433
AXPQ20 PGUM 060114
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1114 AM ChST Fri Jun 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A weak monsoon disturbance, Invest 92W, is currently centered near
13N131E, drifting slowly west-northwest. Invest 92W remains low,
meaning development into a significant tropical cyclone is possible,
but not expected within the next 24 hours. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are found east of 92W, in a band
of convergence seen north of the monsoon trough. Confidence remains
low for 92W, though it is expected to continue to slowly drift west-
northwest and any development will be slow. The monsoon trough will
slowly drift northward along with 92W. Invest 92W will be monitored
closely over the next few days for any signs of development.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
A monsoon trough extends southeastward from a weak monsoon
disturbance, Invest 92W, centered near 13N131E, across Yap Proper, to
end near 6N147E. Pockets of moderate to deep convection in the form
of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found
along the trough, and within the monsoon surge south of the trough.
The convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence over the
area south of the trough. The trough looks to continue to drift
slowly north as Invest 92W continues to pull west-northwest toward
the Philippines. This will keep monsoonal flow over Palau and Yap for
the next several days, maintaining a prolonged period of unsettled
weather with heavy showers and gusty winds.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
Several trade-wind troughs are seen over the region. The first is
found west of the Marianas, extending northeast from near 11N139E to
end near 16N144E. This trough is producing a band of convergence to
the east that is interacting with divergence associated with the TUTT
to produce scattered to numerous showers from Rota to south of Guam.
This trough will continue to move northwest of the next few days,
remaining north of the monsoon trough and enhancing convection as it
moves through.

The next trough is seen south of Guam, extending east-northeast from
near 9N142E to end near 10N148E. Numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms are found in the convergence north of the trough where
upper divergence associated with the TUTT is enhancing the
convection. The trough looks to continue moving north-northwest over
the next few days, bringing increased showers and additional flooding
potential into Guam, and possibly the CNMI, later today.

The third trough is found just south of Kwajalein, extending
northeast from near 6N167E to end near 12N171E. Patchy clouds and
showers are associated with this trough. The trough will continue to
move west over the next few days with little change in intensity.

The last trough is found east of the Marshalls to well east of Wake
Island, extending north-northeast from near 7N175E to end near
16N179E. Convection with this trough is being enhanced by upper-level
divergence associated with the TUTT. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms are found west of the trough. The trough
and associated convection will continue to move west over the coming
days, with increased convection as it approaches closer to the
Marshall Islands.

TUTT...
A TUTT cell is centered near 21N150E, with the TUTT extending
southwest to end near 23N140E. Another branch of the TUTT extends
southeast from the cell to near 8N171E, where it then turns east-
northeast beyond the Date Line near 10N. Scattered to numerous
showers are found west of the TUTT cell, with patchy clouds and
showers found east of the cell. The TUTT that extends southwest of
the cell is enhancing convection across the Marianas, mainly from
Rota south, that is associated with a band of convergence over the
Marianas that is east of a trade-wind trough, as well as a second
trade-wind trough seen south of Guam, near 9N. Upper-level divergence
associated with the TUTT that extends southeast is enhancing
convection over the northern Marshall Islands that is associated with
another more robust trade-wind trough. The TUTT and TUTT cell look
to remain quasi-stationary over the next few days, with little change
in convection.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A weak band of trade-wind convergence stretches east-northeast from
near 14N159E to beyond the Date Line near 20N. Patchy clouds and a
few showers are seen along the band eastward to near 18N172E. East
of this point, convection is increasing due to being enhanced by
upper-level divergence. The band is expected to drop south over the
next few days, with the western end gaining a little strength as a
mid-latitude high pressure center helps to increase convergence.
Convection looks to decrease farther east as the upper-level
divergence exits the region.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ has pretty much dissipated across the region, with only a
small fragment still seen south of Kosrae and Pohnpei, extending west
from a buffer circulation centered near 1N160E to end near 1N166E.
Only patchy clouds and showers are associated with the fragment.

$$

Kleeschulte