141
FXUS66 KPDT 312054
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
154 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.DISCUSSION...Current radar shows cells developing in central OR
as well as the lingering cells moving over the Yakima and Kittitas
Valleys. These cells are still producing lightning and ground
observations are showing some of the cells over the last 3 hours
have put down between 0.02 to 0.08 inches of rain. Isolated
dry thunderstorms as well as some storms with heavy rains are expected
to linger across the majority of the region through the remainder
of the day and overnight.

RED FLAG WARNING remain in effect through 8 PM for Kittitas and
Yakima Valley areas and 11 PM for central OR, eastern mountains,
east slopes of the OR Cascades and the N & S Blues.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH in effect through 11 PM due to the potential
for heavy rainfall over the 2024 burn scars.

Models are in firm agreement with the upper level flow bringing in
southerly flow and some decent moisture advection. CAMs models
show PWATs to range anywhere between 0.50 inches to near 1 inch of
rain available. Due to the models showing moderate confidence with
heavy rainfall, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the same
areas due to the numerous burn scars from last years fire season.
However, confidence in the flash flooding is low (5-15%) at this
time. Not only are some of these storms expected to put out heavy
rain, but there is also a moderate chance (60-80%) that there
will be isolated dry thunderstorms embedded in the system as well.
With the very dry and hot conditions over the previous days,
critical fire weather concerns have peaked and with the expected
abundant lightning from these storms, a Red Flag Warning was
issued for the critical areas.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return every afternoon
through Monday (70-80%) as the models show the upper level low to
the south and the incoming upper level low from off the B.C.
coast, south flow will continue to bring in moisture advection
along the southern portion of the CWA.

Models show a shift in the pattern with westerly flow aloft
allowing the region to dry out beginning Monday through the end of
the period with only the WA Cascades seeing returning
precipitation Thursday. Temperatures will remain slightly above
seasonal normal with 60-80% of the raw ensembles keeping the
Basin, adjacent valleys, Gorge, John-Day Basin and the foothills
of the Blues in the mid 80s, central OR in the upper 70s Tuesday
with a degree or two uptick through Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Airport Weather Warning for Cloud
to ground lightning within 4 miles of PSC valid through 19Z. VFR
conditions will persist through the period. VCTS will occur at
ALW/PSC/PDT/YKM through the afternoon with RDM/BDN beginning to
see VCTS in the early afternoon. Gusty and erratic outflow winds
with gusts up to 50 mph. Otherwise, winds will be diurnally driven
with isolated breezy conditions at DLS with gusts to 30 kts.
Bennese/90


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  90  62  92 /  30  30  10  10
ALW  70  90  67  93 /  40  30  20  10
PSC  65  93  62  96 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  68  93  63  94 /  30  40  10   0
HRI  68  92  63  96 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  65  89  61  90 /  30  40  20   0
RDM  55  89  53  89 /  30  20  20  10
LGD  61  85  58  89 /  50  60  20  20
GCD  59  88  57  89 /  70  30  20  30
DLS  67  91  65  89 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ049-050-
     502-503-505-506-509-511.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ697>700-704-
     705.

WA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ522.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ695.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...90