054
FXUS64 KOUN 311738
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

 - One more day of lingering heat and humidity in southern
   Oklahoma this afternoon.

 - Cold front continues to move across the area today with cooler
   temperatures and storm chances behind it.

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms expected from tonight
   through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

An outflow boundary had made it to the Red River early this morning
with the cold front lagging behind it. The cold front continues to
slowly move S/SE across the fa this morning. The front is expected
to be in the Red River Valley area later this afternoon. Models show
scattered showers/storms developing near and north of the front this
afternoon into this evening. Widespread severe weather is not
expected but a few storms could get strong enough to produce gusty
winds. The storm activity could decrease later this evening but
models/CAMs show additional showers/storms developing overnight in
central/southern OK near the elevated front. This activity is
expected to continue into Friday. Locally heavy rain that may lead
to flooding in some areas will be possible with any storms later
this afternoon into tonight with models forecasting PWATs of over
1.75" with some areas over 2".

With the cold front still moving across the area, hot and humid
conditions will be possible ahead of the front, especially in SE
parts of the fa where dewpoints are the highest. Warmer temperatures
combined with moisture potentially pooling ahead of the front, heat
index values of 105 or greater will be possible. A heat advisory
continues for SE parts of the area through 0Z.

For the rest of the area, cooler temperatures are expected behind
the front with highs generally in the 80s this afternoon. Cooler
temperatures are expected for much of the fa tonight with lows in
the mid 60s in NW OK to the low/mid 70s along the Red River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Periodic rain chances will continue into Friday into Saturday. As
for Saturday night, NW flow aloft and storms developing in the High
Plains will bring a chance for an MCS to move across parts of the fa
Saturday night.

With the cooler airmass moving into the area behind the front, a
more pleasant day is expected Friday at least in the terms of
temperatures. Below normal temperatures are expected tomorrow
afternoon with highs in the 80s to around 90 along the Red River.
Lows Friday night will range from the mid 60s to around 70. The
cooler temperatures at least compared to the last week or so will
continue into Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s and lows
in the mid 60s to low 70s. The warmest temperatures Saturday looks
like it will be in SW parts of the fa.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

The ridge will be resurgent across the southern Rockies beginning on
Sunday. A belt of rather strong northwesterly flow is expected to
extend from the northern High Plains into Texas on the eastern
periphery of this ridge. Temperatures will begin to increase across
the Caprock and adjacent portions of the Red River Valley nearer the
ridge. The environment on Sunday evening looks like it could yield
more vigorous storms than the likes we have seen over the last week -
 effective northwesterly shear could reach 50-70 knots with plenty
of instability and downdraft potential. We`ll have to watch that
very closely.

We`ll continue to have northwesterly to northerly winds aloft with
at least some (25-40 knot) magnitudes from Monday to Wednesday. This
would seem to lend itself toward the notion that we will see more
chances for storms. However, global guidance (and NBM from it) is
cueing in more on the idea of drier weather and another heat wave
beginning by the middle of next week. It remains to be seen if this
is a real signal or a byproduct of the warm/overmixed bias of global
models during North American summer, but uncertainty in the extended
range is high for this time of year.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Intervals of varied category (VFR or MVFR) are expected across
the region through the period, especially across northern and
central Oklahoma. The most persistent period of reduced category,
due to stratus, is expected after 08 UTC on Friday morning.

Scattered rain/thunder is expected across portions of Oklahoma and
north Texas this afternoon and again by early Friday morning.
PROB30 mentions have been added to account for this potential.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  84  69  88 /  20  20  10  20
Hobart OK         69  89  68  92 /  30  20  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  73  91  71  94 /  30  30  10  10
Gage OK           65  84  64  88 /  20  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     68  83  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
Durant OK         75  91  73  89 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-042-043-047-
     048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09