339
FXUS61 KOKX 311925
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
325 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure travels along a slow moving frontal
boundary through Friday morning. High pressure builds in behind
the exiting system late Friday and remains in control through
the first half of next week. Unsettled weather may return by
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Points:

* A FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for the entire area until 8am
  Friday.

* Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible this afternoon
  into early tonight. A widespread 1.5-3 inches of rainfall is
  likely, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall rates could
  exceed 2+ inches across parts of the area.

* A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8pm tonight for NYC
  and portions of northeast New Jersey.

As of 3pm a stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the
area from just south of Union County, NJ through NYC and
extending eastward across the Long Island Sound into
southeastern Connecticut, with a wave of low pressure beginning
to take shape across the Delmarva. A complex of showers and
thunderstorms has developed across northeastern New Jersey and
is pushing eastward into NYC, with additional showers/storms
along the sea breeze across Long Island.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday morning, with the
heaviest rain expected to fall through around midnight. Rainfall
totals across the area will range from 1.5 to 3 inches, with
isolated amounts of up to 5 inches possible. Rainfall rates of
1-2 inches are likely across the area, and could exceed 2"/hr
across parts of Long Island, NYC, and Union, Essex, & Hudson
counties.

In addition, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for NYC,
Essex, Union, and Hudson counties through 8pm. These areas
experienced the greatest heating earlier in the day and have been
able to build the most instability. The greatest threat with any
severe storms will be strong damaging winds.

As the evening progresses, the boundary to gradually sink south
of the region while at the same time the developing wave rides
along it to the northeast. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
gradually decrease from northwest to southeast after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will continue to gradually sink south during the day
on Friday as the low exits to the east. Any lingering rainfall
Friday morning will come to an end, with likely only a few
lingering showers across far eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut by afternoon. Skies will clear through the day as
high pressure begins to build in from the northwest.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Friday, with highs
only rising into the mid 70s. Under mostly clear skies,
overnight lows will range from the mid 50s in typically colder
outlying locations to the mid 60s in NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure and zonal flow aloft will result in dry
weather and seasonable temperatures through at least Tuesday.
Thereafter, an upper trough over the Midwest begins to push east
towards the region on Wednesday, with rain chances returning to
the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

Followed the NBM with little change during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front slowly moves in and stalls over the region today,
before pushing just to the south tonight.

Showers/rain becomes more widespread with a TEMPO group for
TSRA. Cigs lower to MVFR with pockets of IFR vsbys in any
heavier rain or thunderstorms. IFR cigs are more likely towards
00z. Rain continues through the night with the steadiest /
heaviest rain subsiding towards 04z at most terminals. A lighter
rain prevails for the remainder of tonight and into Friday
morning.

E/NE winds 10-15 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts by 04-06Z
tonight. Winds will remain gusty through the day on Friday.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There remains uncertainty in the timing of gusts arriving after 00z
out of the E/NE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: Mainly MVFR in the morning as showers end early with winds
NE10-17g25kt. VFR develops in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR. NE winds gusts 15-20 kt early, diminishing by
afternoon.

Sunday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on all waters from this
evening through Friday evening. Winds will become ENE this
evening and increase, with gusts to around 30 kt expected on
the ocean waters and 25 kt elsewhere. Seas will also begin to
build, reaching 5 ft on the ocean by daybreak Friday. Winds will
subside Friday evening, but seas could remain elevated through
Saturday morning. Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are expected
on all waters through early next week as high pressure remains
in control.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area through 8am
Friday with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall expected.
Rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches with localized amounts up to
5 inches across the southern portions of the CWA. Rainfall
rates could exceed 2+ inches per hour at times.

WPC has extended a moderate risk of excessive rainfall into all
of northeast New Jersey, NYC, and portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley and far southwest Connecticut. The rest of the area
remains in a slight risk. Urban, poor drainage and riverine
flash flooding will all be possible.

Dry weather returns Friday night with no hydrologic concerns
through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches today
due to a 1-3 ft S/SE swell and 1 to 2 ft wind waves. Rip
currents likely increase to high by Friday given increased
waves, 5 ft surf height, and a persistent 15-25kt E/NE flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Flood Watch through Friday morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FEB
NEAR TERM...FEB/BR
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...20
MARINE...FEB
HYDROLOGY...FEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...