860
FXUS65 KPUB 121129
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
529 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storm potential this afternoon/evening across the
  far southeast Plains.

- Warmer and breezy today, with continued critical and near critical
  fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain.

- Trending cooler and unsettled for the weekend into early next week.

- Warmer and drier for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has weak to moderate
westerly flow aloft across the Rockies, with occasional short waves
translating through the faster zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest
through the Northern Tier. At the surface, weak easterly upslope flow
remains in place across the southeast plains, with temperatures cooler
than last night behind yesterdays cold front. Regional radars and
satellite imagery has clear skies in place across the Rockies.

For today and tonight, will see increasing westerly flow aloft once
again, as the next embedded wave translates across the Intermountain
West and into the Northern Rockies later tonight. Increasing westerly
downslope will develop lee troughing across the plains, with southerly
return flow developing an axis of instability across the southeast plains
of 1000-2000 j/kg generally north and east of a KTAD (Hoehne) to La
Junta line. With steep lapse rates, latest cams are indicating convective
development across the Southern Mtns and Raton Mesa this afternoon, with
strong to severe storm development across said instability axis across the
far southeast plains, where bulk shear of 30-40kts will be in place. With
DCAPE of up to 2000 j/kg, storm threats include damaging wind gusts of
60-80 mph, large hail up to 1.5 inches. Latest cams also support the
potential for tornadoes with increasing EHI along the southern tier.

Further west, warm, dry and breezy conditions will again support critical
fire weather conditions, with current Red Flag Warning in place from 11 am
to 8 pm across the Central and Southwest Mtns, the San Luis Valley and the
gap flow areas of mid Arkansas River Valley. Will likely see critical fire
weather conditions across portions of western Pueblo county, however, the
expected coverage does not support adding the whole zone into the warning
at this time. Temperatures warm back above seasonal levels area wide, with
highs mainly in the 90s across the plains, and in the 60s, 70s and 80s
across the higher terrain. Passing Northern Rockies wave looks to send a
front across the plains later tonight, with breezy northerly winds developing
overnight keeping lows rather mild in the mid 50s to low 60s across the
plains, and mainly in the 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Latest model data continues the trend of cooler and unsettled weather
for the weekend, with easterly upslope developing across the plains
on Saturday, bringing chances of showers and storms, especially the
eastern mtns and plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Will keep
the current Fire Weather Watch on Saturday across the Central Mtns
into the middle Arkansas gap prone areas, with timing of the front
and increasing available moisture possibly limiting the eastern
extent of Red Flag conditions.

Model data continues to bring a stronger, secondary surge across the
Rockies Sunday, with temperatures cooler below seasonal levels, along
with good chances of showers and storms, especially over and near the
higher terrain Sunday afternoon and evening.

Moderate west to northwest flow remains progged for Monday and Tuesday
will lead to slow warming trend back to at and above seasonal temperatures
by Tuesday. There will be enough available moisture to support daily
chances of showers and storms, with the potential for stronger storms
with said northwest flow aloft.

Modest westerly flow remains progged across the region for the middle to
end of next week, as upper level ridging across the Desert SW remains
progged to build into the Rockies, leading to temperatures back above
seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions will persist at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. At
KALS, period of gusty w-sw winds likely 20z-03z, then winds
diminish overnight. At KCOS, winds will gradually become more
sly through the day, with a few gusts 20-25 kts from 20z-01z.
Winds then turn nly overnight as a weak cold front drifts south
through the terminal. At KPUB, light/variable winds early this
morning will become s-se by midday, with a window for gusty west
winds (20-25kts) from 22z-01z. Winds then trend nly overnight
as a weak cold front moves through the terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Warm and breezy conditions will once again develop meteorological
critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central and
southeast Colorado, with a Red Flag Warning in place from 11 am to
8 pm across the Central and SW Mtns, the San Luis Valley and into
the gap flow areas of the middle Arkansas River Valley and Fremont
county. Will likely see critical fire weather conditions across portions
of western Pueblo county, however, the expected coverage does not
support adding the whole zone into the warning at this time.

Latest model data continues the trend of cooler and unsettled weather
for the weekend, with easterly upslope developing across the plains
on Saturday, bringing chances of showers and storms, especially the
eastern mtns and plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Will keep
the current Fire Weather Watch on Saturday across the Central Mtns
into the middle Arkansas gap prone areas, with timing of the front
and increasing available moisture possibly limiting the eastern
extent of Red Flag conditions.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ220-222>224.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ220-222-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
FIRE WEATHER...MW