177
AXPQ20 PGUM 020159
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1159 AM ChST Mon Mar 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A broad and weak circulation persists southeast of Koror near
5N140E. This system remains poorly organized and poses no risk of
development. However, periodic flare-ups of connecting continue
to develop along its periphery, with persistent deep convection
with one cluster on the southeastern flank of the system. Here,
locally heavy rainfall with wind gusts probably exceeding 30
knots are occurring, as evident by cloud top temperatures pushing
-90 deg. C/55,000 feet tall. The models show this system will
remain weak and completely dissolve during the next 24 to 36
hours. Until then, scattered showers, locally numerous, and
isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible through this
time.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The NET enters Guam`s AOR at 5N130E and extends to the weak
circulation mentioned above near 5N140E. The NET then turns
southeast to EQ157E where it ends. Westerly winds are noted below
this NET axis. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue to develop near and south of the NET. The models show the
NET will remain in place in a quasi-stationary form, with
potential additional development further east/southeast along the
NET probable later this week. Both the operational and ensemble
members of the GFS and ECMWF continue to show unusually good
agreement between them, as has been the case for several runs
(past 3 or 4 days). In general, some type of disturbance may
develop into a more organized circulation as it heads towards
Palau and Yap towards the latter half of this week.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
The first trough in the trades is located near Pohnpei, stretching
north from EQ157E to west of Pohnpei before ending at 10N157E.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are developing along and
east of this feature where surface convergence is maximized. Here,
moisture pooling is helping boost PWATs, which may allow for
locally intense flare-ups of convection, especially during
nocturnal hours.

Another more subtle trough is located near Kosrae, stretching
northeast from 4N151E to 7N157E. This area has developed along an
area of enhanced surface convergence, with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing along and east of it. A similar
convective behavior is anticipated the next few days as it
continues heading west.

A third trough is crossing the Date Line east to northeast of
Makin and stretches northeast from 2N175E to 5N180. Widely-
scattered showers are developing along this features.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
The trad-wind surge has weakened substantially since yesterday.
It remains aligned in a west-southwest to east-northeast
orientation, mainly centered between 10N and 20N from 135E to the
Date Line. Here, sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots are common with
a small area of 20 to 25 knots noted near the northern-most CNMI.
Altimetry shows seas of 6 to 9 feet from 135E to 155E, and higher
seas of 8 to 11 feet east of there. As high pressure across the
north Pacific continues to move northeast away from the region
over the next 36 hours, the winds and seas will continue to
subside as the pressure gradient weakens.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A cold front enters Guam`s AOR 25N164E and extends southwest to
18N160E, where it transitions into a shear line. It then continues
southwest to Guam before exiting Guam`s AOR at 12N130E. Scattered
showers are occurring along and within 200 miles of the cold
front and shear line, until it reaches Guam, where the
precipitation become numerous showers with Isolated thunderstorms.
Along the remainder of the shear line, widely-scattered showers
are developing from west of Guam to 130E. The cold front will
continue to slowly edge southeast, with the shear line slowing
its southward progression. This movement is expected to continue
the next 48 hours.$$

Doll