516
FXUS63 KPAH 062323
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
523 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold frontal passage on Friday will be accompanied by a
  small chance for a shower or storm, but most areas likely
  remain dry. Another small chance of rain is possible Saturday
  night into Sunday morning.

- A brief, but bitter, Arctic blast will bring the coldest
  temperatures of the season by far Sunday and Monday. High
  temperatures Monday may struggle to climb above 40 degrees
  with lows in the 20s.

- Wind chill values in the teens are forecast both Monday and
  Tuesday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley today will shift east as
a disturbance over the Northern Plains slides into the Great Lakes
tonight into Friday. A surface low well to our north will drag a
cold front through our region Friday morning into early afternoon.
The general trend has been a bit faster with the fropa and the
overall forcing appears to struggle to generate much in the way of
precipitation in our cwa. While there may be just enough instability
to support a storm or two across west KY during the afternoon,
essentially all of the CAMs keep convection further east and
southeast of our area. It likely will be a struggle to even see a
few showers, with most of the area more than likely to remain dry.
The airmass behind the first frontal passage remains mild, with
temperatures above normal in the upper 60s to around 70 on Saturday.

Confidence remains high that our region will experience our first
true shot of cold temperatures Sunday into Tuesday, with the leading
edge arriving Saturday night as a cold front dives through the Ohio
Valley. A few light showers are possible Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Sunday looks blustery with highs only in the 40s and wind
chills likely remaining in the 30s much of the day. The brunt of the
cold arrives Sunday night through Tuesday morning as energy diving
south out of Canada leads to a deep upper low developing. Lows each
morning will be well down into the 20s with wind chills in the teens
in many places. Highs on Monday may struggle to reach 40, with wind
chills remaining in the low to mid 30s thanks to a healthy northwest
breeze.

The robust cold air advection combined with the deep upper low will
likely squeeze out some light snow showers/flurries across the Ohio
Valley Sunday night into Monday. This threat appears to remain
primarily northeast of our cwa, but it certainly is possible that we
could see a few flakes in the air during this time (particularly in
the Wabash Valley into southwest Indiana)

Upper level heights rise mid to late next week, leading to a nice
warm-up back into the 60s by Wednesday and beyond. May even see 70s
again later in the week or the following weekend (Nov 15-16).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Clouds will begin to thicken late tonight into Friday morning
ahead of an approaching cold front. A period of MVFR cigs is now
more likely, especially across the eastern terminals. Confidence
remains low in light rain shower chances in the morning, mainly
impacting KEVV & KOWB. SE winds veer W on Friday between 6-12
kts with gusts around 20 kts. Behind the front, cigs will
scatter out during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DW