253
FXUS65 KPUB 062037
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
237 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms likely through this evening across the southeast
  plains with all severe hazards possible.

- Warmer Saturday, with a decrease in storm chances, and only
  some isolated activity expected over the mountains and along
  the New Mexico border.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms return to the
  region on Sunday, continuing through next week, while
  temperatures remain seasonably warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Not much change in the latest thinking with a favorable evening
for severe thunderstorms across the southeast plains capable of
all hazard types from very large hail to damaging winds and even
a couple of tornadoes. HREF mean CAPE values are sitting around
1000-1500 J/kg, which is not too far off SPC Mesoanalysis
values. If dew points can maintain in the low 50s along the I-25
corridor around peak heating we could easily yield some higher
CAPE values per NAM soundings. Up to 2000+ J/kg will be possible
farther east across the plains with upper 50s to lower 60 dew
points. Impressive deep layer shears 50+ kts and favorable low
level helicities will continue to favor supercell development
with straight line hodographs suggest storm splits. Low level
hodograph curvature improves into the evening across the
eastern plains and SSCRAM output suggest unconditional tor
probabilities maximizing around LHX eastward after 00z. HREF
updraft helicities show some impressive swaths across the
southeast plains and Tornado watch will continue through 03z
with a possible need to extend for an hour across far southeast
plains until 04z.

Activity will gradually pull eastward through the evening and
exit eastern CO overnight. Will need to watch for possible
ground fog development overnight, particularly across the far
eastern plains.

Saturday will be a down day for thunderstorms, providing a much
needed break from severe thunderstorms of late. Upper trough
which is forcing today`s convection will be east of the area
which ushers in some drier dew points and more subsident
conditions. There is another much weaker wave that glances by to
the northeast during the afternoon. Could see some isolated
thunderstorms across southern areas in the afternoon, but lower
CAPE suggests sub severe thunderstorms for now. Temperatures
will rebound around 5 degrees.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Northern stream wave sends a cold front through the plains Sat
night/Sun morning, bringing a renewed surge of easterly upslope
winds by afternoon. Instability is modest (CAPE 500-1000 J/KG)
most locations, though higher dewpoints over the far sern
corner of the plans may boost CAPE toward 1500 J/KG by late day.
Overall, expect an upturn in t-storm coverage over the ern
mountains and across the plains Sun afternoon/evening, with few
strong storms possible in the more unstable air mass over the
far southeast. Max temps Sunday to drift downward a few degf
versus Sat, as cold front ushers in a slightly cooler air mass
over the ern half of the area.

Northwest flow aloft persists Mon/Tue across the region, with
afternoon/evening storms both days, most numerous over the
eastern mountains and across the plains. Upper ridge then shifts
east by mid/late week, with flow become more wly over CO.
Moisture remains in place, and with several weak short waves
progged to migrate through the western U.S., daily
shower/thunderstorm chances will continue. Temps will remain
seasonably warm through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

KCOS and KPUB are under the risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms later today with large hail and damaging winds the
most likely risks at both terminals. For that reason have
included a Tempo group in both terminals for hail in the 21z to
01z timeframe. Could see brief IFR vis and cigs under the
heavier storm cores with hail up to 2 inches in diameter. Risk
should push east of the terminals after 01z with a low end
probability of some stratus or ground fog developing towards
10-11z. Given the high uncertainty, kept a SCT010 group in for
now as winds don`t attain a persistent upslope direction to make
that scenario more probable. Saturday will see a return of drier
weather for both terminals.

KALS will remain VFR with thunderstorms likely to stay well off
to the north and east. Winds will increase out of the southwest
and gust up to 25 kts through the afternoon though wind
directions could get influenced by thunderstorm outflows outside
of the vicinity of the terminal from the north and east during
the late afternoon and early evening. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT