180
FXUS61 KRNK 261523
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1023 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued Special Weather Statement for our western counties where
upslope snow ongoing this morning.

An Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory has been
issued for dangerously cold wind chills expected tonight.
Widespread below zero wind chills are likely, with some as low
as 20 below across the highest elevations.

Cold temperatures continue throughout this week and into the
weekend. Friday and Saturday could potentially bring headline-
worthy cold for the region again.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Accumulating snow for the western slopes today.

2) Dangerously cold weather tonight through Tuesday morning.

3) Frigid conditions and chances of mountain snow showers will
persist through this week with the lowest wind chills by
Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Additional snow for the western slopes today.

Getting reports of accumulating new snow along the western
slopes of the Appalachians with 1.6" in Bluefield, WV, and
upwards of 6" at Beech Mtn Ski Resort at 5500 feet elevation
where mountain top is within the cloud base. Looking at webcams,
the vsby still under 1SM for our western counties with CAMs
above 4000 feet within the cloud base. This suggests vsbys at
these higher elevations are 1/2SM or less with moderate
accumulating snow. Will be hard to tell what the true
accumulation is per wind blowing 15 to 25 mph, but anything that
does fall will be at a 20:1 ratio per the bitter cold
airmass...and blowing around at that. As such have used SPS as
vehicle to best cover what is going on... not enough coverage at
the lower elevations to issue wholesale county based headlines.
Think snow will continue at these higher elevations as long as
there is cloud cover...the entire cloud experiencing dendritic
growth due to cloud temps of -12 deg C or colder. Winds are
forecast to turn more westerly by tonight, and with dry air
advection, clouds should dissipate. The 00Z HREF maintains cloud
cover along the western slopes until sunset, then thins it out
by midnight before going completely clear...so would think at
the very least that flurries to linger at these higher
elevations until then.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold weather tonight through
Tuesday morning.

Arctic air will move into the region this morning. Temperatures
this morning will likely be the highs for the day, dropping
throughout the day. Gusty northwest winds will develop by late
morning.

By tonight, the winds reduce slightly, but still gust to 20+
mph through the night. Lows will be bitterly cold, perhaps the
coldest in years, as snow pack on the ground combined with clear
skies will allow for radiational cooling to be maximized. Lows
will be in the low single digits across the Piedmont, with below
zero temperatures possible anywhere west of the Blue Ridge.
These temperatures combined with the winds will cause wind
chills to be around zero in the NC Piedmont, and below zero
elsewhere. Along/west of the Blue Ridge will have wind chills of
-10 to -20 degrees. Any prolonged exposure to the cold will lead
 to frostbite and could be life- threatening.

Have issued Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories
for a large portion of the region, going into effect 6PM this
evening. Temperatures will be slow to warm on Tuesday, but could
rise just above freezing for areas east of the mountains for a
few hours in the afternoon, but higher elevations will remain
solidly below freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Frigid conditions and chances of mountain snow
showers will persist through this week with the lowest wind
chills by Saturday morning.

The Arctic air will linger throughout the remainder of this week as
a broad upper level trough remains in place over the eastern United
States. A shortwave trough spiraling around the broader trough
should move over the Appalachian Mountains with the first arriving
around Wednesday. Mountain snow showers should accompany the first
trough during Tuesday night through Wednesday night as temperatures
drop towards the single digits. The higher elevations will likely
see wind chill values fall below zero. With existing snow and ice
cover still on the ground, overall temperatures were reduced a
couple degrees from the middle of the guidance envelope.

By Friday night, a second and more potent shortwave trough will
approach from the northwest. More frigid air should accompany this
trough with the potential for temperatures to drop below zero in
southeast West Virginia and the Alleghany Highlands of Virginia. It
should be noted that some models are depicting a low pressure system
developing off the North Carolina coast on Saturday. While some
upslope moisture could trigger mountain snow showers during this
time, there is the possibility of moisture from the coastal system
spreading northwestward towards the Virginia and North Carolina
Piedmont. This system will be monitored for future trends during the
next day or two as it could impact any possible snowfall amounts for
the Blue Ridge and east by the end of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions continue to gradually improve this morning with many
sites now returning to VFR east of Appalachians. Ongoing
upslope snow showers across the mountains will continue to
impact LWB/BLF with periods of IFR. This snow should come to an
end toward sunset, with at least MVFR to ocnl IFR conditions
lingering until then in addition to partial ridge obscurations.

Outside of the mountains, should see clearing skies and VFR
through the valid TAF period.

Winds will increase today from the northwest. Gusts from
20-30kts will be likely throughout much of the day, relaxing
some after sunset.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A couple weak systems may bring light snow/stratus to the
mountains most days this week, but the showers will generally
be north of BLF and LWB. Winds remain elevated into Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for VAZ015-018>020-022>024.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for VAZ007-009>014-016-017-032>035-043>047-058-
     059.
NC...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for NCZ001-018.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for NCZ002>006-019-020.
WV...Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for WVZ043-044-507-508.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for WVZ042.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/PM/PW
AVIATION...BMG