612
FXUS64 KOUN 131057
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
557 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected through this weekend.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
  across western Oklahoma into western north Texas on Thursday
  afternoon with a low chance for dry lightning thunderstorms.

- There is an increasing chance for showers/storms this weekend
  and especially early next week, including the potential for
  severe weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Upper ridging will continue to build in over the Southern Plains
originating from a heat dome currently baking the Southwestern U.S.
Meanwhile down at the surface a weather system digging through the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region will be pushing a weak dry cold
front into our area this morning before washing or stalling out. The
surface high behind the front shifts into the MO-ARK Region this
afternoon with easterly winds blowing from the Midwest keeping much
of our area unseasonably warm with afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 80s. However most of southwest Oklahoma and adjacent western
north Texas will be hotter staying south of the front with hotter
air circulated in from a surface low east of the New Mexico Rockies.
As a result much of our southwest CWA will heat well into the lower
to mid 90s.  Although much of our area should stay capped, forecast
soundings suggest diurnal heating eroding the cap across southwest
Oklahoma and westward to the Caprock where a severe risk will be.
RRFS and CAMs suggesting some of the convection firing up over the
Caprock may move into our southwest and decaying.  As a result have
low storm POP across parts of our southwest CWA toward early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

For tonight, have added low storm POPs across parts of northern
Oklahoma for a potential of high-based elevated convection triggered
by a series of shortwave disturbances embedded within the upper
ridge as its axis moves across our area.

Thursday may be more active with strong gusty winds, more widespread
heat, fire weather across our west, and a very low chance for severe
thunderstorms across our north.  Our upper ridge starts to break
down to a weak trough across our area.  Down at the surface a broad
weak dryline will set up across our west with the stronger sharper
dryline across the western TX/OK Panhandles.  A surface low develops
lee of the Colorado Rockies tightening our pressure gradient while
lifting a warm front through our area with gusty south winds
sustained 25 mph.  Strong late morning mixing at least through 850
mb could produce 30-45 mph gusts. Certainly a Wind Advisory could be
possible across parts of our area.  As far as fire weather,
afternoon RH values behind the broad dry line along with the heat
and gusty winds will result in Elevated to Near Critical fire risks
across western Oklahoma into a small portions of northern TX.
Diurnal heating will be more widespread on Thursday with much of the
western half of our CWA well in the 90s.  A shortwave propagating
through our eroding ridge could initiate convection off the Southern
High Plains moving into western Oklahoma late Thursday afternoon
into the evening.  Our hottest temperatures will be on Friday with
90s generally along and west of the I-35 corridor.  We could also
see both record warmest highs and warmest lows with many areas only
falling to around 70 degrees Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Still have severe thunderstorm risks for this weekend as a sharp
dryline makes advances to our western CWA both afternoon. Increasing
low-level moisture transport ahead of the dryline will result in
stronger destabilization in our area for potential severe storm
activity.  An upper trough over the Southwestern U.S. could expel a
series of shortwaves downstream across the Southern Plains further
enhancing storm activity.  Probabilities for storms Saturday is
still low although they increase up to 30% late Sunday with a strong
warm advection pattern as the approaching trough deepens becoming
more longwave pushing a strong cold front through our area around
Monday night.  As a result storm POPs will be increasing 50% late
Monday into Tuesday as we`ll be trending "wetter" early next week.
Still hot especially across our western CWA with a cooldown early
next week behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Light winds this morning will gradually pick up from the east and
then southeast overnight. Perhaps a few afternoon cumulus and some
mid clouds expected today into tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  63  88  70 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         93  65  95  68 /   0  20   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  94  65  95  69 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           88  63  96  63 /   0   0   0  20
Ponca City OK     82  58  88  69 /   0  20  10  10
Durant OK         87  63  88  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30