198
FXUS63 KSGF 312031
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
331 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish by early
  evening. A few strong storm may be possible across portions
  of far southern Missouri this afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures will occur into this weekend.
  Temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below climatological normals are
  forecast through this period.

- There is a signal for the return of above-average temperatures
  again next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Surface pattern this afternoon was highlighted by high pressure over
the northern Plains into the Great Lakes filling in behind the cold
front that moved through the region overnight into southern AR to
along the Red River with an inverted trough extending along I-44 in
OK into southeast KS. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible...mainly south of I-44...into the late afternoon with
support from a weak shortwave aloft.

With the wind shift to the northeast...cold air advection along
with a bands of clouds has kept temperatures around 80 into the
early afternoon.

Aloft a north to south orientated upper ridge extended from the
desert southwest up the Rockies and closed lows/troughs over
the British Columbia coast and another exiting the eastern
Canada.

Despite upper heights rising...temperatures on Friday will be a
welcome reprieve from the recent hot weather as H8 temperatures drop
from around 20 degrees C today to 14-16 degrees Saturday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Shortwave energy to weaken the northern section of the upper ridge
Sunday...with a bit more stronger wave reaching the Ozarks late
Monday into Tuesday.  As the cold front that moved through the
region last night will lay up across the Gulf into early next week
limiting the return flow of rich moist air and associated
instability ahead of this wave.

The Gulf will open by midweek as waves of energy continue to
round the southwest ridge and move into the central Plains
leading to additional lower end convective chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Banded MVFR ceilings to move through the forecast area into the
early evening...as will scattered showers and thunderstorms with
the best chance for this convection being along and south of
I-44 to the Arkansas border.

KBBG and areas along the Arkansas border may see ceilings lower
toward a 1000ft overnight improving after sunrise Friday...ceilings
to the north will improve this evening with much of the area
VFR by 06z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels