657
FXUS66 KOTX 312148
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered, wet and dry thunderstorms through the afternoon
  and scattered, wet thunderstorms on Friday.

- Heavy rainfall, hail, gusty winds and lightning main threats
  for the afternoons today and Friday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
tonight. Friday will be similar to Thursday but begin to trend
cooler. Showers and cooler weather expected through the start of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The shortwave will continue to press
North and the region will begin to stabilize behind it overnight.
Nocturnal instability can still be strong overnight to bring
isolated thunderstorms as Surface Based Cape continues to be a
couple hundred of Joules. A cooling trend starts Friday with
highs being around 10 degrees cooler. It will keep the
instability lower than Thursday. By Friday afternoon, the
threat increases again throughout the region, with the axis of
the shortwave lifting directly across the region. The best
chance Thunderstorm chances Friday will be greatest in northeast
Washington and north Idaho (40-60% chance). Heading into the
evening the chances start to wane from the southwest and the
higher potential shifts toward the northeast mountains
overnight.

A red flag warning out from through 8 PM Thursday for abundant
lightning in portions of central and northern WA. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms combined with dry fuels may lead to new
fire starts and the gusty outflow winds may cause rapid fire
spread. The expected QPF has increased from previous runs. It
has possible rates of an inch an hour. It is creating flash
flood potential for the area burn scars over Northern
Washington. The Burn Scar flash flood watch will continue
through the evening. /JDC

Saturday to Wednesday: The area remains unsettled throughout
the period. Another weak shortwave shifts across the region
Saturday into Sunday, keeping the threat of showers and some
t-storms over some of the region. The best potential will be
over the north and eastern CWA, with only limited chances
elsewhere. PWATs drop to around 60-100% of normal, so the
potential for heavier rain will be less. Additional shortwaves
move in between Monday and Wednesday, the most potent of which
looks to come by around late Monday/early Tuesday. Some moisture
comes in with it, but the better instability is on the fringes
of the CWA. Overall the best chances will be around the
mountains these periods, but we will have to watch that stronger
shortwave should it track further north or have more
instability. Temperatures will be closer to normal Saturday and
Sunday with 80s to mid-90s, then drop below normal for Monday to
Wednesday, with upper 70s and 80s. Wind will be occasionally
breezy in the afternoon/evening with gusts near 15-20 mph and
locally higher near the Cascade gaps in the evenings. Overall
however wind and RH values are expected to be above any critical
fire weather thresholds. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Aviation concern today will be scattered showers and
thunderstorms with high bases producing gusty, erratic strong
wind gusts. Any storm of cluster of storms will produce outflow
winds generally with speeds of 20kt and gusts to 40kts. Under
precip cores, frequent lightning and small hail also possible.
Loose agreement in the models suggest isolated cells developing
in the northern mountains around 1 PM. Meanwhile, a wave lifting
in from the south will bring a band of convection and outflow
initiating new cells chaotically across the Basin through
afternoon and into the early evening. As such, thinking an
outflow boundary from the south between 12PM - 3PM then and as
new cells develop, direction of winds will come from a myriad of
directions. The initial activity will wane 07PM - 09PM then
another organized band of showers and storms expected to arrive
from the southeast around Lewiston- Pullman 07PM - 09PM
renewing outflow winds and threat for showers and storms going
into the overnight periods.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in high based cells with largely VFR cigs through the TAF
period. Low confidence for individual timing of thunderstorms,
wind direction, and wind gusts each hour, especially between
03PM - 08PM. 30-40% chance for local MVFR from reduced
visibility under rain/hail cores. /sb

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        63  85  62  88  60  88 /  40  40  50  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  86  62  86  59  87 /  50  50  60  40  10  10
Pullman        58  81  57  85  54  85 /  60  40  40  20  10  10
Lewiston       70  91  67  94  65  93 /  60  50  40  20   0  10
Colville       53  87  53  86  51  87 /  40  50  60  50  10  10
Sandpoint      58  82  57  81  55  85 /  40  60  70  60  20  10
Kellogg        64  81  64  82  61  84 /  50  60  60  50  10  10
Moses Lake     66  90  62  93  58  90 /  40  30  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      71  90  67  92  65  90 /  40  40  20  10   0  10
Omak           67  91  65  93  63  92 /  40  50  50  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North Cascades
     National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone
     697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone
     704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-
     Okanogan Valley (Zone 703).
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Western
     Okanogan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$