888
FXUS63 KPAH 082204
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
504 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures return today and especially Wednesday, with
  highs in the 90s today, and the middle 90s to around 100
  degrees Wednesday. Heat index readings today will be around
  100 degrees, and in the 100 to 110 degree range Wednesday.

- An approaching cold front will provide chances of showers and
  some thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday night. The
  best chances of 75% to 95% will be late Wednesday night
  through the day Thursday.

- 20-30% chances of showers and storms will linger into Friday
  and through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Dry weather continues for the Quad State region today as surface
high pressure remains in the east. An elongated area of ridging
across much of the southern half of the country has allowed for
temperatures to reach the 90s across the area. Heat index values
are presently in the mid-90s in the north and near 100 in the
south. Patchy cumulus has formed, mainly in the eastern half of
the Quad State.

Southerly winds today remain and increase late tonight out of
the SSW, with winds rising to 10-15mph tomorrow. The southerly
flow will advect moisture into the region from the Lower
Mississippi via Arkansas/Tennessee, and keep low temperatures in
the low to mid 70s. This warm and moist advection will raise
temperatures and heat indices tomorrow. While the NBM
initialization may be a bit overzealous on moisture advection,
and T/Td were lowered slightly in collaboration with western
neighbors as a result, highs in the mid-90s to upper 90s remain
forecast for most of the Quad State, with 100 degrees most
likely in the Ozarks. Heat indices of 102-108 are forecast
(highest in the southwest, lowest in the Kentucky Pennyrile),
and a heat advisory has been issued for the entire Quad State
region. HeatRisk is level 3 for tomorrow and performed well for
the recent hot/dry extreme heat event. Since rain has been
difficult to come by of late, this should remain the case for
tomorrow.

However, showers and thunderstorms do enter the picture
tomorrow, with some models developing a WSW to ENE oriented
broken line of convection midday. Others hold off convective
activity until later in the afternoon. Any areas which receive
midday storms may fall short of heat advisory criteria, and
afternoon storms will provide heat relief for those that receive
them. Reasonable CAPE and decent lapse rates will be offset by
limited shear. DCAPE values over 1000J/kg suggest the primary
strong to severe weather hazard will be straight-line winds from
downbursts. A marginal risk for severe weather covers
approximately the northern half of the Quad State region. Shower
and storm activity increases later in the evening and remains
off and on through the night and much of Thursday, but severe
weather potential drops off Wednesday evening.

A cold frontal passage Thursday will contribute to highs in the
80s Thursday and Friday, but models project the boundary to lift
back north Saturday. Lower end precipitation chances remain
Friday through Sunday, generally around 20-30%. Sources for
showers/storms include moisture streaming near the boundary
Friday into Saturday on the southern edge of the Quad State and
a weakening system approaching from the northwest during the
weekend. Limited precipitation potential remains early next week
as high pressure sits over the Mid-Atlantic and activity is most
prevalent near the Great Lakes. With ridging slowly building
late weekend and lingering to early next week, more highs in the
lower 90s are forecast, though conditions should stay below
Advisory level criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

High pressure still dominates the broader part of the forecast,
but there is an approaching front that enters the picture
during the planning phase hours of the forecast tmrw. Until
then, we`ll see diurnal bases expire with loss of insolating
fuel, with just FEW-SCT mid to high level bases overnight. Tmrw,
said front approaches from the north, introducing PROB30 at
KMVN toward the end of the day. Otherwise, lower level bases
will have a hard time forming with 100 MB+ of condensation
pressure deficits holding firm up to about 6-8K FT AGL, so any
BKN CIGS that develop will likely be AOA about 6-8K FT AGL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/
     Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$