321
FXUS65 KPIH 121057
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
457 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake Wind Advisory for the American Falls Reservoir this
  afternoon and evening due to breezy to windy conditions.

- Weak trough moving through eastern Idaho today brings in
  cooler air for Saturday, then gradual warming through Tuesday.

- Second trough on Tuesday night/Wednesday cools temperatures
  again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Upper level low over western Canada will swing a weak trough
through eastern Idaho today. This will increase wind enough to
create some blowing dust and rough waters on the American Falls
Reservoir. So a Lake Wind Advisory for the reservoir was issued
for today. There is a wind shift that starts tonight to the
northeast, and the wind increases to the point that a Lake Wind
Advisory will be needed again on Sat and Sun, because of
northeast wind exceeding 8KT. Otherwise wind is staying below
warning and advisory thresholds.

This trough is so dry that few clouds will move through the
region. The only area expecting to see a risk of showers, and it
is still very low, is the northeast corner of Fremont County in
the extreme northeast portion on Sat and Sat night. Other days
and locations are expected to be dry.

Temperatures will cool down thanks to the northerly wind
expected during the day Sat, then a gradual warming through Tue,
with low 90s possible in the eastern Magic Valley and Snake
River plain by then. Yet another dry trough and surface cold
front brings high temperatures down again for Wed and Thu, but
still staying above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 452 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Although a trough will be passing through the region today and
tonight, the air is so dry that not even much cloud cover is
expected until late tonight along the divide, affecting only
KDIJ. So no CIG of concern and VSBY should be unlimited as well.

Which leaves wind shifts. While strong wind is expected in the
northern part of the eastern Magic Valley, current NBM and HRRR
indicate light wind for KBYI, in the southern portion of the
Magic Valley. Expect G30KT at KIDA and G25KT at KPIH for the
late afternoon and early evening. Expect G20KT in the mid-
evening at KSUN once the trough shifts winds to northwest and
north. Otherwise wind should stay at sustained 15KT or less.
Only KDIJ and KSUN appear to go variable tonight, with the other
three staying elevated at 8KT to 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Dry cold front moving through during the day will bring gusty
windy and continued low humidity. If the fuel conditions were
more critical, the eastern Magic Valley, Zone 425, would be
under critical fire weather conditions. The southern Sawtooth
NF, Zone 427 ahs some limited areas for two hours reaching
critical fire weather conditions, so the borderline conditions
that are slightly below thresholds for time and coverage means
no Red Flag Warning for today/tonight.

Humidity will continue low, with lower elevations hovering
around the 15 percent critical threshold in the southwest
quadrant and valleys in the Salmon-Challis NF. With limited risk
of showers and even cloudiness, minimum humidity gets into
single digit range by Wed and Thu. With a trough moving through
Tue Night/Wed, Red Flag conditions appear to be possible at that
time.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Messick
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick