161
FXUS63 KPAH 221709 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1109 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than normal temperatures today will moderate to above normal
  Sunday into Monday. Light rain chances are possible Sunday
  night into Monday.

- A return of cooler than normal temperatures are expected
  starting Tuesday and continuing through the Thanksgiving
  Holiday weekend.

- Travel may be impacted by widespread rain across the region
  Thanksgiving Eve into Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface high pressure across the Plains today will shift east across
our area on Saturday. The pressure gradient won`t be as strong
today, but still enough to produce a chilly 10-15 mph breeze, with
some gusts up around 20 mph. Wind chills begin the day in the upper
20s to around 30 and will jump into the 40s this afternoon. Winds
will be rather light on Saturday with the surface high overhead.
Overall a pretty decent day with highs back into the 50s.

On Sunday, a strong south breeze will develop (gusts of 20-25 mph)
as a surface low moves east from the Central Plains. This will help
temperatures rebound into the 60s. As the low pivots northeast into
Michigan through Monday, a cold front will move across our area. The
best forcing remains further north and moisture return isn`t great
ahead of it. However, we should still squeeze some light rains out
of it on Monday.

A cooler pattern returns beginning Tuesday and appears likely to
last through the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. Highs in the 40s will
be common during the week, and it appears increasingly likely that
even colder conditions may dive into the area by next weekend.

After a dry day on Tuesday, models continue to advertise a system
spreading rain across the region Wednesday into Thanksgiving. QPF
amounts were quite a bit lower on the 00z suite of guidance with the
higher amounts over 1 inch largely south of our cwa. Certainly
wouldn`t put too much stock into that though and the heavier amounts
could easily pivot back northwards. It appears that any frozen
precipitation with this system should stay north of our area.
Afterwards, ensembles are favoring troughing amplifying across the
eastern U.S. which would result in even colder temperatures for the
very end of the month and into the start of December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Broken to overcast deck around 2800-3200 ft in the west and
1800-2200 ft in the east may erode a bit from west to east
through the afternoon while also very slowly/slightly lowering
in height. MVFR conditions look likely at all sites parts of the
day with the most persistent lower cigs at EVV/OWB and
vicinity. They should clear out west of EVV/OWB by sunset which
may allow for some ground fog in the early morning as the winds
slacken around CGI and vicinity. An improvement to full VFR is
currently forecast for Saturday morning at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...JGG