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FXUS65 KPUB 020527
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1027 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and windy on Monday. Critical fire weather conditions
expected over the southern I-25 corridor.

- Passing system Tue/Wed brings snow to the central mountains and
scattered rain showers to lower elevations, precip amounts will be
fairly light, under a quarter inch.

- Fire danger increases again Thursday, before a new weather
  systems brings cooler and potentially wetter weather back to
  the region Fri/Sat, though track and intensity details are
  still far from certain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Passing mid to high-level clouds will work to keep things a bit
cooler this afternoon, though temperatures across the region are
still well above average. Beyond that, as the upper jet continues to
lift north, light showers will dissipate over the central mountains
and leave the area generally dry. Easterly winds will persist over
the plains, with cooler air lingering as well closer to the KS
border. Tonight, clouds roll in and out as winds at the lower
elevations weaken. Low temperatures will be similar to last night,
with 20s-30s over most areas.

For Monday, westerly flow picks up just ahead of an incoming upper
low, leading to warmer and drier conditions along with gusty winds.
Downsloping westerlies off the terrain will crank high temperatures
into the 70s over most of the plains, while the high valleys linger
in the mid-60s. When considering winds, will have to keep a close
eye on forecast soundings and vertical mixing extent. Surface winds
out east should remain out of the east, but some stronger mixing
could bring down some westerly gusts. Partial cloud cover may work
to mitigate that, though. West of I-25 and up into the higher
terrain, breezy west winds will persist through most of the day,
increasing chances for critical fire weather conditions in those
areas. Area of highest concern is currently over southern I-25, just
lee of the Huerfano County gap flow region. The San Luis Valley will
also be quite breezy and dry, but RH should be just high enough to
avoid the need for any highlights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

The upper trough and associated low pressure system will swing
through CO late Monday night into Tuesday. However, trends in the
models have continued nudging the system north, leaving most of the
better synoptic forcing north of our area. Late morning into early
afternoon, the southeast plains may actually see a few hours of
critical fire weather conditions as gusty west winds continue just
ahead of the incoming front. Cold arrives on the plains from the
north later in the day, bringing in a cooler airmass and the chance
for some precip. Current POPs show best chances for moisture over
the peaks of the central mountains and parts of the Palmer
Divide/Pikes Peak Region. Meanwhile, scattered showers will be
possible over southern portions of our CWA, though model trends
continue to dry things out. Optimistically, we can expect a quick
few inches of snow for the central mountains and the top of Pikes
Peak, while anything east sees some scattered rain showers. Any
downsloping areas will likely see little to no water hitting the
ground, particularly south of Highway 50, though some better
convective forcing could briefly override that. High temps will be
cooler Tues/Weds, with 50s-60s over most areas below the mountains.

The system is already past by Wednesday morning, with drier and
warmer conditions through Thursday. Expect highs to climb back into
the 70s over the plains on Thursday, while both days will see
chances for more critical fire weather conditions.

Friday and onwards, models continue to resolve a generally unsettled
pattern, with a broad signal for a trough to move in from the west.
This should bring noticeably cooler temps and better chances for
widespread precip, but as of now the evolution of the larger scale
pattern is still rather inconsistent between models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1022 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Winds will be light and diurnally driven during the overnight
hours and early tomorrow morning. Surface winds by tomorrow will
be influenced by an incoming trough and will become modestly
gusty from the south-southwest during the afternoon. These
winds will likely keep a south to southwest component tomorrow
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Monday for COZ229-230-
233.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for COZ229-230-233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH