616
FXUS61 KPBZ 232334
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
634 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Snow amounts have been lowered slightly, but significant
  accumulation is still expected areawide.
- Ice accretion amounts have increased in the ridges,
  particularly in northern West Virginia ridges.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The Winter Storm Warning continues. Significant snow
accumulations are still forecast, but sleet and freezing rain
chances have increased in the ridges, particularly in northern
West Virginia.

2) A prolonged period of cold temperatures is forecast from today
and extending through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The Winter Storm Warning continues. Significant snow
accumulations are still forecast, but sleet and freezing rain
chances have increased in the ridges, particularly in northern
West Virginia.

The large-scale pattern as advertised by the model suite has
not changed significantly with the upcoming winter storm. An
Arctic cold front currently dropping across the region with a
thin band of snow showers will have the main impact of
introducing a very cold air mass back to the region. Upstream,
shortwaves originating over the northern Plains and southern
Rockies will begin to phase as they approach the Mississippi
River Valley Sunday/Sunday night. Surface low pressure develops
along the Gulf Coast Saturday night and lifts northeastward on
Sunday, eventually handing off to a developing Atlantic Coast
low by Monday morning. Inverted troughing pokes northward into
the Middle and Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night and Sunday. On
the eastern side of this, southeast flow and a decent southerly
850mb jet will support warming aloft mainly to the south and
east of Pittsburgh on Sunday. With increased confidence in this,
greater coverage and amounts of freezing rain and sleet have
been introduced. This is particularly true in the higher
terrain of northern West Virginia, where one to two tenths of
ice accretion may occur, along with a period of sleet. This has
cut down the snow accumulations in this region.

Overall, moisture and lift remain impressive overall with this
system. We still expect a coupled upper jet structure, layered
frontogenesis, and the inverted trough to support strong lift.
Precipitable water is forecast to reach around the 90th
percentile level as compared to late January climatology as
well. So, overall liquid equivalent totals of 1 to 2 inches are
still a good bet. With the further northward extent of warm air
aloft, snow-to-liquid ratios have trended down slightly, which
was the main factor in lowering storm total snowfall amounts.
Nevertheless, a widespread significant snowfall is still
forecast across the region with high confidence.

Here are the latest 48-hour ensemble-based probabilities for
48-hour snow totals through 7 AM Monday. They are similar to
previous model runs overall, but probabilities for the higher-
end accumulations have decreased slightly:

15":10-50%
12":50-80%
8": 75-95%
6": 85-100%
4": 95-100%

Given the lower expected SLRs, there remains a decent chance of
a heavier, wetter snow, especially near and south of Pittsburgh.
Also, given low SLRs and increased chances for freezing rain,
the chance of power outage impacts is increasing in the higher
elevations, particularly in northern West Virginia. We will
need to continue to monitor precipitation-type trends and
adjust accordingly. However, there is high confidence in Winter
Storm Warning-level impacts in any case. The timing of the
heaviest snow still appears to be during Sunday morning south of
I-70, and late morning Sunday through Sunday evening north of
I-70. Cold northwesterly flow and the crossing parent upper
trough could result in lingering snow into Monday.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts as this system
approaches, as widespread impacts to travel and daily life are
highly likely Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A prolonged period of cold temperatures is forecast from today
and extending through next week.

Behind the crossing arctic boundary, temperatures will begin to
fall through the remainder of the afternoon. Tonight will
feature the coldest temperatures of the season thus far, between
5 below and 5 above zero across the region. Although wind will
not be significant, it will be enough to push wind chills to
between 10 and 20 below for the majority of the region. The Cold
Weather Advisory remains in effect from this afternoon into
Saturday morning.

Widespread and prolonged cold is still forecast to continue
through next week. Although the warm surge on Sunday may push
high temperatures into the 20 to 30 degree range, a reinforcing
cold shot behind the storm system, along with deep upper
troughing, will keep very cold temperatures in the region Monday
through Friday, and perhaps beyond. Highs will be mainly in the
teens with lows in the single digits. Wind chills are expected
to range from 0 to 10 below, especially during the nighttime and
early morning hours. In addition to the hazardous cold, these
conditions will also promote the development of river ice.

During this relatively long period of well below normal mean
daily temperatures, infrastructure problems (frozen pipes,
etc) remain a concern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES...

1) WNW winds subside overnight, veer to ENE on Saturday

2) Impactful winter storm Saturday night through Monday
------------------------------------------------------------

VFR is prevailing at most terminals this evening with the
stratocu deck near and north of PIT having gradually scattered
over the past couple hours. VFR is expected to continue through
the 24-hr TAF period as high clouds increase in density and
gradually lower (but remain VFR) from south to north during the
day Saturday. Light snow with MVFR restrictions could start at
early as the 22z-00z timeframe Saturday evening at ZZV, though
the heaviest snowfall and most impactful restrictions are
forecast to spread across the region just after this TAF cycle.

A few terminals continue to see gusts to 20-25 knots to kick off
this TAF cycle, but overall winds have started to settle and
should continue to do so through overnight hours. Light winds
are then expected throughout the day Saturday, gradually veering
from WNW to ENE.

Outlook... A winter storm will bring significant impacts to the
region Saturday night through Monday as low pressure tracks
across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic regions. Widespread
IFR/LIFR is expected to develop in snow beginning overnight
Saturday into Sunday, continuing through at least the first
half of Monday. The snow intensity is expected to be moderate to
heavy at times. The most likely time of seeing 1/2 to 1 inch
per hour snowfall rates is from late Saturday night through the
day Sunday. It is likely that most airports across our region
will see a widespread 8-15 inches of snow, with some localized
areas with higher totals. Sleet and freezing rain may possibly
mix in at MGW lowering snowfall accumulation and possibly
totaling between a glaze and 0.10" of ice. This system will
likely create widespread significant impacts to airport and
aviation operations. Some cig restrictions could continue into
Tuesday under broad upper troughing and cold air aloft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A winter storm and anomalously cold airmass will challenge some
area records for daily maximum snowfall, daily cold
temperatures, and duration of cold temperatures. Various
snowfall and cold records are listed below for reference.

Pittsburgh Top Daily Snowfall of All Time:
1)  23.6" - March 13th, 1993
2)  22.0" - December 17th, 1890
3)  16.5" - January 8th, 1884
4)  16.3" - March 3rd, 1942
5)  15.0" - March 5th, 1902
6)  12.7" - April 3rd, 1901
7)  12.5" - March 3rd, 1960
T7) 12.5" - November 9th, 1913
9)  12.4" - January 4th, 1994
10) 12.0" - January 22nd, 1966

Pittsburgh Top Daily Snowfall of All Time in January:
1)  16.5" - January 8th, 1884
2)  12.4" - January 4th, 1994
3)  12.0" - January 22nd, 1966
4)  11.2" - January 3rd, 1914
5)  11.0" - January 13th, 1964

Pittsburgh Top Daily Snowfall this Century:
1)  11.4" - February 5th, 2010
2)  9.7"  - February 6th, 2010
3)  9.3"  - December 16th, 2020
4)  8.8"  - February 16th, 2003
5)  8.7"  - March 21st, 2018

Pittsburgh Daily Snowfall Record for:
January 24th: 7.5" - 1899
January 25th: 5.2" - 2014
January 26th: 4.3" - 2015

Daily Cold Records at Risk of being Broken:
New Philadelphia, OH (1/24 Daily Low Record) - 14F (1963)

Most Consecutive Days with Temp below <=25F in Pittsburgh:
1)  15 days - ending February 3rd, 1961
2)  12 days - ending January 6th, 2018
T2) 12 days - ending December 26th, 1989
T2) 12 days - ending February 19th, 1958
5)  11 days - ending December 16th, 1958
T5) 11 days - ending February 2nd, 1936

Most Consecutive Days with Minimum Temp <=10F in Pittsburgh:
1)  14 days - ending February 2nd, 1936
T1) 14 days - ending January 17th, 1912
3)  11 days - ending December 24th, 1989
T3) 11 days - ending January 13th, 1981
5)  10 days - ending February 21st, 2015

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday for
     PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ074-076-
     078.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for OHZ039>041-
     049-050-059-068-069.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday for
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ048-057-
     058.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for WVZ001>004-
     012-021-509>511-513.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday for
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ512-514.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...88
AVIATION...Cermak/AK