984
FXUS61 KRNK 092345
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
745 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Clouds wane tonight then reform.

QPF amounts look quite low for the Sunday/Monday system and the
midweek system.

Patchy frost in the mountains Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A couple of systems to bring shower chances but rainfall
amounts are limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cumulus field from the day dissipates tonight, then reforms
again Sunday. In the near term, looking at fair weather for the
overnight and comfortable temperatures.

A front arrives Sunday into Monday from the west/northwest.
Since this system is mainly northern stream dominated and lacks
ample flow from the Gulf, am not expecting a lot of rainfall
from it. A few areas may get a quarter inch, but most will be
around a tenth of an inch or less, if at all. Best chances
should be north of U.S. 460 (north of Blacksburg/Roanoke).

Another shot of cooler air arrives Monday night with clearing
skies and lightening winds. Temps drop into the mid to upper 30s
in the mountains, and patchy frost appears likely, but still
will depend on how fast the winds weaken as the high will be
over the central Appalachians/upper Ohio Valley Tuesday morning.

Next front looks to bring another chance for scattered
showers/storms Wednesday. Temperatures will run close to normal
through Friday then warm above normal by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Anticipating widespread VFR. No aviation hazards through the
24hour valid TAF ending 00Z Monday (8PM Sunday).

Forecast confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A front arrives late Sunday night, and will bring showers/few
storms to the area, and potential sub-VFR flight conditions
through Monday. However, rain looks to be light. Winds increase
again late Monday behind the front, gusting to around 20 knots.
High pressure then builds back into the area late Monday, with
VFR prevailing through Tuesday. Another system brings showers
into the area for Wednesday, then dry Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/SH/WP
AVIATION...PM