902
FXUS61 KRLX 191755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
155 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system exits northeast tonight, allowing a few
rain showers or storms to develop this afternoon. Dry and mostly
quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure takes control, providing mostly dry
weather conditions tonight and Friday. Under mostly clear skies
and near calm flow, expect areas of dense fog developing
overnight, mainly over the mountains valleys, and areas that
receive rainfall recently. Any fog will dissipate by 8 AM Friday
morning.

Showers and thunderstorms could develop over the higher terrain,
triggered by afternoon heating on Friday. Some showers or storms
could spread into the lowlands, but rainfall accumulations are not
expected to be significant.

Clear skies and near calm flow will allow for radiational cooling
and a drop in temperatures, generally in the 50s. A warming trend
will continue Friday with lowland temperatures reaching the lower
90, ranging into the lower 80s central mountains, and into the upper
60s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 PM Thursday...

The pattern to start this weekend will feature a weakening upper-
level low across northern New England, a ridge over the Ohio Valley,
and another low pressure system developing in the Rockies.
Saturday should be dry for the most part, but there is a small
chance of a few afternoon pop- up showers over the West Virginia
higher elevations with weak shortwave energy passing through
the ridge. We only give this a 20-30% chance of occurring. The
summer- like heat will be back in full force with highs expected
to reach the lower 90s across the lowlands. The more
comfortable spots will be in the higher mountain ridges, where
afternoon temperatures will be in the 70s-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1208 PM Thursday...

A warm front will pass through the area Sunday into Monday as the
aforementioned low pressure system, which developed over the Rockies
Saturday, tracks eastward. Models are generally dry over our area
for Sunday, with rain chances returning Monday as a stronger mid-
level wave of energy from the aforementioned low approaches
from the northwest. Rain chances will continue into Tuesday as
a cold front approaches from the west. Models begin to diverge
from Wednesday onward, but we opted to forecast near central
guidance, which suggests at least some chances of rain
Wednesday and Thursday next week. After starting the week
unseasonably hot across the lowlands, temperatures may trend a
few degrees below average for mid-to-late week with a potential
upper- level low somewhere over the East. Plenty of uncertainty
in the long-term forecast, so our confidence remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

Weak convection, of a popcorn variety, will develop this
afternoon across the area, gradually dissipating by sunset.
Uncertain whether showers or storms could hit directly a
terminal. Therefore, coded VCTS and VCSH for now.

Once the convection subsides this evening, VFR conditions will
return for the first half of tonight. Mostly clear skies and
calm flow will allow for IFR/LIFR dense fog development mainly
along river valleys. Terminals most likely to be affected will
be EKN, PKB and CRW roughly from 07z to 12Z. Any fog or low
stratus will quickly dissipate after 13Z Friday morning leading
to widespread VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extend of dense fog may vary
from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...

Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ