602
FXUS65 KPUB 312027
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
227 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible
  for tonight and tomorrow, with large hail, damaging winds,
  flash flooding, and possibly one or two tornadoes all being
  risks with storms today and tomorrow.

- Showers and storms continue into Saturday, decreasing in coverage
  and intensity.

- A warming a drying trend sets in for Sunday into the beginning
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Currently..

As of 2 PM, showers and thunderstorms have developed over our
western mountains, with a few of those storms showing signs of being
on the stronger side. Lots of lightning is being produced by these
storms, and lots of cu is developing on our plains as well as can be
seen on satellite imagery. A few storms have also formed up over the
Raton Mesa. Temperatures are mainly in the 70s and low 80s on the
plains. Dewpoints are mostly in the 50s on the plains and 40s over
the high country, though drier air is starting to work its way into
the mountains Leadville`s dewpoint is 30F this hour. SPC meso
analysis has around 1500 J/Kg of CAPE and 20-25kt of bulk shear
analyzed over our mountain adjacent plains this hour. Also of note,
wildfire smoke and haze from fires burning to our west is thickening
over the area, and may become irritating to sensitive groups
throughout the next several hours.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

High res model guidance continues to show showers and thunderstorms
progressing eastwards into the eastern mountains through the next
couple of hours, and out onto our plains early this evening. This
looks to be a bit of a later show by Colorado standards, but current
thinking is that a few storms could still be strong to severe by the
time they make their way out onto the plains in the late
afternoon/early evening timeframe, especially given how high our
dewpoints are sitting. SPC meso analysis shows a strong line of
storms pushing into the plains through 7 PM with elevated CAPE
and shear still in place at this time. Most models solutions
point towards convection clearing east of the I-25 corridor by
around 10 PM or so at the latest, and east into Kansas by 2 AM
or so. The good news is that showers and thunderstorms will also
help to clear a lot us out of the smoke and haze for awhile
through the overnight hours, though it is expected to return
tomorrow. Patchy fog and low clouds will also be possible for
portions of the area, especially over the Palmer Divide and El
Paso County in general. Overnight low temperatures look to
remain mild once again with lows ranging from the 40s over
mountain valleys, to 50s over the I-25 corridor, to 60s on the
eastern plains.

Tomorrow..

Friday`s setup is, synoptically, largely similar to today, though we
do see an increase in wind shear at the mesoscale level. We remain
in weaker west-northwest flow aloft, with moist southeasterly flow
at the surface. Another upper disturbance looks to pass overhead
through midday, providing another trigger mechanism for convection.
PWATs, forecast QPF amounts, and PoPs are mostly the same as well.
Moisture remains high, with afternoon dewpoints looking to remain in
the 60s and mid to upper 50s across the plains. This will mean
another day of marginal risk for severe thunderstorm development,
along with risks for flood flashing. High res model guidance
suggests another afternoon of decent CAPE in the 1500-2000 J/Kg
range, along with 35-45kt of shear along and east of the I-25
corridor. This setup would be supportive of damaging winds, large
hail, frequent lightning, excessive rainfall, and possibly a tornado
or two. Though storms will be moving more quickly, rainfall rates
will still be high. Any areas that see training storms, or have
received several days in row of heavy rain, will likely continue to
see risks for flash flooding tomorrow. We are outlooked for a
marginal risk for severe weather by SPC, and a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall by WPC. As for temperatures, we warm up by
several degrees tomorrow, with most of our plains seeing highs into
the upper 80s and low 90s. Wildfire smoke from fires burning to our
west will likely keep smoke and haze over the area through tomorrow
as well, especially during the daytime hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Friday...Rather broad ridge of high pressure will be in place across
the Desert SW, with weaker west-northwest flow aloft, and warm
southerly flow at the surface. Dewpoints are forecast to continue to
be in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the plains, so there remains a
decent llvl pool of moisture to help fuel thunderstorm development,
supported by model CAPE of 1400-2200 j/kg across the east all the
way up to the eastern slopes of the eastern mts. An upper
disturbance is expected to cross the Rockies during the day,
providing the trigger for convection once again during the afternoon
and evening. Bulk shear is forecast to start out at around 35 kts by
midday, then by late afternoon increase to 50 kts for the far
eastern plains, so all the signs are there for potentially another
active day. SPC has included a Marginal area for severe weather
across much of the eastern plains Fri, while WPC has the entire area
within a Marginal for excessive rainfall, taking into account the
potential for periods of heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms.
With multiple days of spotty moderate to heavy rainfall, keep track
of those areas that are developing saturated ground as that will be
the precursor for potential flooding issues. As for high temps, Fri
starts a multiple day warming trend, with aftn readings in the upper
70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the
plains.

Saturday...Upper ridge flattens out even more, providing for more of
a westerly flow aloft for storm movement and increased warming.
However, much of the upper pattern is somewhat identical to the
previous day, with about 2-3 degrees higher on the max temps.
Another upper disturbance crosses the Rockies during the day, once
again providing the spark for convection to tap into impressive CAPE
and bulk shear across the eastern plains. this time around, though,
the best conditions seem to lie closer to the eastern border, and
overall precipitation chances will be a bit lower regionwide. SPC
has painted the far eastern plains within a Marginal for severe
weather, and WPC continues to paint a sliver of Marginal for
excessive rainfall in the same area. As for temps, plan on highs in
the lower to mid 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s
for the plains.

Sunday through Wednesday...Upper ridge builds back into the Four
Corners region starting Sunday, with the ridge axis situated over NM
and CO. This will produce a strong warming and drying trend for the
area, with temps climbing to above seasonal normals by Tue. Daily
convection chances are trending to be isolated at best, mainly tied
to the higher terrain. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For KCOS..Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this
afternoon, with highest chances of storms moving on station between
22Z and 02Z. Brief reductions to MVFR visibilities in heavier rain
showers will be possible with storms today, along with gusty and
erratic winds. MVFR ceilings will also be possible early Friday
morning at KCOS.

For KPUB and KALS..Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with
around a 30% chance of storms moving on station at both sites. Gusty
and erratic winds will be possible with storms today, along with
brief reductions in visibilities during heavier rain showers.
Showers and storms are expected to clear, giving way to VFR
conditions generally after 03Z or so at both sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR