740
FXUS61 KRLX 312133
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
533 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers/storms are possible into tonight as a cold
front gradually moves through, providing much cooler and drier
conditions on Friday and for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 530 PM Thursday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across
the forecast area this evening as a cold front progresses
slowly southeastward through the area. Activity is mainly
southeast of the Ohio River at this point, and should become
generally confined to locations in/near the higher terrain by
late this evening, with a general reduction in coverage by then.
Gusty winds are possible with any stronger storms. The more
concerning hazard is locally heavy rain given a continued very
moist atmosphere in advance of the front (1.91" PW observed on
the 12Z RNK RAOB). Although on the isolated side, rates of
1-2"/hr are possible given any training of showers/storms, which
could translate into isolated instances of flash flooding
through the evening, especially if it were to occur in locations
that had heavy rain yesterday evening. Low stratus develops
overnight, along with some areas of fog. PoPs have been updated
through this evening to represent the latest trends. The rest of
the forecast remains on track.

As of 131 PM Thursday...

A cold front will meander over the area through tonight. Thunderstorm
activity will spread east across the area through this evening.
Showers may continue mainly along the higher elevations this
evening, waning down during the early overnight hours. Guidance
suggests plenty of low status development behind the front
tonight. Areas of dense fog will also develop overnight as well.

High pressure builds behind the front, providing mostly dry
conditions for Friday. Showers or storms may develop mainly
along the eastern mountains during this time period.
Temperatures will be below normals for once, barely getting to
the 80 degree mark Friday.

Drier weather conditions are anticipated Friday night into the
weekend as the high pressure takes control. Temperatures climbing
slightly above normal by beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Drier weather conditions are anticipated Friday night into the
weekend as the high pressure takes control. Temperatures may
reach the lower 80s on Saturday, climbing slightly above normal
Sunday onward.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

High pressure remains in control for Sunday and Monday providing dry
weather conditions. Expect seasonal temperatures, generally in the
low to mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 60s
northeast mountains.

Precipitation returns to the area Tuesday and Wednesday, as a
weak surface low crosses from west to east. This system will
allow for afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 80s.
However, the heat returns by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, associated with a passing cold
front, will continue moving east, affecting PKB, CKB, HTS and CRW
early this afternoon. Terminals such as BKW and EKN could see
periods of IFR conditions under convection through or perhaps
beyond this evening.

Guidance suggests abundant low level stratus and/or fog should
develop once again overnight across most terminals. These
weather conditions will produce IFR/LIFR restrictions roughly
from 05Z through 13-14Z Friday morning. Ceilings will become
MVFR with periods of IFR across most sites on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, extent, and intensity of showers and
storms may vary from forecast. Timing, extent and density of fog
overnight into Friday morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    L    M    H    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with showers/storms Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ