579
FXUS61 KRLX 060701
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
301 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today, some may
contain damaging wind and large hail. Heavy rain will be
possible with any convection today and tonight. Active weather
persists into the weekend as the front stalls over the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Key Points:

* Marginal threat for severe hail and winds with thunderstorms this
  afternoon.

* Slow moving, efficient convection may yield high water issues,
  especially tonight into Saturday morning

Weak surface low pressure riding along a stalled frontal zone across
the Middle Ohio Valley coupled with weak H850 mass convergence at
this hour continues to support elevated showers and thunderstorms.
Expect these to continue to progress to the east following a more or
less west to east oriented ribbon of instability through this
morning, likely becoming surface based across northern WV early this
afternoon with additional diurnally forced convection blossoming as
surface parcels become uncapped. We do have quite a range of model
solutions regarding phasing of northern/southern stream jet energy
during the day today with WRF camp generally the aggressive and RAP
least aggressive in phasing early and spreading ascent across the
area in time to enhanced the aforementioned showers and
thunderstorms. The later solutions would yield higher instability co-
located with stronger deep layer shear and a higher potential for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail
(although wet bulb zero values near 12kft likely limit this) this
afternoon. The faster solutions would yield a period of subsidence
or at least the lack of broad ascent heading into peak heating,
especially across our west where we could remain storm free during
the late afternoon. The slower solutions would yield weaker flow
through the column resulting in slower storm motions and more narrow
CAPE profiles favorable for efficient rainfall production yielding a
bit better chances for some water issues, although heavier rainfall
footprints during the daylight hours are not expected to
significantly overlap the heavier rainfall footprints from last
night.

Otherwise, for areas that don`t see convection this morning, except
highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The potentially more significant water concerns look to arrive
overnight as slow moving frontal boundary lays out west to east
across area with at least some models putting it nearly directly
over a heavier rainfall footprint from last night across the
Mountain Lakes. Significant training appears possible along this
boundary during the late overnight into Saturday morning, but given
the model spread don`t have a ton of confidence in placement. Plan
to take a hard look at the 06Z suite as it comes in for a potential
flood watch before I leave this morning, but otherwise will defer to
the day shift for any highlights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

Models show a cold front stalling over the region on Saturday.
Soundings remain unstable, so numerous showers and thunderstorms
can be expected. With some mid level dry air and most unstable
CAPES in the 1500 to 2500 range, could see some storms produce
damaging wind gusts. Some large hail is also possible with a
freezing level around 13K feet. With a cold front providing a
focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms, there is some
concern that flash flooding could become an issue.

Models show an upper level short wave moving across the area
for Sunday. This will once again enhance the chances for showers
and thunderstorms. The setup for severe weather is similar to
Saturday, with damaging winds and large hail possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

An upper level trough moves into the region Monday into
Tuesday. This will provide additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms, but will also push a cold front through the area.
This will lead to better chances of drier weather for Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Some holes in mid-level sky cover coupled with precipitation from
last night may yield some patchy fog this morning, especially near
BKW/EKN.

Isolated to scattered convection across the Middle Ohio Valley
approaches PKB this morning. Coverage is expected to increase with
heating/weak ascent moving in late morning/early afternoon and have
PROB30 or TEMPO for TSRA for most terminals. Storms will be fairly
slow moving and if one gets over a terminal it may linger for a half
hour or more within 5 miles.

Should see a relative lull in activity across the west this
afternoon as weak subsidence spreads into the region. Activity
should increase again with approach of a very slow moving cold front
overnight tonight, with locally very heavy rain possible along a
west to east axis - would expect this to be generally in a line
parallel +/- 30nm of the Metro Valley. This could yield a prolonged
period of thunder at the fields coupled with very heavy rainfall,
confidence in placement is not high however.

Winds generally westerly 5-10KT except gusty and erratic near
convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog possible at BKW/EKN this morning. Convective
coverage will vary, will need to address with additional TEMPOs
through the day.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 06/06/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JP