255
FXUS62 KRAH 031118 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
615 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will wedge southward into the area behind a a back-
door cold front moving south through the region this morning.
A weak area of low pressure will track eastward along the baroclinic
zone as the boundary settles south of the region through the
evening, then moves offshore overnight. Another area of high
pressure will build into the area from the west Sunday into Monday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

*Cool, Damp Conditions Today

A low-amplitude southern stream shortwave trough will progress
quickly across the Southeast today, moving offshore tonight. At the
surface, a back-door cold front is currently pushing south through
central NC, reinforcing a cool, stable NELY low-level flow as weak
high pressure builds in from the north. While classic CAD is not
expected, this setup favors a hybrid wedge regime. An accompanying
weak surface cyclone will ride eastward along the baroclinic zone as
the boundary settles south of the region.

Weak perturbations ejecting ahead of the parent shortwave trough are
currently producing patchy light rain and sprinkles. The steadier
light rain will overspread the area after daybreak, tapering off
from west to east during the late afternoon and early evening,
exiting the coastal plain around 00z Saturday.

The weak hybrid CAD regime and rain will support a pronounced north-
to-south temperature gradient, with highs ranging from upper 30s to
near 40 across northern sections to mid/upper 40s across southern
portions.

Partial clearing is expected between 06 to 12z in the wake of the
exiting low, as low-level cold air advection ensues. Overnight lows
will range from mid to upper 20s north to lower 30s south.

QPF amounts are expected to average less than 0.10 inches along the
VA bordering counties to around 0.25-0.33" across the far SE
counties.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

The aforementioned s/w trough will have shift to the east of the
area by Sunday morning. However, expect we could have some lingering
low level cloud cover as the lingering CAD airmass continues to
erode, although mostly sunny skies are expected by mid to late
morning and continuing through the afternoon. Otherwise, surface
high pressure will build into the area from the Ohio Valley region
ushering in drier air, but more seasonable temperatures. Expect high
temps will range from the upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s
southwest.

Surface high pressure will settle over the Mid-Atlantic region
Sunday night. This will lead to continued dry conditions and
overnight generally ranging from the mid 20s to around 30.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday

* Unseasonably warm temperatures mid to late week with temperatures
  15-20 degrees above normal.

Surface high pressure will shift to the east of the area on Monday,
resulting in a warming trend that will lead to unseasonably warm
temperatures by mid to late week. Next week looks generally dry
during this time frame, although we could see some showers/rain by
late week (more so into next weekend) as the next slow moving system
approaches from the west.

High temps will climb each day from Monday through Wednesday,
starting out in the generally in the 50s for Monday, to the 60s on
Tuesday, and mid 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. A weak backdoor cold
front is expected to slip in to the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, before lifting back north as a warm front on Thursday
night as the surface high quickly moves offshore as the pattern
becomes more amplified with mid/upper level ridging building along
the eastern seaboard while a deep trough moves into the central U.S.
Regardless, still think high temps will be in the 60s across the
area on Thursday, but high may be in the lower 60s across the north.
Friday highs should rebound with highs generally in the upper 60s to
the lower to mid 70s. Lows will follow a similar trend, 30s for
Monday night, then generally 40s for the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 615 AM Saturday...

A weak area of low pressure will track east across the Southeast
today, bringing light rain and the potential sub-VFR restrictions
after daybreak. The latest TAF package has trended more
optimistic regarding ceilings and visibilities, as recent hi-res
guidance suppresses the steadier rainfall slightly farther south.
Accordingly, expect predominately MVFR restrictions at the northern
TAF sites(KINT,KGSO,KRDU,KRWI), with a greater likelihood of IFR
restrictions at KFAY. It remains possible that northern TAF sites
remain VFR through much of the period.

Rain will gradually taper off from west to east during the late
afternoon and evening, ending around 00z at KRWI. VFR conditions
are expected to return area-wide between 06 to 12z Sunday.

Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions are expected through much of
next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...CBL