Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
224
FXUS61 KRLX 242352
AFDRLX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
652 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold weather advisories were canceled earlier this morning as
temperatures and wind chills risen above criteria levels.
The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 AM Monday.
Forecast snow amounts have decreased while ice accumulations have
increased once again across the southern sections. This is in
response of warm air aloft switching precipitation from snow to
rain, freezing rain and sleet over these areas. However, snow and
wintry mix precipitation still within warning criteria. Despite
shifting precipitation totals, moderate to major travel and
infrastructure impacts are still expected to occur.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. The Cold Weather Advisory in northern WV and southeast OH was
allowed to expire at 10 AM.
2. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect now though 7 AM Monday.
A major winter storm is still expected to produce snow, sleet, and
freezing rain this afternoon into Monday. Expect widespread impacts
to travel and infrastructure due to snow and ice accumulations.
3. Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chill values return Monday
night into Tuesday. Extreme cold headlines may be required.
4. Weak system and front may bring additional light snow to the area
Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temperatures and wind chills across northern WV and southeast OH
have risen above advisory criteria. However, it will remain cold
with lows tonight ranging from the teens into the single digits.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
As a winter storm commences this afternoon and evening, the onset of
precipitation may fall as light snow. Then, strong southwest flow
aloft brings strong WAA, switching precipitation into a mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain mainly in the southeast half of the
forecast area, while snow continues to the northwest.
Stronger WAA occurs tonight into Sunday afternoon, transitioning
precipitation to plain rain across extreme southwest VA, central
and southern WV. Although these areas may receive rain, freezing
rain will persist in typical cold spots. Then, strong CAA takes
place Sunday night behind a cold front, switching all precipitation
back to snow Sunday night into Monday morning.
Chances of seeing 4 inches of snow or more reach 100 percent across
SE OH and northern WV, ranging from 60 to 70 percent across the
southern coalfields. Chances of greater than 6 inches of snow range
from 95 percent across SE OH, extreme northern WV, and the WV
northeast mountains. Chances for seeing greater than 8 inches range
from 77 percent across northern SE OH and the northeast WV higher
elevations.
The probability of ice accumulations greater than 0.25 inches runs
65 to 80 percent across southwest VA, extending north along the
central and northern mountains, and tapering to 17 percent at the
Charleston Metropolitan area. The probability of seeing 0.50 inches
of ice is 40 percent and continues over southwest VA and extreme
southwest WV.
Therefore, the Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 7 AM
Monday. Although precipitation should diminish in coverage on
Monday, upslope snow could persist along the mountains into the
night.
In addition, as warm air transitions precipitation to plain
rain across southwest VA and southern WV, accumulations have
increased to near 2 inches. This rainfall amounts may produce
raises of streams and creeks across these areas by Sunday night
into Monday morning. This poses a low threat for minor flooding
during this period.
While QPF remains the same, snow amounts have once again decreased,
and ice amounts have increased over most of the area. Regardless
of shifting precipitation amounts, this system is still expected
to cause widespread power outages and moderate to major impacts
to travel and infrastructure.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
In the wake of a weekend winter storm, strong CAA takes place
with H850 temperatures reaching the minus 15 celsius. This cold
air, combined with clearing skies expected Monday night and
Tuesday, will likely produce temperatures around zero across the
lowlands, and even colder across the northeast mountains.
Pressure gradient remains tight behind the storm producing
strong gusty winds Monday. These winds and temperatures could
produce wind chill values around 10 below zero across the
lowlands, ranging to around 20 below zero across the northeast
mountains. Therefore, Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather
Advisories may be required Monday night into Tuesday morning.
We will not see temperatures rise above freezing through next week
and possibly not until sometime the following week. Overnight lows
will be in the single digits and even below zero at times each
night. This could be a serious situation for folks that experience
prolonged power outages due to the winter storm this weekend. This
will also cause rivers, creeks and streams to freeze up posing the
potential for water outages for those communities that draw water
from these water bodies. Please plan accordingly.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A clipper system and cold front provide another opportunity for
light snow accumulations, particularly in and near the mountains,
Wednesday into Thursday. The arrival of this system is also expected
to bolster the cold air mass already entrenched over the region
through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions are rapidly deteriorating across the area this
evening as snow overspreads the area. Mostly MVFR is being
reported where flakes are flying, but IFR and lower will move in
as heavier snow arrives later tonight. IFR and LIFR CIGs and VIS
will then persist through Sunday morning. SN will be moderate to
heavy at times tonight.
PL will mix in early Sunday morning at BKW (around ~06z) before
a change over to all FZRA occurs. CRW and HTS will see this
trend too, but offset by about 2 to 3 hours most likely(~09-10z
for PL, ~12z for FZRA). EKN and CKB may see this trend occur,
but later in the morning or early afternoon. PKB will most
likely remain all SN.
IFR and lower continues after ~00z Monday with a change back to
all snow as temperatures plummet. This snow may be moderate to
heavy at times. Snow squalls may be possible on Monday.
Winds will be light and NE shifting SE across the lowland sites
tonight. The mountain sites can expect SE`rly winds with gusts
between 15 and 20 knots at times. LLWS of 40-50 knots may be
possible at BKW and EKN tomorrow morning with pressure gradient
tightening overhead.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of snow and change over to
freezing rain, sleet, and rain may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EST 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR and lower flight conditions are expected to
occur as a winter storm brings snow, sleet, and freezing rain to
the area through Monday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ARJ
AVIATION...LTC