826
FXUS64 KOUN 060445
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Episodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning this
  evening and continuing through the weekend. Severe weather will
  be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Complex of storms across northern half of Oklahoma will continue to
push slowly east into eastern parts of the state this morning. Some
strong storms may be possible. Should see a short break from late
morning into midday beore additional convection will be possible
along residual boundaries from morning storms. A few of these could
become severe as we get some breaks in the cloud cover and
instability increases with daytime heating.

Expect a similar scenario tonight as what occurred last night as
storms develop across High Plains to our west and northwest and then
translate east and southeast across the area this evening and
overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, but some
hail and in isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Another round of
heavy rainfall will also be possible, perhaps slightly farther south
than previous night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Again some lingering convection appears possible Saturday morning.
Otherwise, an upper shortwave will drop southeast through the
northern/central Plains into the mid-MS valley which will drive a
surface cold front south through the area. Convection is expected to
develop along this bounadary across southern Oklahoma. Again severe
storms and heavy rainfall will be possible. This complex will then
move southeast into the Arklatx Sunday morning.

Upper pattern shifts to more of a northwest flow regime Sunday.
Another High Plains complex is expected to develop and roll
southeast through the Texas panhandle toward southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Upper ridge may shift further east into the Plains by late Monday
into Tuesday with main area of convection shifting south of the
area, at least for a short time. Potential for a return to weak
southwest flow does exist by late in the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A storm complex is developing along the Kansas / Oklahoma border
and is expected to surge southeastward overnight into the morning
through most of the forecast area. Reduced visibilities and
erratic gusty winds can be expected near thunderstorms. Low
stratus is also expected by morning. Ceilings should lift by
Friday afternoon.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  69  86  68 /  70  80  60  70
Hobart OK         82  66  90  67 /  70  70  40  60
Wichita Falls TX  83  72  93  72 /  60  30  20  30
Gage OK           80  61  82  62 /  30  90  20  90
Ponca City OK     78  66  84  65 /  20  90  30  80
Durant OK         85  73  91  75 /  20  40  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for OKZ004>020-024>026.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14