759
FXUS66 KOTX 122051
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
151 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
  Northeast Mountains into North Idaho through early evening.

- Friday: Dry and breezy Okanogan Valley with elevated fire
  weather conditions through early evening

- Warming well above normal over the weekend into early next
  week. Minor HeatRisk into the weekend and increasing threat
  for moderate HeatRisk Monday into Tuesday.

- Tuesday: Very warm and dry conditions and gusty westerly winds with
  a dry cold front passage will bring the potential for
  critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm above normal through the weekend into
next week. The warm up will be muted on Friday with a low
pressure system clipping the northeast portion of the region.
The weather system will bring breezy northerly winds down the
Okanogan Valley along with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms primarily over the mountains of northeast
Washington into North Idaho. Then a strong ridge of high
pressure brings warmer temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Fire
weather will be a concern Tuesday with warm, dry conditions and
gusty westerly winds with a cold front passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A mid level wave dropping into NE Washington and the ID
Panhandle will continue to promote scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms through early this evening. A dry low
level air mass initially with temperature-dewpoint spreads of
25-35F will contribute to enhanced downdrafts from the
convection with brief gusts of 30-40 MPH. Storms will be also
capable of producing pea sized hail and brief downpours. A
combination of the mid level wave exiting North Idaho this
evening and loss of daytime heating will lead to a quick end to
the convection after sunset with clearing skies overnight. This
wave has also ushered in breezy north winds down the Okanogan
Valley, which combined with warm temperatures and low relative
humidity will lead to continued elevated fire weather conditions
into the early evening.

Saturday: The flow aloft turns northerly as an upper ridge
builds off the coast. Another mid level wave is progged by the
models to clip north Idaho, but is not as strong as the wave
that went through today. Still, there is just enough boundary
layer moisture and afternoon instability for a 20 percent chance
of afternoon showers over the mountains of the ID Panhandle.

Sunday and Monday: An upper ridge moves over the region
providing warmer temperatures and dry conditions. High
temperatures increase into the 80s on Sunday, and then mid 80s
to mid 90s on Monday.

Tuesday: A dry cold front passage will lead to at least
elevated, if not critical, fire weather conditions in dry grass
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin.
The NBM has trended towards more cooling in Central Washington
(5-10 degrees cooler compared to Monday) while Eastern
Washington and North Idaho experience similar temperatures.
Temperatures in the 80s to low 90s combined with low relative
humidity are forecast. The ECMWF ensemble mean has been pretty
consistent with wind gusts of 30-40 MPH, locally up to 45 MPH
along the East Slopes into the Columbia Basin, West Plains, and
Palouse.

Wednesday through Friday: Drier air behind the front from
Tuesday lingers over the region supporting dry conditions for
Wednesday and Thursday along with high temperatures cooling into
the mid 70s to mid 80s. On Friday an upper trough nosing closer
to the region will bring a 20 percent chance of showers to the
northern mountains otherwise dry conditions are expected to
prevail. JW


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: Building cumulus over the northern mountains today
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing
near 20z. This activity will drop southward during the
afternoon/evening hours toward KGEG/KSFF/KCOE between 22z-02z.
Gusty outflow winds and short bursts of heavy rain will be the
primary hazards with these showers/tstms before they begin to
dissipate. Outflow wind gusts of 25-35 kts are possible for
these airports, but too low of confidence on which hour or
airport to be impacted to include in TAF forecast.

Following the shower activity, winds will decrease and turn more
north-northeast with the exception of KEAT which will remain
northwest. VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the TAF
period except for brief restrictions in showers or thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 30
percent chance of showers, and a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms impacting KGEG/KSFF/KCOE between 22z-02z. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        47  77  49  83  54  87 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  47  75  49  81  54  85 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  75  47  79  49  85 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       51  83  52  86  56  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       42  79  45  85  52  88 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      45  74  48  81  52  84 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        45  74  47  81  52  84 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     52  84  54  89  57  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  84  60  89  64  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           51  84  55  90  60  93 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$