Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
811 FXUS61 KRNK 310639 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 239 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A small chance of precipitation has been added to areas from the Alleghany Highlands to the Central Piedmont of Virginia for this afternoon. In spite of high pressure systems at the low and mid levels, a strong wave of vorticity is forecast to pass through and may trigger some thunderstorms. These storms will heavily struggle to form and lift so the convection outlook will be a tug of war of which atmospheric forces are stronger. Aviation Forecast Discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warming Trend into the Week. 2) Next best chance of precipitation by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming Trend into the Week. A mid-level ridge will progress slowly eastward this week, with its center possibly over the southern Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. The increased heights will support a continual warming trend with high temperatures potentially 10 to 20 degrees above normal than seasonal averages. Temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s with parts of the Piedmont reaching 100 degrees by Thursday afternoon. This, combined with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s, will result in some high heat indices. The maximum heat index east of the Blue Ridge could get into the lower 100s. If confidence increases of these values reaching 105 degrees or higher, Heat Advisories will be needed. Even if this criteria is not reached, these are very hot temperatures for September standards and the public is encouraged to stay cool and hydrated to avoid any heat related illnesses. A cold front may arrive by this weekend to lower some of the temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2: Next best chance of precipitation by Friday. The mid-level ridge over the Mid-Atlantic will degrade and possibly split in two by this weekend. The synoptic set up across CONUS will then be a strong ridge over the Great Plains to our west and a potent mid-level low to the northeast in New England and Canada. This will bring northwesterly flow to the Mid-Atlantic and permit the passage of any shortwaves traveling in between the ridge and trough. One of these disturbances may pass through by Friday and supply a widespread chance of precipitation. The instability will likely be present with warm and humid conditions persisting, but the better wind shear looks to be to our north. Lapse rates as well look to be underwhelming and ranging between 5.5-6.0 C/km. Some machine learning models still highlight this area for severe weather later in the week but much of the convection and its organization will be based on how the upper air pattern manifests. If the northwesterly flow pushes a little southward and allow for better wind shear and cooler temperatures aloft, then confidence would increase for severe weather potential. Until then, this will be a weather setup to observe in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions likely for all airports on Monday outside of early morning fog at KLWB and KBCB. Fog has already started in Lewisburg and will likely persist until sunrise. Winds will be calm to light for the rest of the night and pick up again later this afternoon from the northwest at around 5-10 knots. Some scattered thunderstorms are possible in the region late this afternoon but precipitation chances are very low due to a surface high pressure and a mid-level ridge moving in from the west. If any of these storms manage to pop up at a terminal, visibilities may be briefly lowered due to the rainfall associated with it. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR is the expected dominant condition for all terminals outside of additional early morning fog for the usual airports. The next best chance of precipitation arrives later in the week, especially on Friday and Saturday. A mid-level storm system and a cold front may pass through and provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms to all terminals. Winds are still expected to be light and from the northwest outside of thunderstorm activity. The cold front is currently not expected to increase wind gusts significantly when it crosses. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CG AVIATION...CG