053
FXUS66 KOTX 012226
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild through Tuesday.

- Mountain snow, lowland rain, and breezy conditions Tuesday
  night through Thursday

- Light mountain snow showers Friday into the weekend with
  increasing winds over the weekend

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain mild through Tuesday. Active weather
returns Tuesday night into Wednesday, with mountain snow,
lowland rain, and breezy winds. This will bring periods of
winter travel conditions over the mountain passes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight - Tuesday: High pressure over the region through Monday
will deliver light winds, mild temperatures, and an abundance
of sunshine. Nights will be cool but the dry air will allow
afternoon temperatures to rebound into the 40s-50s. A weak
system approaches the region Tuesday with clouds increasing over
Central WA through the afternoon. Southerly winds will pick up
through the afternoon with gusts 20-25 mph across the open wheat
country, Okanogan Valley, and Palouse. The increased mixing
will yield the warmest day of the week pushing temperatures into
the mid 50s. Areas of the lower Basin and along the
Snake/Clearwater River valleys will likely reach 60F or warmer
(60-80% chance).

Tuesday night - Friday: There is high confidence for a series of
Pacific troughs to pass through the region bringing increasing
mountain snow, lowland rain, and breezy conditions.
Precipitation will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday with
the arrival of the first trough Mountains will start off as rain
then there is a 80% chance for rain to switch to snow for
Stevens Pass by sunrise Wednesday. The cooler air will be slower
to reach Lookout Pass with the transition occurring after
sunset Wednesday evening. Once snow begins, snow showers are
expected to persist on and off at these passes through Friday
morning. Over the 48 hour period, 50% of the ensemble members
reside within the 6-11 inch range for Stevens Pass with the 90th
percentile at 14 inches. At Lookout Pass, 50% of the members
fall within 3-5 inches with the 90th percentile at 7 inches. It
goes without saying, motorists should be prepared for winter
travel conditions.

In the lowlands, the heaviest axis of heaviest rainfall will set
up over the Idaho Panhandle and through southeastern WA. 48
hour rainfall amounts (Tue Night-Thursday Night) are on the
order of 0.20-0.50 inches with local pockets just shy of 0.65
inches. There will be too much westerly flow to deliver much
rainfall in the lee of the Cascades, western Basin, and Okanogan
Country where projected QPF amounts will be less than a tenth
of an inch. Consequently, Loup Loup and Sherman will receive
light snow amounts. With the arrival of the cold pool aloft on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, there remains a 8-15% chance
for a few lightning strikes over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern
third of WA. The highest probabilities show up between 4-10PM
is not real favorable for lightning this time of year but
something we will be monitoring. These low probabilities seem on
track given the positive tilt to the incoming trough (negative
tilt would be much more favorable). Steady rainfall for the
lowlands and mountains will transition to lighter showers
Thursday afternoon and by Friday only light mountain snow
showers continue.

Breezy west to southwest winds will be in place Wednesday and
Thursday with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts 25-35 mph. Locally
stronger wind gusts (35-45 mph) will impact the exposed
ridgetops of the Cascades and foothills of the Blue Mountains.

Saturday-Sunday: No wholesale changes with the projected midlevel
pattern going into the weekend featuring an ridge of high
pressure expanding inland from the Eastern Pacific and cooler
trough coming across the Gulf of AK and into western Canada. A
strengthening Polar jet will develop between these features and
exactly where this sets up, does come with moderate to high
uncertainty. Roughly 25% of the 100 member ensemble place the
jet north of the International border, 60% on the border, and
15% south of the border near the OR/WA stateline. Each scenario
presents an outcome of gusty winds (at least 25-35 mph);
outcomes with the jet along the international border have
potential for higher wind speeds and gusts (35-50 mph).
The evolution of this pattern is being closely monitored. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High level clouds passing through southern Washington
and the lower Idaho Panhandle, otherwise clear skies. VFR
conditions will prevail through Monday morning. Winds will be
light and variable with occasional speeds near 8kts at Moses
Lake and Coeur D Alene.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions. There is a low probability for a slight
increase in northerly winds through the Okanogan Valley
overnight into Monday morning with Omak reaching 10-12kts
13-17z.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        30  53  34  54  41  49 /   0   0   0   0  70  90
Coeur d`Alene  28  52  32  52  41  47 /   0   0   0  10  80 100
Pullman        28  50  34  54  41  47 /   0   0   0   0  80 100
Lewiston       36  56  36  58  44  52 /   0   0   0   0  70 100
Colville       27  54  31  49  38  48 /   0   0   0  10  60  90
Sandpoint      26  49  32  47  39  44 /   0   0   0  20  90 100
Kellogg        33  52  33  51  41  43 /   0   0   0  10  90 100
Moses Lake     28  56  34  57  40  56 /   0   0   0   0  30  40
Wenatchee      33  56  36  53  39  52 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Omak           30  54  35  51  39  52 /   0   0   0   0  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$