1922
KJLN: 80/2011
KUNO: 74/1989
KVIH: 76/2011

September 2:
KSGF: 76/1922
KJLN: 77/1961
KUNO: 73/1980
KVIH: 75/1898

September 3:
KSGF: 74/2011
KJLN: 77/1944
KUNO: 72/2023
KVIH: 74/1960

September 4:
KSGF: 75/1913
KJLN: 77/1954
KUNO: 73/2021
KVIH: 74/1990

September 5:
KSGF: 76/1998
KJLN: 77/1985
KUNO: 72/2012
KVIH: 78/1899

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Camden