203
FXUS63 KPAH 201749
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible this evening mainly west
  of the Mississippi River. All modes of severe are possible.

- Warm and dry early next week with a warming trend from Tuesday
  through Thursday.

- Chances for showers and storms come back for the latter half
  of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

We could still see a few showers and storms through this morning
across SEMO and southern IL, though most of the hi-res guidance
suggests we stay on the drier side. A warm front will lift north
through the area over the coming hours. A cap looks to be in place
which would keep us dry today. The lifting of this warm front
coupled with deep mixing we could see highs pushing the middle 80s
today along with breezy conditions. Momentum transfer in soundings
suggests gusts of 35-40 mph possible this afternoon. The deep mixing
will also lead to lower dewpoints in the upper 50s (populated the
RAP for dewpoints this afternoon) which will further limit any
instability.

This evening and tonight as the sfc low moves through northern MO
toward the Upper Midwest the attendant cold front will be pushed
through the area. Showers and storms are expected along the front,
some of which may be strong to severe, especially west of the
Mississippi River. Soundings show 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 60-65
kts of deep layer shear, and mid level lapse rates of 6-6.5 degC/km.
Not quite as impressive as previous model runs. Timing looks to be
just a touch slower with storms in SEMO from around 7-10 PM. All
modes of severe are possible west of the Mississippi River with
rapidly waning instability as it moves east. As far as rainfall,
most places will see less than an inch of rain through the end of
the weekend (especially if we don`t see showers and storms this
morning).

Some showers may linger over the southern KY Pennyrile through
Monday morning, otherwise it`s a dry day with highs in the 70s. A
warming trend kicks off Tuesday through Thursday with highs pushing
back up into the 80s. Various shortwaves in the west-southwest flow
aloft next week bring chances for precip Wednesday afternoon onward.
Confidence in any exact details remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Winds will become southerly and gust 20-30kts at times this
afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible. An area of
convection will provide a few hours of impact to the TAF sites
as it moves east across the region late this evening into the
overnight. Instability drops off pretty quickly, so will not
mention TSRA at KEVV and KOWB. A period of MVFR or brief IFR
conditions in SHRA/TSRA is expected, with the lowest conditions
in the TSRA. MVFR or low VFR ceilings are expected behind the
convection and will linger through the end of the period.
Westerly winds could gust 15-20kts with mixing in the morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...DRS