646
FXUS65 KPUB 011102
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
502 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mostly
  confined to southern areas today as drier air spreads in from
  the west and north.

- Drier and warmer for all areas Wednesday and Thursday.

- Monsoon moisture increases again for Friday into early next
  week bringing a return thunderstorms with a heavy rainfall
  potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Dampening wave/upper trough across western Colorado this morning
will continue to lift northeastward across CO through the day,
with drier air spreading in behind. Morning showers will
continue ahead of the trough axis across portions of the
southeast mountains and plains, though main impacts will be
spotty light to moderate rainfall. Axis of monsoon moisture
translates eastward through the afternoon with the best chance
of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the
southern Sangre De Cristo mountains, Raton Mesa region and
southern portions of the southeast plains. Can`t rule out an
isolated strong storm with dew points in the 50s, CAPEs up to
1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 30 kts. Some small hail, wind
gusts up to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the stronger storms, primarily across Las Animas and Baca
counties through the evening. Otherwise, it will be drier out
west as dew points mix out into the 30s across the higher
terrain and interior valleys. We may struggle to see even an
isolated storm across the western mountains and valley regions.
Temperatures will rebound back into the mid 80s to mid 90s
across the southeast plains, with 70s to lower 80s across the
valleys, and 50s and 60s for the mountains. Clearing skies
tonight coupled with a drier airmass over the region will allow
for efficient radiational cooling with temperatures falling into
the upper 30s for some of the higher mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Dry southwest flow will keep most of southern Colorado
precipitation free for Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures
warming back into the 90s across the plains and even some near
100 degree readings across far eastern areas. Valleys will
return into the 80s with 60s and 70s for the mountain areas.
Breezy southwesterly afternoon winds may bring some spotty
critical fire weather conditions along portions of the I-25
corridor and San Luis Valley where precipitation has been more
scant. However these conditions do not look widespread enough to
require any fire weather highlights.

Monsoon moisture picks up again from the south and steadily
increases from Friday through the weekend.  This will bring a return
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms with heavy rainfall possible.
The best chances for rain will be across the mountains and valleys
where precipitable waters approach 140-160% of normal in
ensemble means. There will be rounds of showers and
thunderstorms across the plains as well, but lee troughing and
southwesterly surface flow keeps low level moisture quality more
limited. This should keep any heavier rainfall east of the
mountains more spotty in coverage.

Not much change into early next week with the moisture plume
oriented across western CO and daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances continuing.  Precipitable waters decrease a bit
for southern areas as the southern plains upper high expands
westward and nudges the best moisture plume across the Desert
Southwest and Great Basin towards the middle of next week.
Precipitable waters remain in the 110-140% of normal range which
will keep at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast, the stronger of which could still produce locally
heavy rainfall. Temperatures will remain above normal. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. A shortwave embedded within the moderate southwest flow
aloft could bring a few passing -shra to the terminals through
15Z. Partial clearing is expected into the mid afternoon, when
a few passing showers will be possible once again, mainly at PUB
and ALS, as the best coverage of convection is expected south
of the Highway 50 Corridor. Skies clear overnight. Breezy
southerly winds at the terminals this afternoon becomes
generally light diurnal for the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW