408
FXUS63 KSGF 020742
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
242 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized frost possible in the eastern Ozarks tonight.

- Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday and
  Monday.

- Additional low end severe thunderstorm risk Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Localized frost possible in the eastern Ozarks tonight:
 - Impacts: Risk to sensitive plants in typical cold spots over
   the eastern Ozarks.
 - Details: Forecast calls for lows in the mid to upper 30s over
   the east along with isolated, patchy frost.
 - Confidence: NBM probability of min temps < 36 F is 30-60% in
   the impacted area. This is a rough proxy for frost
   potential.

Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday and
Monday:
 - Impacts: Low potential for isolated severe storms with 60 mph
   winds and one inch hail.
 - Details: Northern portions of the CWA from west-central Mo
   through central MO may see isolated storms, a couple of which
   may be strong to severe in the afternoon and evening both
   days.
 - Confidence: SPC severe probabilities are 5%, which seems
   reasonable given marginal environment and limited coverage.
 - Meteorological Analysis: Shortwave energy both days will lead
   to similar potentials both days. A roughly 30% chance of
   showers and storms is in the forecast Sunday and Monday
   afternoon and evening. SREF Interquartile CAPE/Shear values
   are 500-1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE with 35-45 kts of deep layer
   shear. This may lead to a couple strong to marginally severe
   storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Additional low end severe thunderstorm risk Tuesday:
 - Impacts: Low risk (< 15% chance) for severe storms on
   Tuesday.
 - Details: SPC does not highlight the area for severe weather,
   but model guidance does show a low end severe risk.
 - Confidence: Low.
 - Meteorological Analysis: NW flow will give way to an upper
   trough and surface cold front moving through the central
   CONUS. This will lead to 50-80% chances for showers and
   storms with a < 15% chance of severe weather. Severe storm
   chances are shown by some of the AI/ML guidance. Timing
   differences may push the threat earlier or later.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus