Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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718 FXUS63 KPAH 091854 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1254 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will increase tonight into Sunday, before their departure Sunday PM. Upwards to 2 inches storm total rainfall is possible over portions of southern Kentucky, with lesser amounts to the northwest. - Seasonally mild temperatures with 60s and 70s covers the entirety of the forecast, with the next chance of rain incoming by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 A low pressure storm system will lift from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes by this time tomorrow. There is enough moisture (ample), instability (minimal), and lift (moderate) to keep our slight chance of thunder mention, but the primary consideration is rainfall. Up to 2 inches of storm total rainfall is still a possibility for portions of southern Ky, with the heaviest banding late tonight into early Sunday morning. Lesser amounts, even to minimal amounts, are possible further northwest. The system continues to lift and trek to the east and northeast with time, as high pressure fills in its wake. This will draw in drier air and end our pops west-to-east late tmrw pm/evening. With a zonal flow, there is no exceptionally "cold" airmass incoming with the high, so max temperatures will actually rebound into the lower 70s tmrw as things clear out. We go a little more northerly with the flow around the high early in the work week, so nighttime temps cool down to the 40s and the diurnal rebound yields a returns highs in the 60s, but they still run seasonal or even a little above seasonal norms leading to our next chance of pcpn incoming by mid week. It`s a quick mid week system passage with dry conditions returning and seasonally mild temperatures continuing to finish out the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Time/height cross sections show a dry lower tropospheric column that will gradually saturate as the approaching storm system nears and ultimately makes its passage. We`ll see bases deteriorate into/thru restricted categories as top-down saturation of the column continues through tonight, with associated/increasing shower activity likewise producing VSBY restrictions. By late tonight, Instrument Flight Rules CIGS are forecast with Marginal Visual Flight Rules VSBYS, although further restrictions are possible in heavier showers. The thunder risk is low enough to preclude from terminal mention, but it is not zero. The system clears the 2nd half of the day tmrw from the northwest, so expect maybe only KMVN seeing bases scatter to VFR by the close of the 18Z forecast. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$