886
FXUS63 KPAH 072043
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
243 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front passage this afternoon will bring a chance of
  showers and a few thunderstorms, but most areas will likely
  remain dry.

- A strong cold front Saturday night brings a chance of showers
  and ushers in a brief but bitter Arctic cold airmass with the
  coldest temperatures of the season Sunday through Tuesday
  morning with Sunday night and Monday night lows in the
  mid-20s.

- Wind chill values in the teens are forecast both Monday and
  Tuesday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this afternoon on the
TN side of the KY border. Lingering clouds remain over Western
Kentucky as dew points have risen to the low to mid 60s. A very
narrow region of clearing has formed preceding the cold frontal
passage which stretches from near Pike County, Indiana to
Marble Hill, Missouri. Initial cell formation has begun along
the front, with potential for storms to fire along the line
through the remainder of the afternoon to just after sunset.
Shear is sufficient to get things going, but the cloud cover is
limiting instability and moisture further north is more limited.
Thus, strong to severe storm potential is limited and the more
interesting storms will be in Central KY/TN today.

Cooling from the front will be limited as a small high pressure
area brings clearing and calming conditions tonight, with lows
in the lower half of the 40s. Southerly flow returns tomorrow
ahead of a developing system in the Central Plains. A strong
cold front moves through Saturday night, bringing Canadian air
well into the South, but is very limited on precip with
negligible QPF for Saturday night`s rain showers. Models differ
on how quickly this system departs on Sunday, with the NBM
seeming to be more aggressive at keeping wrap around light
showers or sprinkles/flurries Sunday/Sunday night. Any snow
flurries will be purely aesthetic and not cause any impacts.

The coldest air of the season moves in following the front,
leading to widespread hard freeze conditions Sunday night. Lows
Sunday night drop to the mid 20s, with early Monday morning
wind chills of 12 to 20 degrees. Highs Monday max out in the
lower half of the 40s though some spots in the northeast may
fail to make 40, especially if wrap-around precip remains, while
lows Monday night return to the mid-20s. Preparations should be
made now by checking home heating systems and finding winter
gear.

With the trough quickly departing Monday, temperatures will
rebound quickly as high pressure builds over the western two-
thirds of the country. By midweek, highs return to the 60s with
lows in the 40s. Dry weather through the workweek is expected
with the next chance of rain looking to be from a front trailing
off a Great Lakes system next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Primarily MVFR ceilings have filled in across the Quad State.
Showers and a few lightning flashes are currently confined to
the southern Kentucky Pennyrile but, as a front sweeps across
the Quad State later this afternoon, additional showers and
storms can develop, mainly affecting Western Kentucky and nearby
areas across the Ohio/Mississippi. Breezy WSW winds today
gusting to around 17-20 kts will shift more westerly later in
the afternoon, becoming WNW behind the front. Winds do become
light overnight though, with skies clearing. Scattered high
clouds move in tomorrow, with winds closer to 5 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL