186
FXUS63 KPAH 121048
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
548 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will accompany a cold frontal passage
  through early Friday morning. The overall severe threat is
  fairly low, but a few stronger storms could produce pockets of
  damaging winds along with brief heavy rainfall.

- After a brief break from the humidity on Friday, soupy
  conditions return Saturday afternoon and may linger into
  Sunday. Another round of showers and storms appears likely
  Saturday into Saturday night, and this may linger into at
  least the first half of Sunday. Severe storms and flash
  flooding are possible with this system.

- Early next week is trending cooler and less humid. There is a
  70- 90% chance at dew points remaining below 60 degrees on
  Monday and Tuesday! This appears short-lived though as higher
  humidity and warmer temperatures look to return later in the
  week. Rain chances return Wednesday into Thursday as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms stretches from Michigan
southeastward into northeastern Oklahoma late this evening, with
coverage more broken in nature from Saint Louis and points
southwest. The convection will sneak into our northwestern counties
around 05z or shortly thereafter and then gradually sink
southeastward across the Quad State through 12z Friday. Have already
noticed a weakening trend with the storms and this should continue
into the overnight. However, we still have 1000-2000 j/kg of MLCAPE
to work with which combined with at least modest shear of 25-30 kts
may lead to a few storms intensifying to severe levels with
primarily a damaging wind threat (DCAPE over 1000 j/kg). Not
really expecting a flooding threat as the line should be
progressive enough, but can`t rule out a localized concern.

Northerly winds usher in drier air through the day on Friday with
dew points falling into the 50s and low 60s. It might take until
late in the day or evening to work into portions of west KY though.
The frontal boundary that sinks south of our area on Friday will
return north on Saturday, with a return of dew points in the low to
mid 70s. Models also are advertising a shortwave progressing across
Missouri into our area on Saturday which will kick off showers and
storms. We may have some ongoing convection early Saturday morning
into midday, most likely in our western cwa. Additional storms seem
likely to fire up at some point during the afternoon or evening and
we may have an MCS dive southeastward across the region at some
point through Saturday night. We should have the instability
gradient situated over us along with respectable shear to lead to a
severe storm threat. Pwats look quite high as well (over 2") and it
appears training convection will be a concern which would pose a
flash flooding risk. Certainly looks a bit more concerning for both
severe and flooding then it did 24 hours ago, so we will see if
that trend continues.

We may have some convection linger into Sunday morning before drier
air works through the region by afternoon. LREF continues to paint
high probabilities (70-90%) at dew points below 60 on Monday and
Tuesday. There is also a very high probability (90-95%) of high
temperatures remaining below 80 on Monday. Temperatures will begin
to warm up again mid next week along with higher humidity returning.
Seems to be a decent signal for another chance for rain by next
Wednesday into Thursday as well. Noticed the LREF probabilities
for high temps reaching 90 degrees are below 40% every day
through the end of next week, so at least we keep the heat in
check.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A band of showers and thunderstorms, will continue sinking
south out of our area by mid morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions
are expected. Winds will be out of the NNW today, generally
around 4-7 kts, before becoming light tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP