716
FXUS63 KPAH 292338
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
538 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another wave of dangerously cold Arctic air will move into the
  region tonight. There is a 50-80% chance of sub-zero wind
  chills over southwest Indiana, and much of southern Illinois
  and southeast Missouri by daybreak Friday. By daybreak
  Saturday morning the chance is virtually 100% throughout the
  Quad State. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued
  from 12 AM to 12 PM Saturday.

- A band of flurries or light snow is expected to accompany the
  leading edge of the Arctic air, mainly over the northeast half
  of the Quad State from late this evening through Friday
  morning. There is now a 20-50% of minor accumulations perhaps
  coating the existing snowpack.

- Isolated snow showers will be possible throughout the area
  late Friday night. Over most of the Quad State this will
  amount to only flurries, but there is a 20% chance of a light
  dusting of new snow over portions of west Kentucky.

- While confidence is low, there is some potential (30-50%) of
  a light wintry mix impacting the region Tuesday night into
  next Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

The greatest concern for this forecast package will be
dangerously cold wind chills expected throughout the Quad State
Friday night into Saturday morning. Sub-zero wind chills may
reach northern portions of the region by daybreak Friday, but
ensemble guidance has a nearly 100% chance of the entire region
reaching Cold Advisory levels late Friday night through
Saturday morning. Confidence is high enough that we issued a
Cold Weather Advisory from 06Z-18Z Saturday. It looks like we
should stay above criteria late tonight into Friday morning and
late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Guidance is in general agreement in a band of light snow or
flurries moving southeast across the northeast half of the Quad
State beginning in the late evening along I-64 in southern
Illinois and continuing into Friday morning over the Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky. There is a 20-50% chance of measurable
snow that would provide a light coating on top of the existing
snowpack. The best chance will be over the Pennyrile Friday
morning. Given the current state of travel across the region,
little impact is expected.

A large upper trough will rotate southward over the Quad State
Friday night. Isolated light snow showers will be possible, but
the chance of measurable snow is 20% or less. A few locations
may receive an additional dusting, but no impacts are expected.

An upper-level disturbance will move eastward into the Great
Lakes Sunday night into Monday, the general consensus is that
any associated precipitation will remain north of the area, but
the northern half of the region still has a 20-30% chance of
another light dusting of snow Sunday night. Once again, no
impacts are expected.

The "best" chance of substantial precipitation will be late
Tuesday through Wednesday, but it is not that great either.
Disturbances in the northern and southern flows will attempt to
phase together over the Mississippi Valley, which creates
considerable uncertainty in any precipitation, let alone
precipitation type. Warm advection seems to be the primary
forcing mechanism which could result in much of the region
climbing above freezing whether snow, sleet, or rain falls.
However, the 12Z ECENS keeps temperatures at or below freezing,
so at this point there is a "chance" of some more tangible
wintry precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday. We will keep an
eye on it.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Guidance had been hinting at an MVFR deck near KPAH/KCGI late
this afternoon and evening, but it hasn`t yet materialized and
have low confidence on it occurring. Main impact to terminals
tonight appears to be a band of light snow that develops and
pivots south later this evening and into Friday morning.
KEVV/KOWB appear to be the most likely terminals to be impacted
by possible vsby reductions. Can`t rule out some MVFR cigs for a
short while, but tend to think we largely stay VFR. Light
northeast winds tonight will pick up out of the north after
daybreak to around 10 kts with some gusts to 15 kts, especially
at KCGI/KPAH. Finally, there is some potential at MVFR cigs
developing later in the day at northern terminals so included
TEMPO mention for now

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST
     Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST
     Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight CST /1 AM EST/ Friday
     night to noon CST /1 PM EST/ Saturday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST
     Saturday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SP