320
FXUS63 KPAH 312156
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
456 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler and far less humid conditions are forecast Friday
  through the weekend. A small chance for a shower or storm may
  return across part of west KY on Sunday.

- Temperatures remain below normal early next week, due to an
  abundance of clouds and daily rain chances (30-40%).

- Typical summer-time heat and humidity may return mid to late
  next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 453 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

The cold front has cleared much of the region and is draped down
near the KY/TN border early this afternoon. A line of scattered
convection has developed along it, with most of this activity likely
south of our border by 20z. The drier air is slowly funneling into
the region, but dew points remain in the low to mid 70s even behind
the front. The true relief lies just north of our border and this
will sink south across our cwa through the evening and overnight.

Friday and Saturday continue to look like spectacular days with much
lower humidity (dew points ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s)
and highs only reaching the lower 80s. It will almost feel like
early Fall waking up Saturday and Sunday morning to lows in the
58-64 range!

A shortwave trough will dive into the central CONUS Sunday and pivot
slowly across our cwa Mon/Tues before sliding just east by Wed. This
will provide chances of showers and storms Monday and Tuesday,
possibly lingering into Wednesday in the east. Beforehand, moisture
to our southeast may lift back northwest on Sunday afternoon leading
to some scattered convection across mainly the KY Pennyrile.

Temperatures look to remain below normal through at least next
Tuesday before upper level heights rise as the trough shifts east.
The ridge over the Desert Southwest may try to amplify into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley Wednesday through late next week. This would allow
temperatures to rebound back to or above 90 degrees. Humidity levels
look to be on par with more typical summer-time levels with dew
points only in the lower 70s (compared to the 75-80 we`ve been
dealing with). Flow aloft may also remain somewhat northwesterly
along the periphery of the ridge, keeping it somewhat unsettled
later next week into the weekend of August 9-10.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 453 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Fropa has occurred but restricted bases, even cigs, may linger
overnight into Friday as the cooler/drier air settles in/across
the flight terminals. High pressure from the north takes over,
so north to northeast gusts may come into play, certainly by and
during the planning phase hours of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT Friday night for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$