032
FXUS63 KSGF 060549
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A thunderstorm complex is expected late tonight through Friday
  morning. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, frequent lightning
  and localized flooding are the main hazards. Greatest severe
  threat is southwest of Springfield.

- Flood Watch is in effect for far southeastern Kansas and far
  southern Missouri tonight into Friday.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms will occur through the
  weekend, especially Saturday morning. Localized flooding and
  damaging winds will be a concern.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A few updrafts are trying to develop across portions of
southern Missouri early this evening. There is an unstable air
mass in place but a very dry air mass is in place in the mid
levels which are limiting storm develop across the area up to
this point. There is better moisture in place across northern
Arkansas and some isolated storms have been able to develop
south of the area. For the early evening hours a few showers and
a storm or two will be possible but most locations should
remain dry.

Later this evening into the early overnight hours, after 10 pm,
an unstable air mass will remain in place and a weak cap. Mid
level moisture will start to increase along with the low level
jet and some lift. As a result expect scattered shower and
thunderstorm development to be possible around 10 pm into the
early overnight hours mainly along and east of a Springfield to
Branson Missouri line and south of I-44. Lightning and brief
heavy rainfall will be the main risk but a few of the storms
will be capable of hail up to the size of quarters across far
southern Missouri late this evening into the early overnight
hours.

The attention then turns to the storms across western Kansas.
An MUCAPE gradient is in place across the Kansas and Oklahoma
border into southern Missouri and will remain in place into
Friday morning. MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg will be in
place along and south of the gradient which would support an MCS
following the forward propagating Corfidi Vectors which the
short range models are indicating will be to the east at 30 to
40kt into the area. So, expect the storms to continue to develop
and move east with the line building to the southeast the rest
of this evening into tonight. These storms will start to
approach extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri by 3 to 4 am and should continue to move east across
southern Missouri into Friday morning. There will be the
potential for damaging winds with this line late tonight across
extreme southeastern Kansas and across southern Missouri Friday
morning with damaging winds the main risk, but a few updrafts
could be capable of penny to quarter size hail tonight into
Friday morning. Precipitable water values will be near 1.75"
ahead of this activity so heavy rainfall will also occur with
the storms, and where multiple storms can track over the same
locations there will be the potential for flooding tonight into
Friday, which the current Flood Watch covers well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Considerable uncertainty still exists on the track of an
expected overnight into Friday morning MCS. Thunderstorms are
expected to grow upscale over SW Kansas this evening and track
toward the area. The MUCAPE gradient slopes to the ESE from
there through northern AR and far southwestern MO while Corfidi
Vectors are to the E/ESE. Both of these favors will favor the
MCS tracking over or near the far southwestern and southern CWA,
although uncertainty still exists in exactly where the complex
forms and tracks. Some guidance even brings the MCS across the
northern CWA, but that seems unlikely. Severe potential is
mainly 60mph wind threat over the far southwest, but again
depends on track.

Given the greatest potential being over the south, issued a
Flash Flood Watch roughly along and south of Highway 60 tonight
through Friday morning. Recent rainfall has resulted in
saturated soils. In the watch area, models generally favor 1-3
inches locally up to 5 inches of rain.

Could see some additional isolated to scattered showers and
non-severe storms Friday afternoon evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Friday night into Saturday morning is nearly a copy of the
scenario tonight into Friday morning, but with even less
confidence since it`s farther out in time. The setup and
probabilities again favor the southwestern CWA for both severe
and flooding.

Sunday into next week: The overall flow turns more
northwesterly as an upper level low drops into the northern
plains. While rain chances do decrease, they are not zero
(generally 10-30% Sunday and Monday) as weak shortwave energy
moves down into the area. This would support more of a isolated
to scattered potential versus a prolonged/widespread washout
rainfall. Temps will likely remain near average for early June
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, depending on
clouds/precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Confidence is high that a complex of showers and thunderstorms
will move into the TAF sites this morning and have used a tempo
group for the most likely period. This will reduce ceilings and
vis during this time period. We will also need to watch for some
isolated showers and storms late in the afternoon however
confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds will remain
light and variable this morning with a gradual turn to the west
northwest during the day.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 4 AM CDT early this morning through this
     afternoon for KSZ101.
MO...Flood Watch from 4 AM CDT early this morning through this
     afternoon for MOZ082-088-090>097-101>105.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Burchfield