703
FXUS63 KPAH 071709
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Narrow potential for some severe storms along the MO/TN border
  this morning and afternoon but the bulk of the severe storms
  are expected to stay south.

- Any thunderstorms that do form today will continue to contain
  heavy rainfall posing some risk for flash flooding given the
  amount of rain many places have already received.

- More shower/storm chances Sunday night but it looks fairly
  benign for now.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Another shortwave is working over the southern Plains tonight
and is on track to move overhead by about 18-21z today. The
effective front/area demarcating more stable air from more
unstable air is well to the south in Arkansas and Mississippi.
This front will trek northward somewhat but the general
consensus is that it may struggle to make it this far north
today. Our southern counties remain on at least a periphery of a
zone that could see stronger convection but the trend is pretty
overwhelmingly that most of it stays to our south. Wind would
be the main concern in the event of overachieving heating or
moisture advection. For now though convective blowoff clouds
look pretty likely to dominate the early morning and this wave
is again coming in a little too fast to utilize ideal heating.
Rain and scattered thunderstorms appear the most likely with the
PoPs highest along the MO/AR and KY/TN border today. A surface
cold front moves in on the southern periphery of a weak surface
low forming up over IL/IN which will likely keep at least a few
showers stirred up through Saturday evening.

After that it looks like we stay fairly dry til Sunday evening
when another shortwave stirs things up a little. The moisture
return/destabilization ahead of this looks very limited and our
risk for severe weather appears low. We dry out again behind
this front and stay warm but not exceptionally hot or humid
through Wednesday when we start to see a little moisture return
and shower chances start to creep up. The synoptic signal gets
strongest for rain or thunderstorms on Friday but its not
exceptionally impressive for severe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Light to moderate rain showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunderstorm from a thunderstorms complex across NW TN will
push across the area this afternoon. Dry weather will follow
overnight into Sunday morning. Periods of MVFR cigs will lift to
VFR with the onset of rain, but vsbys may see brief MVFR
reductions. Addition low VFR to MVFR cigs will develop after the
03-06z Sunday window. Light southerly winds will become W-NW
overnight as a frontal boundary shifts east of the region.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS