312
FXUS65 KRIW 060359
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
959 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through
  tonight. Unsettled weather continues Friday afternoon with
  another round of isolated showers and storms.

- A warming trend begins for the weekend through much of next
  week with highs likely returning to the 80s to even low 90s.

- A disturbance brings chances for showers and thunderstorms by
  the middle of next week with the potential for some summer
  heat to follow behind.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Showers that moved across central WY this morning have begun to
dissipate and gradually shift east. Satellite imagery is showing
cloud cover starting to slowly break apart with some sun peaking
through over parts of central WY. The breaks in cloud cover should
allow for temperatures to warm somewhat but highs are still expected
to be below normal with many seeing highs in the 60s. Showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and
evening. The best chances looks to be across higher elevations of
northern and central WY.

The remainder of the forecast looks to be mostly unchanged with a
shortwave bringing another round of showers late this evening
through Friday morning. A ridge is expected to build in over the
weekend bringing with it warmer and mostly drier conditions. While
things will be drier there will be a small chance for some showers
over the weekend. Temperatures will warm with highs reaching the
upper 70s to low 80s. Warming continues into the start of next week
with highs getting into the mid to upper 80s and possibly the low
90s. Long range models indicate a disturbance moving in by the
middle of next week, which may bring widespread chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Models also indicate warmer temperatures moving
in behind this disturbance. CPC outlooks for mid June show much of
the region having a 50-60% chance of seeing above normal
temperatures. However, this is still a good ways out so there
remains plenty of uncertainty and time for this to change.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The pattern from yesterday continues into today, with showers and
thunderstorms moving across the state. Showers, and the occasional
storm, are currently tracking eastwards through portions of central
Wyoming. This activity continues through the morning, and should be
out the area by around noon. Like yesterday, attention then turns to
the afternoon as convection develops across the state. Most of the
activity should remain over mountains and nearby lower elevations.
Another shortwave enters the region this evening, increasing rain
chances again, similar to what is going on this morning. These
showers continue through Friday morning.

The shortwave may keep a few showers going through Friday, though
models are indicating the better moisture moving out of the area a
little earlier than previous runs. The mountains will be the main
influence for convective development though late Friday morning and
afternoon, and with lack of moisture, not expecting too many showers
or storms to develop. Any that do will likely move towards the
southeast, and off the mountains.

High pressure Saturday keeps the area dry (outside maybe a couple
mountain showers) and warm. Highs will climb back into 80s for most
of the area. The warm and dry weather persists into Monday as the
high pressure builds further in. Current models have the axis of the
ridge move over Tuesday, so that would be the warmest days, bringing
the potential for upper 80s and maybe even 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 959 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue late this
evening, with additional activity developing through the night,
especially east of the Divide. Most of this activity will continue
to produce light rain with limited impacts. That said, brief MVFR
impacts are possible, with the best chances at KLND and KRIW through
around 10Z. Precipitation will become a little less widespread by
daybreak Friday, though unsettled conditions will continue with
additional shower and thunderstorm development after 17Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dziewaltowski
DISCUSSION...Wittmann
AVIATION...Myers