804
FXUS61 KPBZ 312159
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
559 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather returns for the weekend into early next
week. The next chance for rain comes mid-week with still
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain tapers off and clouds scatter out overnight.
- Lows a bit below normal.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Afternoon showers and storms have now exited the area this
evening as the cold front slides south out of our area. In its
wake, low-level cold advection in north to northeast flow has
resulted in some light showers/drizzle in lingering near-surface
saturation. Low and mid level water vapor loops indicate drier
air working its way in that will ultimately put an end to the
last of the light showers after sunset.

Clouds will scatter from the north tonight coincident with the
aforementioned dry air intrusion. Combined with dew points
dipping into the low 50s up north and upper 50s/low 60s farther
south, low temperatures will dip into the 50s and 60s across the
board; a great night to give the AC a break and open those
windows. With elevated wind in a slowly relaxing pressure
gradient behind the front, fog formation will be much less
likely Friday morning and only possible in the most sheltered
valleys and where the most rain fell today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Comfortable conditions expected Friday.
- Below average temperatures.
- Isolated showers in the West Virginia ridges.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Foggy conditions early Friday are not likely with breezy conditions
overnight. If showers redevelop during the day on Friday, it will
likely be along the ridges in Fayette County PA and parts of West
Virginia with some weak low-level convergence. With increasing mid-
level subsidence, expect shower intensity to be weak.

Below average temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front
to persist into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Pattern shift supports cooler conditions over the weekend.
- Dry conditions through Monday.
- Warming trend over the week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The majority of weather models agree that a trough will cover the
Ohio River Valley this weekend, making near to below-average
temperatures probable with west-northwesterly flow. On Monday,
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s return with a gradual warming
trend expected during the week. By the end of the week, temperatures
could reach 90F.

The area is expected to remain dry through Monday with a low
probability of rain showers on Tuesday. Wednesday, long-range models
are showing the return of a trough and an increased chance for rain
to return.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front continues to press southward across the region. Based
on surface observations the front looks to currently be draped
across our northern counties. Along the front stratiform rain with
MVFR VIS and pockets of IFR mist continue as CIGs lower below 1000
feet. PROB30s for storms have been removed from DUJ/BVI/FKL with
these ports deep in the stratiform rain and rather cool at the
surface.

Across the southern portions of our area thunderstorms are
propagating eastward along a pre-frontal trough. This activity will
push through MGW shortly and will not threaten any other ports after
about 19z. Between these storms and the advancing front clear skies
could allow for some reinvigoration or sparking of new
convection but this chance seems rather low. Due to this PROB30s
were left for storms in PIT,AGC,LBE and HLG. Not all of these
PROB30s are the same with chances slightly higher for HLG and
LBE that will have more time with clearing.

After the front moves through CIGs are expected to drop to low end
MVFR or IFR with mist possible. Most models however show the low
levels drying out rather quickly overnight and hint at a possible
return to VFR by sunrise Friday.

Outlook... High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR (save for
more river valley steam fog) with dry weather Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLB/Lupo
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/Lupo
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...Cermak/AK