270
FXUS66 KPQR 062139
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
239 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft continues to dominate the
pattern this afternoon, supporting another stretch of relatively
warm and dry weather into next week. The daily concern/issue
will be the marine layer: low clouds expand inland late night
and early morning (with occasional coastal mist/drizzle), then
retreat toward the coast during the afternoon. How quickly that
happens will continue to drive day to day temperature swings.
The only notable interruption arrives Friday into Saturday as a
weak shortwave brushes the ridge, bringing a brief cool-down and
more cloud cover. Warm, dry conditions rebound quickly for the
weekend and persist into early next week, possibly trending
warmer towards the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...This late afternoon`s
setup is still "ridge-driven" at the large scale, but our
sensible weather is being controlled more by low-level marine
influences. Coastal areas remain most prone to periods of
stratus, and while any drizzle is generally confined to late
night/early morning near the beaches, it can`t be ruled out in
that window. Inland, the primary impact is temperature: slower
morning clearing generally means a cooler afternoon, while
earlier sunshine allows highs to run warmer.

From tonight through Thursday, expect a steady rhythm of
overnight inland stratus pushes through coastal gaps
(occasionally reaching into portions of the Willamette Valley),
followed by daytime clearing back toward the coast. Temperatures
will stay near to above seasonal averages even on the
"cloudier" days, with coastal and higher terrain highs mainly in
the 60s and inland valleys mostly in the low 70s. Afternoon
west winds will also continue, with the central Columbia River
Gorge and nearby exposed areas seeing periodic gusts around
25-30 mph into the evening.

Friday into Friday night is the only organized feature to note.
Guidance continues to weaken the shortwave that rides over the
ridge, and that keeps impacts limited to a modest increase in
cloud cover during the morning and a slight dip in temperatures.
Rain chances have dwindled further and are now around 5% or
less even along the coast/coastal terrain and the north
Cascades. At this point, measurable precipitation is not
expected across the forecast area.

By Saturday and into early next week, ridging quickly rebuilds.
That supports a return to a mostly sunny, warmer pattern with
the same day-night marine cloud cycle continuing near the coast.
Temperatures look seasonably pleasant: 60s along the coast and
higher terrain, and 70s to near 80 in inland valleys, including
a favorable setup for a warm and dry Mother`s Day. Early next
week, confidence lowers regarding exact afternoon temperatures.
Current guidance suggests afternoon high temperatures anywhere
between 70 and 88 degrees on Tuesday and 70 to 93 degrees on
Wednesday. This wide range of afternoon high temperatures will
likely narrow towards the weekend as future model runs try to
resolve whether the next pattern will be another ridge or a
trough. Current ensemble clusters remain in poor agreement, with
each ensemble cluster suggesting a different story: GEFS showing
an approaching trough, ENS showing a weakening ridge, GEPS
showing a ridge lingering over the PNW.
~12

&&

.AVIATION...As of 21Z Wednesday, low clouds were beginning to
scatter out over the southern and central Willamette Valley,
including KEUG and KSLE. Expect low clouds to scatter out over
the northern Willamette Valley and Portland metro a bit later by
22-23Z Wednesday. Despite improvement to VFR inland, marine
stratus is expected to resolidify late this evening into tonight
with MVFR ceilings becoming more widespread again for inland
areas. Meanwhile, marine stratus should remain firmly in place
through today and tonight along the coast with little to no
improvement expected this afternoon and evening. Winds generally
remain light and variable around 5 kt or less at all terminals.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Broken MVFR ceilings remain in place, but
should become either scattered or broken around 3500-4000 ft by
approximately 22Z Wednesday. While confidence is high skies will
become overcast again tonight by 06-12Z Thursday, confidence is
lower regarding exact ceiling heights, which could range anywhere
from 2000 to 4000 ft. Currently there is a 30-40% chance ceilings
wind up falling to 3000 ft or lower, and a 60-70% chance ceilings
stay closer to 3500-4000 ft. -23

&&

.MARINE...Strengthening high pressure offshore will bring
increasing northerly winds this evening, while a broader onshore
flow regime favors continued marine overcast which thickens and
lowers overnight before lifting and backing offshore each day
through the remainder of the week. The relatively stronger winds
this evening along with a building northwest swell will push seas
up to 7-9 ft by tonight, but a dominant swell period of 11-13
seconds should keep seas from becoming steep enough to present a
hazard to small craft. Isolated gusts may exceed 20 kt through
this evening beyond 30 NM.

As northerly flow weakens on Thursday and turns southerly on
Friday as a weak front moves over the coastal waters and decays,
seas will ease back to 4-7 ft. Southerly gusts may briefly
approach 20 kt on Friday afternoon before weakening again
overnight. Chances for rain on Friday have now fallen to below 5%.

High pressure will restrengthen offshore this weekend into early
next week, supporting a reintensification of northerly winds.
Chances for widespread gusts of 20-30 kt gradually increase each
day from Saturday through Tuesday, while seas continue at 5-8 ft.
-23/36

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

&&


$$

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