762
FXUS62 KRAH 152319
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
720 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will sweep through the region tonight. Canadian
high pressure will follow the front and build across and offshore the
Middle Atlantic states Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Wednesday...

Aloft, a weak disturbance will progress sewd across the area this
aft/eve, between a low tracking sewd across se Quebec/ME and a high
over the lower MS Valley. At the surface, the high will weaken over
the Southeast US today, while a weak lee trough may briefly develop
ahead of the approaching dry backdoor front. The front should surge
swd across the area late eve/early tonight, with Canadian high
pressure (centered over the Great Lakes) ridging into the area in
its wake tonight. Dry weather should prevail through tonight. Highs
still expected to range from upper 70s/near 80 degrees west to
low/mid 70s east. In the wake of the front, winds may pick up again
overnight, albeit under clear/mostly clear skies. Low-level
thicknesses could drop to around 1360-1345 meters SW-NE by 12Z
Thursday. With all of the above in mind, expect lows Thu morning to
range from mid/upper 40s north to low/mid 50s south, although the
wind could make it feel a bit cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will be over Michigan Thursday morning and will slowly
drift southeast through the day. Despite mostly sunny skies,
northerly flow behind today`s cold front will keep highs several
degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 60s in the east to the
mid 70s in the west.

Skies will remain clear Thursday night, and while the wind will
likely become light if not calm, any flow that does occur will be
northerly. Between the clear skies and (nearly) calm wind, this will
allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Blended the NBM with
the the percentile NBM for lows. For some locations, this will be
the coolest night of the year so far. While most locations will drop
into the low to mid 40s, the typical cooler spots should dip into
the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Wednesday...

* Overcast skies and mostly light rain is expected to move across
  central NC late Sun afternoon into early Mon morning.

* Fine details of the forecast become increasingly uncertain late
  Sun through Wed.

A longwave trough will sharpen over the MS Valley on Sun and is
expected to slide into the Mid-Atlantic Sun night into Mon night.
There are some discrepancies between the GFS/CMC and the ECMWF
global models and their respective ensembles on the character of the
trough and related secondary surface low placement, but the primary
low is expected to stay well north of central NC as it shifts across
the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada. A cold front is expected to
traverse the eastern seaboard as this low departs on Mon with high
pressure building into the region into midweek.

In the latest forecast, hazardous weather is not expected this
weekend into early next week. Although convective activity over the
Mid-MS valley Sat evening is expected to progress eastward overnight
and perhaps reinvigorate into Sun, the existing airmass over the
Carolinas will likely be highly unfavorable for maintenance of
convection east of the Appalachians. As such, precipitation late Sun
afternoon into early Mon morning will likely come from decaying
showers, trailing stratiform, and/or finally perhaps a separate area
of stratiform rain as stronger synoptic forcing spreads across the
area. Expect mostly light precipitation amounts ranging from trace
amounts to as much as 0.25", greatest from the northern Piedmont to
the VA border; locally higher amounts of 0.5" to 0.75" will be
possible, but only if secondary low pressure develops farther south
into the Mid-Atlantic over VA.

There may be some fire weather concerns early to midweek behind the
cold front with downsloping winds, lower dew points, locally higher
wind gusts, and abnormally dry to moderate drought in the Piedmont
and Sandhills, but confidence in placement of surface features and
probabilities from 00z LREF are too low at this point to include in
the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 PM Wednesday... Very high confidence in VFR conditions
through 00z/Friday. The wind may be a bit gusty behind the cold
front this evening, and again with mixing Thursday morning. Gusts to
20 kt from the NNE.

TAF period Outlook: VFR conditions are likely until Sunday, when a
cold front will bring a chance for restrictions and showers to all
locations Sunday night. After the front moves through, VFR
conditions should prevail again on Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...RAH