421
FGUS63 KKRF 202054
ESPOSG

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
117 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026

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**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS  ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL  ****

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IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  01/25/2026 - 04/25/2026

                            :       CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                            :       OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                            :             AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
             CATEGORICAL    :
          FLOOD STAGES (FT) :      MINOR        MODERATE        MAJOR
LOCATION  MINOR  MOD  MAJOR | HEFS  ESP  HS |HEFS  ESP  HS |HEFS  ESP  HS
--------  ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:LITTLE OSAGE R AT FULTON KS
FTNK1      22.0  25.0  30.0 |  44   11   25 | 40   10   15 | <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE OSAGE R AT HORTON MO 1N
HTNM7      41.0  45.0  50.0 |  56   23   69 | 11    5   10 | <5   <5   <5
:MARMATON R AT FT SCOTT KS NO.2
FSKK1      38.0  42.0  43.0 |   8    5   10 | <5   <5    6 | <5   <5    5
:MARMATON R AT NEVADA MO 2NW
NVDM7      20.0  26.0  31.0 |  51   47   66 | 26   15   23 |  6    5    6
:OSAGE R AT TABERVILLE MO
TBVM7      23.0  34.0  46.0 |  62    9   28 |  6   <5    5 | <5   <5   <5
:SAC R AT CAPLNGR MILLS MO 5N
CMZM7      16.0  19.0  28.0 |  35   17   51 | 31   13   36 |  5    5    7
:SOUTH GRAND R AT URICH MO 1S
URHM7      24.0  26.0  33.0 |  30   13   30 | 26   10   15 | <5   <5   <5
:BIG CR AT BLAIRSTOWN MO 1SW
BLRM7      20.0  23.0  36.0 |  77   83   88 | 61   43   57 | <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP  = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS   = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT   = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0125 Z DH12 /DC2601201917/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF

:            CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                 VALID PERIOD = 01/25/2026 - 04/25/2026

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:LITTLE OSAGE R
FTNK1       2.7/    4.1/    7.0/   19.7/   27.1/   28.0/   29.7/
HTNM7      28.2/   30.6/   35.3/   41.3/   43.7/   45.4/   48.1/

:MARMATON R
FSKK1       8.8/   12.7/   14.7/   20.5/   35.2/   37.1/   40.4/
NVDM7       3.5/    6.2/   12.8/   20.1/   26.9/   29.8/   33.1/

:OSAGE R
TBVM7      11.6/   14.5/   20.9/   24.0/   29.3/   31.4/   34.9/

:SAC R
CMZM7       5.6/    6.5/    9.1/   13.0/   20.2/   23.2/   28.4/

:SOUTH GRAND R
URHM7       5.3/    9.5/   15.4/   20.3/   26.5/   27.4/   30.4/

:BIG CR
BLRM7       9.7/   11.7/   21.1/   23.5/   25.4/   26.5/   27.8/
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0125 Z DH12 /DC2601201917/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF

:      CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:               VALID PERIOD = 01/25/2026 - 04/25/2026

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:LITTLE OSAGE R
FTNK1       2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/
HTNM7      26.7/   26.6/   26.4/   26.2/   25.6/   25.4/   25.4/

:MARMATON R
FSKK1       7.0/    6.9/    6.9/    6.8/    6.6/    6.3/    6.2/
NVDM7       2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.3/    2.1/    2.0/

:OSAGE R
TBVM7       7.8/    7.8/    7.8/    7.8/    7.7/    7.6/    7.3/

:SAC R
CMZM7       4.9/    4.9/    4.9/    4.9/    4.8/    4.8/    4.6/

:SOUTH GRAND R
URHM7       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/

:BIG CR
BLRM7       8.2/    8.2/    8.1/    8.1/    8.0/    8.0/    6.9/
.END

$$