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AGUS76 KRSA 061542
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
745 AM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS A LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...
...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NRN CA/NV TONIGHT THROUGH THURS AS A
TROUGH DIGS IN BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE AM - MON AM)...

An upper low continues to travel south offshore of CA this morning
now southwest of Point Conception. The system has retreated further
away from the coast since yesterday allowing precip to diminish into
more isolated showers. Precip came in overnight heavier than
expected across some of the central coast mountains as models
underestimated the intensity. Observations show 1-2.50" on the
higher end over the Big Sur coast and just under an inch over the
Santa Cruz mountains in the last 12 hours. Current radar shows
additional showers rotating into the central coast but much lighter
and more widely scattered than yesterday. The main event is now
over, precip wise, with lingering showers along the coast the rest
of today as the low continues to move to the south offshore.
Tonight, the low will change trajectories and head eastward towards
Baja passing through south of the CA border tomorrow morning. Some
showers along far southern CA possible as the low moves through to
the south.

Meanwhile up north, a shortwave will approach the PacNW sending
additional scattered showers into nrn CA/NV starting tonight. The
trough will arrive tomorrow morning swinging through the PacNW while
digging to the south into CA the rest of the day dropping showers.
The trough will begin to move inland across CA and into NV late
Wednesday into Thursday. The back edge of the system will exit CA
about Thursday afternoon/evening allowing shower activity to
diminish. Behind the trough, high pressure will build in returning
dry conditions to the region through the period, aside from
potential drizzle associated with any developing valley fog. The det
GFS/ECMWF show a shortwave over the PacNW on Sunday which may bring
some showers to the northern border, but for now most of the
ensembles favor continued drying.

The only QPF in the forecast is for the near term (through 12z
Friday). The morning QPF was a blend of WPC guidance and the NBM
generally. Increased the amounts over Big Sur a bit given recent
observations. QPF through 12z Fri: 0.25-0.75" north coast (up to 1"
Smith Basin), 1-2.25" srn OR Cascades, 0.10-0.50" most of the rest
of nrn CA/Big Sur, 0.10-0.30" San Diego area, and generally 0.10" or
less along the rest of the CA coast.

Freezing levels 6-8 kft across the Sierra through Weds morning
lowering to 3.5-6.5 kft north of I-80 in the afternoon further
dropping to 3-4.5 kft Thursday. Most of the state will be below 5.5
kft at that point before levels rebound west to east into Friday as
high pressure returns.


Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated.
Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.

QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



AS

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