886
FXUS63 KPAH 292230
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
530 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and gusty south winds are expected
  through Wednesday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread across the region
  late Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday. Rain tapers
  off from the northwest to southeast late Thursday afternoon
  into Thursday evening.

- Dry and near seasonal temperatures expected for Friday, with a
  warming trend over the weekend.

- Chances of rain return to the forecast for late in the weekend
  associated with a more unsettled weather pattern.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 527 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Surface and upper level ridging in firm control of our weather
today with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rising into the
low 80s. A broad and strong upper trough is situated over the
western Rocky Mountain region and the resulting pressure
gradient is leading to relatively brisk south winds - with this
general pattern expected to hold through tomorrow.

Drier air circling around the southwest periphery of the ridge
is expected to mix down tomorrow afternoon. This will lead to
afternoon minimum RH values in the 40% range, which coupled with
the south winds will be approaching elevated brushfire
conditions. Part of the trough to the west then breaks off and
heads in this general direction generating a surface low over
the western Great Lakes region shoving a cold front to the east
over the area. This should lead to fairly widespread stratiform
rain ahead of the front on Thursday, with some embedded shower
and thunderstorm activity. Low and deep layer shear is fairly
good but very poor mid-level lapse rates and relatively cool
surface temperatures look to limit any real severe thunderstorm
potential. Rainfall amounts have held in the half inch to one
inch range for the last several runs of deterministic and
ensemble guidance - and that looks reasonable for the pattern.
Timing for Trick-or-Treat activities is a bit tricky as there is
a fair chance our northwestern counties dry up by sunset but
areas of southwest KY and IN may have some lingering stratiform
rain into the evening. Cooler temperatures then filter into the
region and stay in place through Friday.

Stronger troughing then digs in to the central Plains and
return flow begins to move back into the area, warming up
temperatures and raising dewpoints. This builds in some
convective instability so after Sunday at least some chance of
afternoon showers builds up, but the broader pattern suggests we
will be more dry than not through at least Monday.

The 12z deterministic GFS has a fairly provocative looking upper
trough over the central Plains and Rocky mountain region Monday
into Tuesday where the ECMWF is a little more positively
tilted, but still fairly robust. The differences in the jet
pattern lead to appreciable differences in the synoptic
situation for the region and obviously rainfall/thunderstorm
potential. Ensemble members at that range show, as you might
expect, quite a spread and there really doesn`t appear to be any
one camp to bite off on for now. So will keep the fairly
modest, but present NBM pops in place and continue to watch for
the evolution of the trough which for now looks to place most,
if any concentrated action well to our northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

With high pressure anchoring to our east, and low pressure
approaching from our west, the terminals will see a continued
gradient for southerlies, including gusts into the 20s kts
during the daytime tmrw (similar to today). Time/height cross
sections continue with a dry column, though a FEW CU may occur
under some SCT high clouds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$