636
FXUS61 KRNK 060622
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
222 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will approach from the west today and stall over the
region through the weekend. This will result in unsettled
weather into early next week with a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms. A stronger front will arrive during the middle of
next week, followed by a drier airmass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Storms will be possible this afternoon/evening and some could
be strong to severe.

2) Fog this morning. Fog is expected to develop again tonight.

Fog has developed this morning and could be dense in across the
mountains. Will see it dissipate an hour or so after daybreak,
giving way to party cloudy skies. Despite some lingering cloud
cover, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s by
the afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon/evening, but coverage appears to be rather limited at
this time. With lack of forcing, most storms likely to be
terrain drive, developing across the mountains and shifting east
into the Piedmont by the evening. Strong surface heating with
dew points in the low to mid 60s should result in SBCAPE
exceeding 1000 J/kg. However, lack of shear should prevent
widespread organized convection. A few storms could produce
localized strong gusts and perhaps some small hail.

More organized convection appears to develop across Kentucky
this afternoon and will move east through late evening. This
could approach our region later tonight, albeit in a weakened
state due to less than favorable instability with loss of
daytime heating. Still could result in a few areas of thunder
and isolated strong wind gusts as it arrives late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

Active pattern expected through the fcst period as a series of upper
impulses look to traverse eastward across the mainly zonal flow
aloft. This combined with marginal deep layer shear near 30 kts and
diurnally enhanced CAPE near 1000 J/kg should allow for rounds of
scattered convection with possible more organized storm modes of
multicells or MCSs. Some strong to isolated severe storms will be
possible with damaging winds as the main threat. SPC does have most
of the area with a Marginal Risk on Saturday and a Slight Risk in
the SW CWA and wouldn`t be surprised if a portion of the area was
outlooked in future updates for Sunday. QPF looks manageable and
with mainly dry antecedent conditions the overall flooding threat
looks quite low to very isolated. Progged PWATs are pretty high
though near 1.75 inches so any training storms could bring the
isolated threat from hydrometeor loading.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Precipitation chances continue daily.

While in the wake of an upper wave from Sunday, another axis of
moisture and boundary looks to stall near the NW for Monday so have
the greater chance pops mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Stronger dynamics look to be in play however for late Monday
overnight into Tuesday as a higher amplitude shortwave swings in
from the TN Valley and pushes the front SEWD. Will need to monitor
updates for any potential of stronger more organized storm potential
with this feature. For Wednesday some guidance is in pretty good
consensus with how far south the boundary and moisture extends
behind the disturbance. For now have chance pops for development
across the southern majority and slight pops north.

Temps generally a bit above climo with highs in the 70s for the
mountains and low to mid 80s for the Piedmont. Warmest day looks to
be Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Friday...

Fog and low clouds especially where it rained yesterday
afternoon, namely LWB/BLF, but even DAN could sink to IFR
cigs/vsbys by daybreak.

Any sub-VFR to lift to VFR by 13-14z. Showers/storms will be
concentrated more over the mountains this afternoon, but could
spill over east into the Piedmont by this evening. Overall
winds stay under 5kts most of the period.

Fog again tonight, especially across the mountains.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday could
bring periods of sub-vfr, along with patchy valley fog each
morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG