483
FXUS63 KSGF 231737
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1137 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM today to 6 PM Sunday.
  Expected snowfall is 8-13 inches across the area.

- Uncertainty remains in the potential upper-end amounts
  depending on the system`s exact track and the potential of
  sleet to occur Saturday afternoon near the MO/AR border.

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight through 12 PM Monday.
  Single digit lows (above and below zero) and wind chills below
  -10 F will be likely each morning this weekend. Single digit
  highs possible Saturday.

- Behind the winter storm, high temperatures in the 20s and 30s
  through Thursday along with lows in the single digits to
  teens will extend the time it takes for any snow on the ground
  to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Fire Weather: Today will start out breezy with northeasterly
winds gusting up to 30 mph especially for areas across eastern
KS and far western MO as the low pressure system pushes east.
There will be elevated fire weather conditions today ahead of
our snow storm due to dry air and gusty winds. Minimum relative
humidity values will be in the 20-30% range with 20ft winds
gusting to 15-20 mph. We are just shy of Red Flag Warning
criteria, but burning is still discouraged.

Winds and Temperatures: Northeasterly winds are currently
gusting to 25 mph early this morning across the area with high
clouds overhead. Clouds will begin to increase through the day
and high temperatures will occur first thing this morning. Most
of the area is sitting in the mid to upper 20s and that is
unfortunately most likely going to be the warmest it`ll get
today. Temperatures are expected to drop through the day with
afternoon temperatures forecast to be in the teens with wind
chills in the single digits. Winds start to diminish later this
evening once the cold front has completely moved through.

Winter Weather: A Cold Weather Advisory is still in effect for
the entire area from 12AM Saturday to 12PM Monday for minimum
wind chills around -10 to -20F each morning. The Winter Storm
Warning is also still in effect for 6PM tonight to 6PM Sunday
with 8 to 13 inches of snow expected across the area with the
higher totals occurring over southern MO.

We are close enough to the start time with this event for high-
res models to start to paint a better picture of how this storm
will all unfold. These models have started to pick up on some
snow banding especially near the MO/AR border. Snowfall totals
continue to increase in those areas as we try to nail down where
these bands of snow will set up. There are a couple of wrinkles
in the forecast as far as start time for the snow and precipitation
types. Latest model soundings show quite a bit of dry air over
us this evening and that`ll be tough for snow to overcome in the
beginning until we completely wet-bulb. This may push back start
times tonight to be a few hours after the start time of the
Winter Storm Warning. We have decided to leave the start time
the same for this forecast package due to the fact that a few
models show the possibility of moisture overcoming the dry air
and snow starting in our KS counties around 9PM tonight. We
want to leave a bit of wiggle room in case the storm begins to
creep in before midnight even though most of the impactful snow
will occur overnight Friday into Saturday. The timing of the
heavier snow falling overnight will be great for snowfall
accumulations.

Snowfall is expected to linger into the late morning hours on
Saturday and start to taper off by the early afternoon. There
appears to still be a lull in between the two rounds of snow on
Saturday afternoon. Though, the lull may not mean that everyone
will remain dry during this break in preicp. Model soundings
have still shown a signal for a brief period of sleet occurring
Saturday afternoon for areas mostly south of I-44. There are a
few factors in play here that will determine if that area sees
mixed precip on Saturday. First, the warm nose has to be present
for this to occur, there has to be a brief break in the cloud
ice, and the air has to be dry, but not too dry otherwise no
precip will make it to the surface. There is a chance that this
precip could fall as freezing drizzle instead, either way, the
precip would be impactful and will cause hazardous road
conditions. Any sleet that does fall, will impact snowfall
amounts as well and will lower them just slightly. There`s only
a few models showing sleet occurring but it`s still worth
mentioning due to the impacts it could have on anyone traveling.
The second round of moderate to heavy snow moves in late
Saturday into Sunday morning. Snow will exit west to east Sunday
afternoon.

Probabilistic snowfall amounts:
>= 6": 80-90%
>= 8": 60-80%
>= 12": 30-40%

Unusual combined snow/cold threat considerations:
Special consideration should be given to both cold and snow
individually, but also when combined. If individuals become
stranded during the event, they will be exposed to dangerously
cold conditions. We are messaging: "Motorists should avoid
traveling but will need to plan for cold weather survival in the
event they become stranded."

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Snow will linger for the beginning of next week as cold
temperatures stick around through the weekend. Daytime highs
only reach the teens across the area with Monday and Tuesday
creeping into the 20s and 30s. Then, another shot of cold air
arrives on Thursday.

Wind Chills: As previously mentioned, -10 to -20F wind chills
will occur each morning from Saturday through Monday. These
temperatures have the potential to get even colder due to the
snowpack on the ground. Monday morning will be the coldest with
widespread wind chill values in the -15 to -20 range which may
warrant an Extreme Cold Watch that gets converted to an Extreme
Cold Warning, if needed. We definitely can`t rule out issuing
that product especially with snow on the ground causing our
temperatures to stay even cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions at the start of the TAF period with broken to
overcast mid-level clouds over much of the region. Elevated
northeast winds will be sustained between 12 to 20 kt with gusts
to 25 kt through the afternoon.

Snow will begin to move into southern Missouri after 03Z this
evening. There may be a brief period early Saturday morning
where blowing snow significantly reduces visibility across
extreme southwest Missouri. Snow looks to continue across
southern Missouri through the end of the TAF period. MVFR to IFR
ceilings will accompany this snow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for KSZ073-097-101.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Didio