Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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886 FXUS63 KPAH 292230 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 530 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures and gusty south winds are expected through Wednesday. - Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread across the region late Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday. Rain tapers off from the northwest to southeast late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. - Dry and near seasonal temperatures expected for Friday, with a warming trend over the weekend. - Chances of rain return to the forecast for late in the weekend associated with a more unsettled weather pattern. && .UPDATE... Issued at 527 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Surface and upper level ridging in firm control of our weather today with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rising into the low 80s. A broad and strong upper trough is situated over the western Rocky Mountain region and the resulting pressure gradient is leading to relatively brisk south winds - with this general pattern expected to hold through tomorrow. Drier air circling around the southwest periphery of the ridge is expected to mix down tomorrow afternoon. This will lead to afternoon minimum RH values in the 40% range, which coupled with the south winds will be approaching elevated brushfire conditions. Part of the trough to the west then breaks off and heads in this general direction generating a surface low over the western Great Lakes region shoving a cold front to the east over the area. This should lead to fairly widespread stratiform rain ahead of the front on Thursday, with some embedded shower and thunderstorm activity. Low and deep layer shear is fairly good but very poor mid-level lapse rates and relatively cool surface temperatures look to limit any real severe thunderstorm potential. Rainfall amounts have held in the half inch to one inch range for the last several runs of deterministic and ensemble guidance - and that looks reasonable for the pattern. Timing for Trick-or-Treat activities is a bit tricky as there is a fair chance our northwestern counties dry up by sunset but areas of southwest KY and IN may have some lingering stratiform rain into the evening. Cooler temperatures then filter into the region and stay in place through Friday. Stronger troughing then digs in to the central Plains and return flow begins to move back into the area, warming up temperatures and raising dewpoints. This builds in some convective instability so after Sunday at least some chance of afternoon showers builds up, but the broader pattern suggests we will be more dry than not through at least Monday. The 12z deterministic GFS has a fairly provocative looking upper trough over the central Plains and Rocky mountain region Monday into Tuesday where the ECMWF is a little more positively tilted, but still fairly robust. The differences in the jet pattern lead to appreciable differences in the synoptic situation for the region and obviously rainfall/thunderstorm potential. Ensemble members at that range show, as you might expect, quite a spread and there really doesn`t appear to be any one camp to bite off on for now. So will keep the fairly modest, but present NBM pops in place and continue to watch for the evolution of the trough which for now looks to place most, if any concentrated action well to our northwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 527 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 With high pressure anchoring to our east, and low pressure approaching from our west, the terminals will see a continued gradient for southerlies, including gusts into the 20s kts during the daytime tmrw (similar to today). Time/height cross sections continue with a dry column, though a FEW CU may occur under some SCT high clouds. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$